Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

Randy Scheunemann is out of a job:

Randy Scheunemann, a senior foreign policy adviser to John McCain, was fired from the Arizona senator’s campaign last week for what one aide called "trashing" the campaign staff, three senior McCain advisers tell CNN.

One of the aides tells CNN that campaign manager Rick Davis fired Scheunemann after determining that he had been in direct contact with journalists spreading "disinformation" about campaign aides, including Nicolle Wallace and other officials.

"He was positioning himself with Palin at the expense of John McCain’s campaign message," said one of the aides.

Senior campaign officials blame Schuenemann specifically for stories about the way Wallace and chief campaign strategist Steve Schmidt mishandled Palin’s rollout — stories that the campaign says threw them off message in the critical final weeks of the campaign.

Another aide said McCain personally was "very disappointed by Randy," who worked for McCain for many years in the Senate.

Scheunemann became close with Palin during her debate prep process.

I am sure if things don’t work out with Sarah Palin, Randy can always get a lobbying gig with the government of Georgia.

Comedy gold.

11PM November 4, 2008 NBC News projects that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

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After a long two years, we are about to see the verdict of the American people.

I voted this morning at my local polling station in Loudoun County. The line was long but the voters were determined. If Barack Obama takes Virginia, Loudoun County will have much to do with it.

I took my daughter with me. I wanted to share with her what I believe will be the most consequential vote I will ever cast in my lifetime.

In the afternoon, after an urgent call for umbrellas went out from the Obama campaign, I dropped one off at the Obama office near my place of work. The Obama office was buzzing with volunteers, and it seemed like every street corner in Arlington had a Obama volunteer on their way to get out the vote. Northern Virginia is Obama country - perhaps enough so to flip Virginia to the Democrats for the first time since 1964.

There is a palpable excitement here in Northern Virginia. In 30 minutes, the polls close in Virginia. We will soon know if Virginia will propel Barack Obama to the White House.

Live blogging below:

7:03pm No surprises. Kentucky called for McCain. Vermont called for Obama. Virginia too early to call at poll closing.

7:05pm NBC news is projecting Mark Warner is the new Senator from the state of Virginia Indiana is too close to call - a very bad sign for McCain (Bush won this state by 20 points in 2004). Still waiting for Virginia returns.

7:16pm Early county by county returns from Indiana are looking very good for Barack Obama. Obama is performing well in surprising parts of the state. A long way to go - we will see.

7:26pm In early numbers from deep red counties in Virginia, Obama is doing as well as Jim Webb did in 2006.

7:30pm Polls close. North Carolina is too close to call - a very good sign for Barack Obama. Ohio is too early to call.

7:36pm MSNBC lets slip that Obama is ahead in Ohio even though it is too early to call.

7:45pm Obama doing much better than Webb in Culpeper. This is a sign of how much the demographic push outward from Northern Virginia has helped Democrats. This bodes well for Northern Virginia counties which have not reported in yet.

7:54pm Virginia numbers coming in very slowly. No Northern Virginia counties have begun reporting. In early numbers, Obama is leading in Henrico County. I do not believe McCain can win Virginia without winning in Henrico. McCain is also barely winning Chesterfield County with nearly 50% reporting. McCain needs a much bigger margin in Chesterfield if he is to carry Virginia.

8:00pm Pennsylvania called for Obama as soon as polls close! See, you guys were sweating for no reason Time to breathe a huge collective sigh of relief!

8:15pm With nearly all of Chesterfield and Culpeper reporting, Obama has outperformed Jim Webb in these critical red counties for McCain. Now it is all up to Northern Virginia and the Tidewater cities to bring it home for Obama. So far, I like what I see out of Virginia.

8:25pm Arlington County starting to report. 2% of precincts in so far. Nothing yet from Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William in Northern Virginia.

8:29pm Correction, Fairfax is reporting, not Arlington. I must be tired So far, Fairfax, with only 2% reporting, is 58% to 41% Obama.

8:33pm Big news out of North Carolina. Kay Hagan is the projected winner over Liddy Dole in the NC senate race. I guess Dole’s disgusting attack ad didn’t quite work out for her.

8:37pm MSNBC changes Virginia from "too early to call" to "too close to call".

8:39pm Northern Virginia starting to come in. Obama up in Loudoun and Prince William in early numbers. Unsurprisingly up strong in Arlington and Fairfax.

