Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

Israel will negotiate for the release of two soldiers whose capture by Hezbollah militants on July 12 sparked the Israeli offensive in Lebanon, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said. - AFP, August 13, 2006

Government spokesman Gideon Meir said Israel wanted the soldiers returned "immediately without any precondition — no negotiation." - CNN, July 12, 2006

As we lurch toward a cessation of hostilities, it is worth asking if all the death and destruction was worth it? Israel is pulling out all stops right now before the ceasefire to try to save Ehud Olmert’s job. Hezbollah is gleefully firing its rockets into Israel before the clock runs out. Over a 1000 Lebanese civilians dead, over 100 Israeli soldiers dead, nearly 50 Israeli civilians dead, Lebanon in shambles. Was it worth it?

I have stated my reasons in previous posts for why I think this was a strategic blunder for Israel here, here and here. What do you the reader think?

The Bush Administration is maneuvering mightily at the United Nations to give Ehud Olmert an exit without humiliation. Olmert for his part is trying to create facts on the ground (troops in Lebanon) as quickly as possible to give the veneer of victory. However, the damage has already been done. Israel’s aura of invincibility is all but gone.

The current draft of the "ceasefire" resolution at the UN Security Council is probably not worth the paper it is written on. As many have noted, the primary point of contention is that it allows Israel to occupy Southern Lebanon and continue what it deems "defensive" military actions. The key paragraph from the resolution states:

OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

This paragraph has already been rejected by Lebanon and Hezbollah. Any resolution that leaves Israeli forces on Lebanese soil will not be acceptable to Hezbollah. Nonetheless, the United States hopes to hammer the resolution through the Security Council. To do so, all that has to happen is that Russia and China do not invoke their vetoes. Given the violence on the ground, it is likely that no vetoes will be cast and this resolution, if put to a vote, will pass.

The passage of this resolution will not stop the fighting. In fact, it may even escalate it. However, it will give Ehud Olmert some breathing room until a second resolution authorizing a UN force in Lebanon is passed. In Olmert’s fantasy, an UN force will be inserted into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah - a task that the IDF has proven itself incapable of doing. In reality, no country will contribute troops to a UN force to disarm Hezbollah. Without a political solution, Israel will be left to occupy Southern Lebanon again. Ehud Olmert will learn the lessons of history first hand.

Regardless of the direction of this conflict, the damage to Israel’s deterrence has already been done. In 3 weeks of fighting, Israel has failed to crush Hezbollah. That was not unexpected. However, in 3 weeks of constant bombardment and ground assaults, Israel has failed to stop Hezbollah rockets from hitting deep within Israel. That is a massive strategic failure for Israel. Israel has proven itself incapable of defending against a lightly armed militia with a stockpile of unguided rockets. Against a more well armed foe, the toll on Israel might have been severe.

Time is now Israel’s foe - both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, the longer this conflict drags on, the weaker Israel looks. In the long term, Israel’s foes will inevitably acquire more and more sophisticated weaponry. Israel’s deterrence capabilities will continue to weaken as it’s enemies gain in sophistication. At some point in the future, Israel will no longer be capable of making peace on its own terms. When that tipping point is reached, the peace proposals that Israel has so far rejected will start to look awfully good, yet may no longer be available.

This gambit of Olmert’s was always unwinnable. The only question really was how much damage would Israel’s deterrence capability suffer. After weeks of fighting, it is safe to say that Israel’s deterrence is severely weakened. Israel and Ehud Olmert again have two choices to salvage this mess. They can climb down or they can escalate. It appears now that they have chosen to escalate. The hope apparently is that by causing massive destruction in Lebanon Israel will have shown its might and deterred its enemies:

A senior General Staff officer told Haaretz that for the first time since the fighting began, Israel plans to attack strategic infrastructure targets and symbols of the Lebanese government.

Other than bombing the Beirut airport to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah, Israel has hitherto not targeted Lebanon’s infrastructure, insisting that it is only at war with Hezbollah, not with the Lebanese government or people.

