The Damage Has Already Been Done

The Bush Administration is maneuvering mightily at the United Nations to give Ehud Olmert an exit without humiliation. Olmert for his part is trying to create facts on the ground (troops in Lebanon) as quickly as possible to give the veneer of victory. However, the damage has already been done. Israel’s aura of invincibility is all but gone.

The current draft of the "ceasefire" resolution at the UN Security Council is probably not worth the paper it is written on. As many have noted, the primary point of contention is that it allows Israel to occupy Southern Lebanon and continue what it deems "defensive" military actions. The key paragraph from the resolution states:

OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

This paragraph has already been rejected by Lebanon and Hezbollah. Any resolution that leaves Israeli forces on Lebanese soil will not be acceptable to Hezbollah. Nonetheless, the United States hopes to hammer the resolution through the Security Council. To do so, all that has to happen is that Russia and China do not invoke their vetoes. Given the violence on the ground, it is likely that no vetoes will be cast and this resolution, if put to a vote, will pass.

The passage of this resolution will not stop the fighting. In fact, it may even escalate it. However, it will give Ehud Olmert some breathing room until a second resolution authorizing a UN force in Lebanon is passed. In Olmert’s fantasy, an UN force will be inserted into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah – a task that the IDF has proven itself incapable of doing. In reality, no country will contribute troops to a UN force to disarm Hezbollah. Without a political solution, Israel will be left to occupy Southern Lebanon again. Ehud Olmert will learn the lessons of history first hand.

Regardless of the direction of this conflict, the damage to Israel’s deterrence has already been done. In 3 weeks of fighting, Israel has failed to crush Hezbollah. That was not unexpected. However, in 3 weeks of constant bombardment and ground assaults, Israel has failed to stop Hezbollah rockets from hitting deep within Israel. That is a massive strategic failure for Israel. Israel has proven itself incapable of defending against a lightly armed militia with a stockpile of unguided rockets. Against a more well armed foe, the toll on Israel might have been severe.

Time is now Israel’s foe – both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, the longer this conflict drags on, the weaker Israel looks. In the long term, Israel’s foes will inevitably acquire more and more sophisticated weaponry. Israel’s deterrence capabilities will continue to weaken as it’s enemies gain in sophistication. At some point in the future, Israel will no longer be capable of making peace on its own terms. When that tipping point is reached, the peace proposals that Israel has so far rejected will start to look awfully good, yet may no longer be available.

This gambit of Olmert’s was always unwinnable. The only question really was how much damage would Israel’s deterrence capability suffer. After weeks of fighting, it is safe to say that Israel’s deterrence is severely weakened. Israel and Ehud Olmert again have two choices to salvage this mess. They can climb down or they can escalate. It appears now that they have chosen to escalate. The hope apparently is that by causing massive destruction in Lebanon Israel will have shown its might and deterred its enemies:

A senior General Staff officer told Haaretz that for the first time since the fighting began, Israel plans to attack strategic infrastructure targets and symbols of the Lebanese government.

Other than bombing the Beirut airport to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah, Israel has hitherto not targeted Lebanon’s infrastructure, insisting that it is only at war with Hezbollah, not with the Lebanese government or people.

However, the officer said, "we are now in a process of renewed escalation. We will continue hitting everything that moves in Hezbollah – but we will also hit strategic civilian infrastructure."

So, escalation it is. As Ehud Olmert escalates and the neo-cons in Washington cheer him on, the people of Lebanon and Israel continue to suffer. However, no amount of escalation will gain back what Israel has already lost – its deterrence.