It has been a long long time since I’ve written a blog post. However, it’s time to make election predictions. So here goes mine.
I predict that this Tuesday President Barack Obama will be re-elected for a second term. I predict a national popular vote margin of 51.5% to 48.5% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 332 to 206 for Barack Obama.
Here are my state-by-state battleground predictions (excluding third party candidates):
Obama will win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney will win North Carolina.
Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 49%
Florida: Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5%
Iowa: Obama 52%, Romney 48%
Nevada: Obama 53%, Romney 47%
Ohio: Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5%
Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 47%
New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 49%
North Carolina: Romney 50.5%, Obama 49.5%
Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, Romney 47%
Virginia: Obama 51.7%, Romney 48.3%
Wisconsin: Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5%
So, why will Obama win and Romney lose? I think the American people seldom, if ever, elect a candidate if that candidate’s campaign is essentially a bet against America. Romney’s bet was that the American economy would tank – he bet wrong. We are left now with a flailing Romney campaign that looks at positive jobs numbers and tries to spin them as something bad for America. I think the collective wisdom of the electorate can see that for what it is: a bet against America. That bet translates into a failed campaign for the presidency.
President Obama is pulling America out of an economic mess left him by the previous administration. The steady turn from losing 800,000 jobs a month when he took office to gaining over 170,000 a month as of this month is positive for America. Denying that reality was never a winning strategy for Romney. I think Tuesday will bear that out in an Obama win.
Now all that remains is for the American people to vote and make history once again. So, go vote.