However, the officer said, "we are now in a process of renewed escalation. We will continue hitting everything that moves in Hezbollah - but we will also hit strategic civilian infrastructure."

So, escalation it is. As Ehud Olmert escalates and the neo-cons in Washington cheer him on, the people of Lebanon and Israel continue to suffer. However, no amount of escalation will gain back what Israel has already lost - its deterrence.

Israel late Saturday night killed more than 60 Lebanese civilians including at least 34 children in an airstrike on a building in the Lebanese village of Qana. I was up last night blogging as part of the Blogathon 2006 charity event when the news flashed on CNN.

The Israeli defense of their actions was articulated last night by a very angry young IDF spokesman on CNN. He insisted that Israel was not to blame for killing civilians because of the following reasons:

• Hezbollah started it.
• Hezbollah fired rockets from around the village of Qana.
• Israel asked civilians to flee Southern Lebanon therefore cannot be held responsible for killing the ones who stayed behind.

In a combative interview with CNN International’s Shihab Rattansi, the IDF spokesman insisted that it was Hezbollah who was to blame and Israel was only defending herself. So, this is Israel’s idea of self-defense. Most sane people call this a war crime.

First, let’s list the facts:

• Israel fired a missile at a civilian building in Qana.
• Over 60 civilians were killed.
• Zero Hezbollah were killed. 

Last night, the CNN anchors kept asking the openly exasperated CNN reporters who had been to the scene if they had seen any rocket parts at the scene. To which one CNN reporter (I believe it was Karl Penhaul) replied, with frustration in his voice, that he had seen lots of dead children, and body parts, but he had yet to see a rocket part. Tonight as I write this, General David Grange is on CNN complaining that Hezbollah waits for Israelis to kill civilians and then videotapes the scene for political purposes. He complained that there was "overreaction" on the part of the international community. His only suggestion for Israel was that perhaps they should change tactics because they were losing the propaganda war.

I have news for General Grange, it was CNN who was on the scene of this one rather quickly. It was CNN reporters who were visibly shaken by this incident. No amount of spin from you or anyone else will wash away this war crime.

Here’s is how The Guardian newspaper saw the war crime:

It was an unremarkable three-storey building on the edge of town. But for two extended families, the Shalhoubs and the Hashems, it was a last refuge. They could not afford the extortionate taxi fares to Tyre and hoped that if they all crouched together on the ground floor they would be safe.

They were wrong. At about one in the morning, when some of the men were making late night tea, an Israeli bomb pulverised the house. Some witnesses describe two explosions a few minutes apart, with survivors desperately moving from one side of the building to the other before being hit by the second blast. By tonight, more than 60 bodies had been pulled from the rubble, said the Lebanese authorities, 34 of them children; there were only eight known survivors.

The bombing, the bloodiest single incident in Israel’s 18-day campaign against Hizbullah, drew instant condemnation from around the world and sparked furious protests outside the UN headquarters in Beirut. The Lebanese prime minister, Fouad Siniora, accused Israel of committing "war crimes" and called off a planned meeting with the US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice. Israel apologised for the loss of life but said it had been responding to rockets fired from the village.

Mohamad Qassim Shalhoub, a slim 38-year-old construction worker, emerged with a broken hand and minor injuries, but he lost his wife, five children and 45 members of his extended family. "Around one o’clock we heard a big explosion," he said. "I don’t remember anything after that, but when I opened my eyes I was lying on the floor and my head had hit the wall. There was silence. I didn’t hear anything for a while, but then heard some screams."

"I said: ‘Allahu Akbar [God is great]. Don’t be scared. I will come.’ There was blood on my face. I wiped it and looked for my son but couldn’t find him. I took three children out - my four-year-old nephew, a girl and her sister. I went outside and screamed for help and three men came and went back inside. There was shelling everywhere. We heard the planes. I was so exhausted I could not go back inside again. "

Ibrahim Shalhoub described how he and his cousin had set out to get help after the bombs hit. "It was dark and there was so much smoke. Nobody could do anything till dawn," he said, his eyes still darting around nervously. "I couldn’t stop crying, we couldn’t help them."

Said Rabab Yousif had her son on her knee when the first bomb fell.

"I couldn’t see anything for 10 minutes and then I saw my son sitting in my lap and covered with rubble," she recalled. "I removed the dirt and the stones I freed him and handed him to the people who were inside rescuing us.

"I then started freeing myself, my hands were free, and then went with two men to rescue my husband. We pulled him from the rubble. I tried to find Zainab, my little daughter, but it was too dark and she was covered deep in rubble I was too scared that they might bomb us again so I just left her and ran outside." She was in hospital with her son and husband, who was paralysed and in a coma. There was no news of her daughter.

In addition to being a war crime, this is also an act of cowardice by Israel. Faced with the launching of a rocket containing up to a 90-pound warhead, Israel’s response was to launch a bunker buster to destroy a nearby building. Given that these rockets, the Katyushas, are small enough to be man portable, what is the military justification of using a bunker buster bomb to destroy a mobile launcher? What was Israel trying to achieve?

It seems to me if Israel wanted to take down a guerrilla force like Hezbollah, they would engage in ground combat with them. But, perhaps it is easier to bomb buildings full of civilians rather than to fight men with guns. That is an act of a coward. At the beginning of this conflict, Israel’s military already stated Israel’s intention to go after civilians and civilian infrastructure:

Israel called Wednesday’s abductions an act of war, and Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, head of Israel’s Northern Command, said he has "comprehensive plans" to battle Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, not just in its southern stronghold.

"This affair is between Israel and the state of Lebanon," Adam said. "Where to attack? Once it is inside Lebanon, everything is legitimate — not just southern Lebanon, not just the line of Hezbollah posts." (Watch as Israeli forces enter Lebanon — 2:29)

Earlier, Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, told Israel’s Channel 10, "If the soldiers are not returned, we will turn Lebanon’s clock back 20 years."

"Everything is legitimate" indeed! Seldom have war criminals declared their intentions so plainly ahead of the crime.

Who else is complicit? Why, it is the Bush Administration. Fragments found at the site of the bomb that murdered the women and children had this label on it: "GUIDED BOMB BSU 37/B". That is the label of an American 5000 pound bunker buster, courtesy of the Bush Administration. Just last week the Bush Administration rushed a new shipment to Israel so they could blow up more civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Today, as the entire world demanded an immediate ceasefire, the United States stood alone at the United Nations in rejecting any cessation of hostilities. Just as it did last week, the United States has blocked a ceasefire. In doing so, it is complicit in this Israeli war crime.

The most disingenuous comment on this tragedy so far has come from none other than George W Bush:

President Bush on Sunday renewed his call for a "sustainable peace" in the Middle East while his administration urged Israel to avoid civilian casualties in the wake of a deadly airstrike in Lebanon.

"Our hope for peace for boys and girls everywhere extends across the world, especially in the Middle East," the president said before the start of a T-ball game at the White House.

"Today’s actions in the Middle East remind us that friends and allies must work together for a sustainable peace particularly for the sake of children," Bush told the teams of youngsters and visitors. [Emphasis added by me.]

George W Bush pays lip service to the killing of Lebanese children while supplying the very bombs that killed them. A reporter asked Mr. Bush after his comments if he was putting principle ahead of lives. Mr. Bush walked away without answering - no doubt with thoughts of his "culture of life" agenda dancing through his otherwise empty thoughtscape.

Ehud Olmert began this orgy of killing to rescue 2 Israeli soldiers. What has he achieved so far? He has killed civilians in their homes. He has killed civilians as the fled the carnage. He has killed civilians in ambulances. His warplanes have strafed civilians as they lay dying on the highways of Lebanon. His missiles have found their mark on the helpless forms of sleeping infants.

What has he achieved? He has failed to damage Hezbollah. In fact, Hezbollah is stronger today than they were at the beginning of this conflict. Hezbollah is stronger today because of Ehud Olmert’s actions and George W Bush’s inactions. The only certainty is that the blood of Lebanese children is on Olmert’s hands. This stain will not wash off - no matter how much spin and what justification is spun by Israel or the Bush Administration.

Israel says it needs two more weeks to bring Hezbollah to heel. Instead what Israel will get is two more weeks of killing civilians. Hezbollah will do just fine.

This war is over save the killing.

The only saving grace of this moronic pissing contest in the Middle East for me is that at least they had the decency to wait until the World Cup ended. The rest of this nasty business is an exercise in stupidity. Israel has now declared that they will no longer be satisfied by the return of their soldiers. Their goal now is to destroy Hezbollah, they say. Well, good luck with that. Seeing how successful Israel was in destroying Hezbollah during the 22 years it spent occupying Lebanon, I won’t exactly hold my breath.

History and common sense have never been barriers to rash action in the Middle East. This time is proving to be no different. In response to the taking of 2 of its soldiers, Israel felt compelled, like it did in Gaza, to exact revenge on the people of Lebanon. The logic appears to be that somehow Hezbollah will cry uncle if Israel bombs enough bridges, destroys every inch of Beirut’s International Airport, blows up a random civilian or a dozen. The hope appears to be that somehow Hezbollah will buckle after seeing the suffering of the Lebanese people - a feat that 22 years of Israeli attacks on Lebanon failed to achieve. So in that vain hope Israel is methodically sending Lebanon back in time one 500-pound bomb at a time. Apparently, Hezbollah did not get the memo. They have responded by declaring "Open War" against Israel and have blown up an Israeli warship using a poor man’s Tomahawk missile.

Almost exactly a decade after the last massive Israeli-Hezbollah spat, the same game plan is playing out. On April 11, 1996, CNN reported the following:

Israeli aircraft launched an intense military assault against the militant Islamic group Hezbollah Thursday, striking targets in Beirut as well as in eastern and southern Lebanon.

It is the first time since 1982 that Israel forces have attacked Beirut.

At least one civilian was killed and at least five were wounded in Thursday’s raid as Israeli helicopter gunships blasted Hezbollah areas in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

The Beirut raids came hours after Israeli aircraft pounded Hezbollah headquarters near the Lebanese cities of Tyre and Baalbek.

Israel officials said all aircraft have returned safely.

The attacks follow weeks of growing tensions between both sides. On Tuesday, about 30 Israelis were injured when Hezbollah rocketed villages in northern Israel.

The situation had deteriorated significantly by April 14, 1996:

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) — Artillery and rocket attacks continued to pound both sides of the Lebanon border Sunday as Israel and Hezbollah militants bombarded targets in south Lebanon and north Israel.

In the United States, the White House called on Hezbollah to cease its "provocative" actions, but the militants vowed to turn northern Israel into "fiery hell" and launched more rockets.

One Hezbollah rocket hit an empty lot at the United Nations peacekeeping force headquarters in Naquora, Lebanon. The Katyusha rocket, believed to have fallen short of its target, caused no casualties.

Israeli forces, attacking areas in Beirut and surrounding suburbs for the fourth day, knocked out a power station, and at least three Lebanese civilians were killed in the air raids on south Lebanon. Some 400,000 people in the area have been forced to flee.

Hezbollah’s rockets, falling at a rate of one every 20 minutes on Sunday, also struck a school, but no casualties were reported.

Hezbollah also announced an expansion of its bombing efforts. Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, said that squads of suicide bombers from a "brigade of martyrdom-lovers" will attack Israeli targets to retaliate against the bombings.

That particular spat came to an end after the United States stepped in to mediate a cease-fire. Years later, Israel unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon and subsequently swapped prisoners with Hezbollah.

Some in Israel and the United States viewed the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a humiliating defeat and as an act of betrayal. It is a defeat that Ehud Olmert has now set about to rectify, much to the glee of the neo-conservatives in the United States.