8:57pm Obama is closing fast. Currently its 50% McCain and 48% Obama with a small portion of Northern Virginia beginning to report. Obama is cleaning up big in Richmond city. Amazingly, Obama is leading strongly in Henrico County.

8:59pm New Mexico and Colorado coming up in a minute. Bite your nails!

9:00pm This one is for my boss. Wisconsin is projected for Obama.

9:04pm Arizona is too close to call! That can’t be. New Mexico and Colorado too early to call.

9:14pm Chuck Todd says Virginia is closer than they expected. I see Obama leading Loudoun and Prince William. Fairfax is coming in at 57%, but with only 15% reporting. Obama is outperforming how Webb did in Tidewater cities. It will be tight but Obama is narrowing the gap as the returns come in. Obama is now only behind 25,000 votes. I really like his chances.

9:25pm This election is over. Ohio goes to Obama. Now, Virginia, don’t embarrass me

9:29pm The vote difference between McCain and Obama is now only about 5000 votes, with Obama gaining fast. There are atleast 37,000 more votes for Obama in Fairfax county. I like our chances in Virginia. Obama is cleaning up in key Tidewater cities. He is outperforming Webb.

9:33pm Think about this for a second. Obama is only 5,000 votes away from flipping Virginia with only 26% of Fairfax County reporting. Now, that is amazing.

9:34pm Landslide watch: New Mexico called for Barack Obama, the next president of the United States. This is shaping up to be a remarkable evening for America and the world.

9:41pm Rats! Mitch McConnell will hold on to his senate seat in Kentucky. Let’s hope we see Chambliss gone in Georgia.

9:44pm Obama is less than 3000 votes behind in Virginia with still only 26% of Fairfax county reporting. I am so proud of Loudoun County - Obama is starting to pull away. Webb turned Loudoun blue, and Obama is turning it bluer.

9:49pm I just went and hugged my daughter good night and told her that Barack Obama will be our next President. Her response was "Woohoo!".

10:02pm With polls closing, Iowa has just been called for Obama. He is well on his way to making it official.

10:05pm Nevada too early to call, with Obama leading. And, Fairfax County only reporting 35% and Obama takes the lead in Virginia. With Obama’s leads in Loudoun and Prince William, his solid performance in Virginia Beach, and a ton of Obama votes still to come from Fairfax, Virginia is blue and I am loving it.

10:21pm There are atleast 32,000 more Obama votes to come out of Fairfax County in Virginia. I don’t see anything else in the state that gets McCain to close that gap. North Carolina and Florida look very good for Obama. In Indiana, I think Obama has just enough votes to close the gap - but it will be a nail biter either way.

10:30pm The big story in Virginia are the numbers coming out of Loudoun County, Prince William County and Henrico County (around Richmond). The demographics in Virginia look very good for Democrats. The registration numbers in Northern Virginia this cycle were staggering. The top 3 counties in Virginia for registration growth were from Northern Virginia - Loudoun and Prince William among them. Having lived here off and on for 3 decades, I have seen the growth push outward from the Washington Beltway. What we here see on the ground in the outer counties is backed up by the registration numbers and the voting patterns.

10:57pm Robbie and Rumi point out in the comments that Fox News has called Virginia for Obama. What took them so long. But, we already knew this at this blog  :) 

11:00pm I do not really know what to write at this moment. America did good tonight. Change has come.

11:10pm NBC News calls Virginia for Barack Obama. Virginia, yes we can!

11:16pm NBC News projects Colorado for Barack Obama.

11:18pm NBC News projects Florida for Barack Obama.

11:24pm John McCain is delivering his concession speech. He is trying hard to put out the fires of hatred that his campaign and his running mate have deliberately stoked. It pains me that someone like John McCain took his campaign to such nasty depths.

11:27pm Indiana has been called for Barack Obama by NBC News.

11:30pm Oops. I must be tired. Indiana has not yet been called.

12:00am President-elect Barack Obama is on stage now at Grant Park in Chicago. What a truly amazing moment.

12:18am Yes We Can.

12:35pm Missouri has narrowed. There may just be enough left in the cities to pull Obama into a win by a hair. Indiana and North Carolina look very good for Obama also. Montana will probably not happen for Obama.

2:10am NBC News calls Indiana for Barack Obama. Missouri is now within 554 votes. Obama has plenty of votes in Jackson County to surpass John McCain by about 1500 votes or so. It looks now like Missouri will go to Obama in a squeaker (with probably a recount).

2:19am Two other counties outstanding in Missouri that I missed. It will be even tighter it seems.

2:22am North Carolina shows 100% reporting with Obama leading by 12,000 votes. The networks have not called it yet. Its not clear to me why no call has been made.

2:35am Jackson County has come in and Obama is 398 votes short. Two counties remain. Missouri is insanely close.

8:20am North Carolina is done and in Obama’s column, but still waiting for provisional ballots. McCain holds a slim lead in Missouri after all counties finished their reporting, but provisional ballot still need to be counted. Missouri may still flip to Obama with a margin this thin. We may still see 375 electoral votes for Obama, but 364 at the least

The midnight voting results are in from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. For the first time since 1968, the tiny village of Dixville Notch has gone Democratic.

The official results:

Barack Obama 15, John McCain 6

This is a very nice way to begin Election Day

America is poised to make history. Go Vote.

I still stand by my prediction from last week:

I predict a national popular vote margin of 53.2% to 46.8% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 375 to 163 for Barack Obama.

Here are my state-by-state battleground predictions (leaving out third party candidates):

Colorado: Obama 53.2%, McCain 46.8%

Florida: Obama 50.5%, McCain 49.5%

Indiana: Obama 50.1%, McCain 49.9%

Missouri: Obama 50.2%, McCain 49.8%

Nevada: Obama 53.9%, McCain 46.1%

New Mexico: Obama 55.4%, McCain 44.6%

North Carolina: Obama 50.5%, McCain 49.5%

Ohio: Obama 50.6%, McCain 49.4%

Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 48%

The above chart is the Pollster.com national polling average heading into Tuesday’s election day. Barack Obama heads into Election Day polling well above 50% and expanding his advantage in the national polls.

With the final Virginia polling coming in, Barack Obama also goes into Election Day in the state of Virginia holding steady above 50% in the Pollster.com polling average. The Virginia polling is real bad news for John McCain and the Republicans. The news is so bad for Republicans that my local congressman, Frank Wolf, is running as an "independent" politician and a "centrist". He makes no mention of being a Republican in his ads, nor does he mention John McCain.

To reinforce these numbers, I just received the following email from Gallup:

The final USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicts Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, as he holds a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote.

On their website Gallup offers more detail:

PRINCETON, NJ — The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll — based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking — shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup’s last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama’s final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

It has been a long campaign. Only one more day of campaigning to go. The polling is nearly over. On Tuesday, America chooses.

John McCain was on Saturday Night Live last night. The opening skit featured McCain and Tina Fey as Sarah Palin hawking merchandise on QVC. It was pretty funny stuff, especially when Palin/Fey went rogue. McCain also pitched "McCain Fine Gold" with Cindy McCain demonstrating the merchandise.

John McCain has finally bagged the endorsement that will matter in this election.

Here’s the endorsement:

DICK CHENEY: And in three days we’ll choose a new steward for the presidency and begin a new chapter in our history. It’s the biggest decision that we make together as Americans. A lot turns on the outcome. I believe the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain. John is a man who understands the danger facing America. He’s a man who has looked into the face of evil and not flinched. He’s a man who’s comfortable with responsibility and has been since he joined the armed forces at the age of 17. He’s earned our support and confidence, and the time is now to make him commander-in-chief. I’m delighted to support John McCain and I’m pleased that he’s chosen a running mate with executive talent, toughness and common sense, our next vice president in Sarah Pali

Congratulations to John McCain for securing this all-important endorsement.

Ken Duberstein, President Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff, has crossed the aisle and endorsed Barack Obama. He also strongly criticized John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin:

Says former Reagan Chief of Staff and longtime GOP insider Ken Duberstein of John McCain’s VP selection: "Even at McDonalds, you’re interviewed three times before you’re given a job."

It appears that the Palin pick is the "permission" that many Republicans have needed to support Barack Obama. John McCain went for a culture war at the expense of judgment and experience with his Palin pick, and with his pick he lost independents and non-culture warrior Republicans.