During the escalation of 1996, there were grown ups at the White House who delicately talked Israel and Hezbollah (through proxies) off the ledge. There were moderating forces who were able to put the brakes on an all out conflagration. No such forces exist in Washington today. Instead of trying to cool the rhetoric the Bush Administration has been adding fuel to the fire with pronouncements emanating from the White House and from the anti-diplomat John Bolton at the UN Security Council. President Bush blamed Syria for instigating Hezbollah:

And having said that, Israel has a right to defend herself. Every nation must defend herself against terrorist attacks and the killing of innocent life. It’s a necessary part of the 21st century.

Secondly, we — whatever Israel does, though, should not weaken the Siniora government in Lebanon. We’re concerned about the fragile democracy in Lebanon. We’ve been working very hard through the United Nations and with partners to strengthen the democracy in Lebanon. The Lebanese people have democratic aspirations, which is being undermined by the actions and activities of Hezbollah.

Thirdly, Syria needs to be held to account. Syria is housing the militant wing of Hamas. Hezbollah has got an active presence in Syria. The truth of the matter is, if we really want there to be — the situation to settle down, the soldiers need to be returned, and President Assad needs to show some leadership toward peace.

Mr. Bush’s UN Ambassador took it a step further today at the Security Council and blamed both Iran and Syria:

Syria and Iran must be held accountable for their role in international terrorism, he said.  Syria supported Hamas, while Iran supported Hizbollah.  No reckoning with Hizbollah would be adequate, without reckoning with its sponsor, Iran.  He again called on Syria to arrest a Hamas leader and recognized terrorist that resided on its territory.  He welcomed the decision to send a United Nations team to the region.  His country was engaged as well, with senior officials in the region.  He called on all parties in the region to accept their responsibility for security in the region. 

Israel claims both Iran and Syria are behind the Hezbollah kidnapping. With Washington reinforcing that view, a real possibility exists that Israel will take this opportunity to strike targets in Iran. Israel has repeatedly threatened preemptive strikes on Iran to prevent it becoming a nuclear power. With this latest spat with Hezbollah and Israel’s insistence that Tehran instigated it, Israel can now be seen as defending itself if it chooses to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Already Israel has struck the international airport in Beirut ostensively to prevent the shipment of arms from Iran and to prevent Hezbollah from flying the abducted Israeli soldiers to Iran. The next logical level of escalation is a strike on Iran.

A strike on Iran may sound awfully good on paper to conservative pundits in Washington and in the charged atmosphere in Tel Aviv. However, in the Middle East, actions seldom result in proportionate reaction. In a culture of escalation the likelihood of a major regional conflict looms large. With some in the Bush Administration and neo-conservative circles in Washington salivating at the prospect of an attack on Iran, common sense is in short supply. The United States is likely to sit this one out until it is too late.

Bush may yet get his war on Iran. But as in the case of Iraq, he has probably not thought through the consequences of a feel good attack on the mullahs in Tehran.

Americans should look forward to another nice war brought to us through the lenses of CNN. It would all be great fun except for the inconvenient truth that every thrilling blast that we see on television usually results in the end of many unfinished lives.

On June 28, 2006 the Israel Defense Forces reentered the Gaza Strip ostensibly to win the release of Corporal Gilad Shalit. Corporal Shalit had been kidnapped by Palestinian militants 3 days earlier. The Israeli operation has been codenamed "Operation Summer Rain".

Since the attacks began Israel has destroyed roads, bridges, water plants, and electrical power stations. Israel has arrested Palestinian parliament members and targeted the Prime Minister after declaring their intention to assassinate him. The attack on Gaza has left the 1.4 million inhabitants in the densely populated Strip without electric power, running water, and with very little food. The United Nations has warned that the already dire conditions of the Palestinian people are now on the verge of a humanitarian disaster. Amidst the suffering, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has ordered more intensified attacks on the Palestinians:

The strikes appeared to be a direct response to the instructions of the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who told subordinates at a cabinet meeting on Sunday that he intended to make the lives of Gazans ever more miserable until the captured soldier, 19-year-old Cpl. Gilad Shalit, was released. But Israel also yielded somewhat to outside pressure on Sunday by allowing a limited supply of fuel and food into Gaza.

Mr. Olmert, whose air force has already bombed Gaza’s bridges, crippled its only power plant, shelled the Palestinian prime minister’s office here and subjected all 1.4 million Gaza residents to night after night of sleep-depriving sonic booms, said he had ordered the military and government "to do everything in order to bring Gilad back home."

The message from Israel is clear: surrender the soldier or all Palestinians will suffer. Asked on CNN’s Late Edition if the Israeli assault was harming the Palestinian people, Israeli Vice Premier Shimon Peres said that if the Palestinians hand over the soldier the attacks will stop. So the Palestinians should stop complaining and hand over the soldier:

ROBERTS: Vice Premier Peres, the question is, is this operation harming the Palestinian people as much or more than it’s harming the Hamas government?

PERES: Well, they can get rid of it in one moment. If they would release the soldier, the operation will be over in a moment’s time. It is up to them. But they cannot keep the soldier as a hostage and then complain.

By the way, when it comes to electricity, we checked beforehand. If the hospitals have generators to supply the necessary electricity to the people who are in hospital, we wouldn’t bomb otherwise. But if they want to change the situation, it’s in their hands. They don’t have to complain.

So, once again, the Palestinian people will have to endure more suffering at the hands of the Israelis until the latest "point of no return" is crossed and magically the status quo is again restored. The politicians will argue, people will be killed on both sides, blood will be on everyone’s hands, extremists on both sides will continue to drive the agenda, and through it all Palestinians who have been refugees on their own land since the Nakba will continue to bare the brunt of the insanity.

Nakba is the Arabic word for "catastrophe". The Palestinians refer to the exodus during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War from their homes in what is now the State of Israel as the Nakba. But as with all aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the cause of the Nakba is hotly disputed. It is so disputed that the fact that I, in this post, am calling it the Nakba will likely garner some criticism. The Israelis and Palestinians it appears operate from two sets of facts. The irony is that with two sets of fact they both want to occupy one piece of land.

Regardless of whether the Palestinians left willingly or were forced out, the result has been the creation of a refugee nation of Palestinians who have lived in miserable conditions ever since. Since 1948 the people of Palestine have been used as pawns between the Arabs on one side and the Israelis on the other. The Arabs have always used the Palestinians as a tool to achieve their own domestic agendas. The Arabs have always given the Palestinians just enough to survive, but never more. The Israelis on the other hand are suffering the results of an incomplete exodus of the Palestinians. Israel has a refugee problem within its self-declared borders. It has a population that it does not want and cannot seem to get rid off. Add to that the fact that every now and then the Palestinians rise up against the Israelis violently in self-determination and you have the makings of a perpetual Nakba.

Instead of Peace we are treated to a "Peace Process". The "Peace Process" is a euphemism for a level of violence with acceptable losses of civilian lives on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. This Nakba has its own check and balance and always reaches a macabre equilibrium. Whenever a possibility is raised for meaningful progress in the "Peace Process", extremists on either one side or the other will cause just enough damage to scuttle the progress. The "Peace Process" unfortunately is designed with a built-in veto by any insignificant extremist that chooses to scuttle progress. Thus, equilibrium is always reached and the Palestinian people’s status as a refugee nation is guaranteed.

In the latest incident, just when there was news that Hamas might accept Israel’s right to exist, the inevitable match was lit to burn the prospect to the ground. As with all assaults on the Palestinian people this assault will soon end. There will be horse trading between Israeli and Palestinian politicians and both sides will step back from the brink. Ultimately Israel will likely get its soldier back and Hamas militants will likely get the release of some Palestinian prisoners in exchange (though, likely not right away to avoid an appearance of quid pro quo). Everything will be back to "normal". The Palestinian people will be left to pick the dead amidst the rubble and try to move on.

The Nakba will continue.