Do not underestimate the significance of Ken Duberstein’s endorsement. It is not that a Duberstein endorsement will move votes, it likely will not. But this endorsement represents a more general trend amongst Republicans. There are many Duberstein type Republicans in Northern Virginia, as well as elsewhere, that represent the non-culture warrior wing of the Republican Party. I would expect a fair number of these Republicans to come out and vote for Barack Obama next Tuesday. If that happens, we are likely to see Obama doing better than the 60% he needs in Northern Virginia to carry the state.

If a number of traditional red states flip to Barack Obama next Tuesday, we will look back at John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as a major contributing factor.

I have been getting a lot of worried emails from Obama supporters about Pennsylvania. So, I figure it is worth posting about what might be happening in Pennsylvania and what we might expect on election day.

The McCain campaign has said that they are actively going after Pennsylvania, and news organizations are reporting that the polls are tightening. This has led to a lot of nail biting on the Democratic side.

So, first let’s look at the polling numbers.

A look at the composite of all polls this year at Pollster.com shows that John McCain has never polled above 45% in Pennsylvania vis a vis Barack Obama. Even when McCain got the dead cat bounce after the Sarah Palin announcement he did not cross 45% in Pennsylvania. Since Obama locked up the Democratic nomination, John McCain has never led in the polls in Pennsylvania.

A closer look at the polling composite from September and October (with sensitive smoothing) shows that the race was within a few points, with Obama leading, until the Wall Street crisis hit in mid September. In the aftermath of the crisis and the debates, Barack Obama has pulled away from John McCain and has been polling above 50% in Pennsylvania. At the same time, John McCain’s support dropped to below 40% from his high of around 45%. The economic crisis crystallized voter preferences. While Obama gained support from those previously undecided, McCain lost some of his existing support that he already had as voters apparently lost confidence in him due to his erratic behavior during the crisis.

As John McCain has begun to aggressively campaign in Pennsylvania, it appears some of his base has begun to come back to him. His poll numbers are creeping back up toward 45%. However, as McCain has gained support, Obama has not lost any of the support he gained in mid-September. Obama remains above 50%, even as some of those who had abandoned John McCain are now beginning to come back to him. This suggests that the supporters Obama has gained, due to his handling of the economic crisis and his debate performances, seem to not be susceptible to McCain’s message. So, while McCain’s base comes home and he moves back toward his high water mark of 45%, it does not appear he is gaining voters from Obama. Unless something dramatic happens in the next three days, Obama is in a very strong position to carry Pennsylvania next Tuesday, even if McCain somehow manages to break through his upper bound of 45%.

So, stop the nail biting.

As to why McCain decided to go after Pennsylvania, what choice did he have? He is trailing badly in the Southwest and is likely losing Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. He cannot win without carrying Pennsylvania, while holding Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana (not to mention North Dakota, Montana, Georgia and Arizona). A look at the electoral map makes clear that he had no choice but to go after Pennsylvania. McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit is a sign of weakness, not strength.

Now, you can make the argument that the polls are inaccurate. Perhaps. But, the polls are the best evidence we have right now of the state of the race. I am more comfortable judging the race based on the polls than on some nebulous "gut feeling". I refuse to go into a fetal position because of a "gut feeling" or because of McCain campaign spin. And you shouldn’t either.

This is no time to become complacent, but it is also not a time to succumb to fear on the cusp of success. Until the polls close next Tuesday, leave the worry aside, work hard to get the vote out and make sure you vote.

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger has endorsed John McCain. McCain cites Eagleburger when defending against Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama and Powell’s critique of Sarah Palin. But yesterday on NPR,  Eagleburger went off the reservation and told some truth about Sarah Palin (listen here):

Asked Thursday on National Public Radio if he thought Palin would be ready to take over in a crisis, Eagleburger said, "Of course not."

"I don’t think at the moment she is prepared to take over the brains of the presidency. I can name for you any number of other vice presidents who were not particularly up to it, either," Eagleburger said.

"So the question I think is, can she learn and would she be tough enough under the circumstances if she were asked to become president? Heaven forbid that that ever takes place," he said. "Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be adequate. I can’t say that she would be a genius in the job, but I think she would be enough to get us through a four-year — well, I hope not. … Get us through whatever period of time was necessary, and I devoutly hope that it would never be tested."

Today, Eagleburger went on Fox News to apologize for his momentary lapse into honesty. Clearly, the McCain campaign took him out to the woodshed. Watch this sad spectacle of a guy who was once America’s top diplomat grovel:

Eagleburger’s performance today was on par with another such retraction: