Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

It’s time to take another crack at the primary season parlor game. Democrats and independents will be voting in the West Virginia Democratic primary tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is poised to win a landslide victory in the Mountain State. Barack Obama has already more or less conceded the state. The very few polls that have been done show Hillary Clinton with a 30 point plus lead. In the larger Democratic race the results tomorrow will not alter the outcome - Barack Obama already has an insurmountable lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction game, its a good one to play.

Since the polls are few and the state-wide margin is not really in doubt, I wanted to play the game at a county by county level. For the record, my state-wide prediction is that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama 70.9% to 29.1%. I predict a statewide turnout of 404,542 voters with Clinton getting 286,675 and Obama getting 117,863 votes. There are 665,234 registered Democrats and 156,199 registered independent voters in West Virginia. For comparison, the 2004 Democratic primary turnout was 252,839 voters.

West Virginia is a neighboring state and just a short drive from where I live. The Virginia counties to the west and south of me soon begin to resemble those in West Virginia - largely rural, Appalachian counties with breathtaking views. The West Virginia population is mainly White, with county median household incomes varying from $20,000 to just above $50,000 in a county close to the Washington DC metro area. The percentage of people living below the poverty line is as low as 9% in the counties nearest Washington DC to as high as 25% in most of the rural counties. It is beautiful country, but it is also a place where Bill Clinton is very fondly remembered. Barack Obama will receive below 10% of the vote in some West Virginia counties.

Here are my county-by-county predictions for tomorrow, based on demographic data and 2008 primary results in similar Appalachian counties in Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

[Via Democratic Underground]

Hillary Clinton is running a TV ad in West Virginia attacking Barack Obama on the gas tax issue. To make her point, her ad displays a newspaper article titled "Obama attacks Clinton’s gas tax plan". However, the article’s title doesn’t match the article’s contents  - it appears that the title has been superimposed on a different article. Look closely at the ad and you will see that the article flashed on screen is about "Troopergate". The article is about Eliot Spitzer’s "Troopergate" scandal. But who could forget the original "Troopergate" scandal made famous by Bill Clinton.

Does the Hillary Clinton campaign really want to remind people of "Troopergate" and all the other scandals of the Clinton era? We already know that the Clinton campaign is loose with the facts, but this is a bit too much.

The YouTube version of the ad is below:

Brought to you by the former Hillary supporters at Saturday Night Live.

Sadly, Hillary Clinton is digging for dirt. If it continues, we will be handing out Monicas quite liberally. Stop embarrassing yourself Senator.

To: David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

Dear Mr. Plouffe,

I have read with great alarm press reports that the Barack Obama campaign is in discussions to pay off the approximately $25 million campaign debt Hillary Clinton has generated in her increasingly desperate and destructive bid for the Democratic nomination. As one of over 1.5 million loyal contributors to the Obama for America campaign, I want to strongly and unequivocally express to you my opposition to any such plan.

Hillary Clinton has conducted one of the most divisive and racially charged Democratic primary campaigns in recent memory. She has waged this campaign while being bankrolled by a small group of wealthy Democratic power brokers and her personal fortune of over $109 million. As the campaign has gotten more desperate, her wealthy backers have threatened the Speaker of the House, the Democratic party chairman, and others to continue to back Hillary Clinton’s quixotic quest for the nomination. She has launched negative racially charged attacks, attempted to undermine the general election viability of the presumptive Democratic nominee, and disparaged your donors - we the American people - as "latte-drinkers", "eggheads" and "cultists". She has done this while being consistently and soundly defeated by the very people she has disparaged at the final metric of consequence in a democracy - the ballot box.

Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $11 million from her own fortune. She loaned this money to purchase negative ads against Barack Obama. She loaned this money knowing there was no possibility of her winning the nomination. Among the many people her campaign owes money is Mark Penn and his company. Mark Penn (who is owed about $5 million), her former chief strategist, was in large part responsible for her scorched-Earth campaign tactics. She also owes substantial sums to well-meaning small businesses that provided services to her campaign assuming that they would be paid back.

I can see a case being made to pay back money owed by her campaign to American businesses that have been cheated by her campaign. However, I can see no rationale to use our campaign contributions to pay back Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn and others involved with their shameful campaign. The responsibility to settle these debts lies with the Hillary Clinton campaign and her donors - not us. While the American people struggle to hold on to their homes as Washington tells them they have been irresponsible with their finances, it would be a grave insult for the Obama campaign - a campaign built on the aspirations of the American people - to bail out rich millionaires like Hillary Clinton and Mark Penn using the hard earned money of common American citizens.

I must make clear that I did not contribute to your campaign to have my hard earned money be diverted to Hillary Clinton’s or Mark Penn’s personal bank accounts. I contributed to Obama for America because I believe in the candidate and his vision of America. I exercised my first amendment rights, along with over 1.5 million others,  to make that vision a reality.

However, there now appears to be a real risk that my campaign contribution will end up in Hillary Clinton’s coffers. To clarify your position and reassure your supporters, I urge you to publicly offer a statement on your campaign’s position on this issue. Until that time, to avoid any misappropriation, I will withhold further contributions to your campaign. I am confident that the Obama for America campaign will make the right decision and resolve this matter without delay.

Sincerely,

Mash

Lanny Davis, political hack, implodes.

Through the race-stained lens of the Democratic nomination race I am a Brown American. I have many American friends. But today they are apparently White Americans, Black Americans, Brown Americans, Red Americans, and Yellow Americans. I do not have enough buckets to store and segregate my friends of many hues and many colors. Repeatedly and often I mix colors and leave out the qualifier and focus on my American friends.

It is not that I don’t see the colors. I do. I am often reminded - sometimes quite harshly - of my own color and my own place in the fabric of a society that, like other societies, is struggling to unify and coexist.

If you want to cut me up and label me, there are other favorites of the day. I am a Muslim American. I am an Immigrant American. Then there are others which don’t quite fit the stereotype. I am white-collar. I am college educated. I am a suburban elite.

I am a pollster’s dream. I can check off many boxes at one time. I am a cross-sample.

I am also a voter. Once I am in the voting booth, I am reduced once again to an American - no qualifiers. My vote counts - not one half, not three-fifths. I get one whole vote - the same vote as a  White American, Black American, Red American or Yellow American.

When the Democratic nomination battle whittled down to two, the Democrats had made history. For the first time in American history, either a woman or an African American would be the nominee of a major political party. The Democrats had two strong candidates and it felt like either way it would be a giant leap forward for this nation. It was also sobering. It was inevitable that when the Democrats finally fielded their nominee, sexism or racism would rear its ugly head. It would not be easy to push past this barrier in American public life. It would not be easy for either a woman or an African American to rise to the most powerful position in the world. However, if it happened it would be truly historic and a testament to the strength of American democracy.

I have great affection for President Bill Clinton. And I had similar affection for the former First Lady. So I was undecided as to who I would favor. All that changed after South Carolina.

What began as race baiting in South Carolina has reached its sad and tragic depths today. In trolling for votes in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton has chosen the path of division. It started with her surrogates on Tuesday night, and continued with her campaign strategists on Wednesday morning and has now reached its filthy bottom with the candidate herself. Hillary Clinton has declared herself the candidate of the White people - White Americans. The working, hard-working, White Americans. She said:

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"There’s a pattern emerging here," she said.

It is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign. It is shameful.

I chose to support Barack Obama after South Carolina. All my life I have grown up searching for Bobby Kennedy - someone with the vision for a better tomorrow and with the intellect and the commitment to make that tomorrow happen. After South Carolina I found him. Here was a man who saw within our grasp a more unified nation, who had  the strength to lead this nation forward, and who had the strength to battle the inevitable challenges that would be thrown our way. His vision - a tomorrow that I want for my seven-year-old daughter - was that we are not White Americans, Black Americans, Brown Americans, Red Americans, or Yellow Americans; that we are not red states or blue states; that we are the United States of America.

Barack Obama envisioned an ideal for America that is basic and foundational - that inspired a movement and is now poised to change this nation and this world. Beyond the policy positions and the hard work of putting policy into action, Obama offered a unifying vision. I support his vision and his candidacy for the most selfish of reasons. I support it for my daughter and her future.

Barack Obama need not have had a monopoly on this vision. Hillary Clinton had the opportunity to also move this country in that direction. But, sadly, the arc of her candidacy went in the opposite direction. What could have been an inspiring campaign instead succumbed to the baser instincts of race baiting and the politics of division.

I do not want to live in Hillary Clinton’s America. I do not want my daughter to grow up in Hillary Clinton’s America. I want to live in the United States of America. As this country tries to move forward toward racial equality, I do not want a presidential candidate to pit White against Black - one race against another - for a few extra votes. I want a candidate who can inspire this nation to move toward its promise and its ideals, not away from them. Hillary Clinton has embarrassed herself as she desperately tries to hold on to a fantasy. She has become a race baiter on the biggest stage of them all - on the campaign trail for the presidency of the United States. She has embarrassed this country and debased its ideals.

This Brown American - this American - wants her to stop.

The mainstream media has today caught up with the reality of the race. That reality has been constant since Obama mathematically won the race in February.

It took a decisive win in North Carolina and holding his ground in Indiana to bring about this realization. In winning last night Obama triumphed over Hillary Clinton’s last minute pandering on the gas tax. It was ultimately the pander that sunk Hillary Clinton’s stock with the media.

I have argued that the gas tax pander would backfire on Clinton. Today it appears that is exactly what happened.

Here’s New York magazine on the impact of the pander:

There was a certain you-had-to-be-there quality to the homestretch of the Indiana Democratic primary. Through most of last week, national newspapers and cable pundits stayed fixated on the Jeremiah Wright imbroglio. But over the past week, the headlines in Indiana turned to the split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the idea of a gas-tax “holiday.” So did the political ads flooding Hoosier airwaves. And the result was last night’s nasty surprise for Clinton.

It’s easy to see why Clinton was tempted to hop aboard the Pander Express, once John McCain floated the idea of suspending the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents a gallon for the summer. Giving some badly needed relief to truckers, farmers, and vacationers fit right in with the hash-slinger-in-a–Wal Mart–pantsuit image Hillary honed in Ohio, perfected in Pennsylvania, and was deploying all over Indiana. And when Obama derided the idea by saying it would only save consumers “pennies,” he seemed to be handing the Clintons one more opportunity to portray him as an out-of-touch elitist.

But as things turned out, when Hillary called for suspending the gas tax, she threw Obama the kind of rope he desperately had been seeking to pull himself out of the Wright train wreck. Wright screwed Obama as hard as any noncandidate has ever screwed an American presidential contender. And even after counterattacking and distancing himself from his former pastor, Obama was noticeably off his game. But the gas tax became a rare instance where Clinton and Obama directly and diametrically opposed each other on a policy issue, automatically generating headlines and coverage that helped push Wright out of the local news in Indiana.

Further, the gas tax turned the national media against Hillary over the weekend, because the Clinton campaign hadn’t bothered to line up (or just couldn’t find) a single expert to support suspending the tax. That left Clinton herself and surrogates like Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) insulting economists on national television, which looked ridiculous. It also left the media free to report the story without trying to be evenhanded and essentially to tell viewers that suspending the tax is a stupid idea.

Most importantly, the new debate let Obama rediscover his voice. He not only opposed the “holiday” on principle. In a way he hasn’t done on issues such as wearing a lapel flag pin, he also stated his objections loudly, pithily, and in keeping with the themes of his campaign. Liberal bloggers kept writing that Obama needed to argue that suspending the tax wouldn’t save drivers any money. Instead, he hammered away at it as a “gimmick” and a symptom of the Washington politics he says he wants to change.

…

Tragedy or poetic justice, Clinton went one pander too far in Indiana.

Remember. Gas tax. Gas tax. Gas tax.

Hillary Clinton supporters, Click here.

1:14AM: MSNBC and CNN declare Indiana for Hillary Clinton after Lake county came in for Obama 55% to 45%. Obama needed around 59% in Lake county. Hillary Clinton eeked out a win with 50.9% to 40.1% wih a vote difference of 22,439 votes. In North Carolina Obama has won 56.7% to 41.9% with the rest going to presumably others (John Edwards?). Obama won North Carolina by 232,752 votes. It was a thumping tonight. Expect significant calls for her to drop out, if she doesnt bow out on her own. Expect significant super delegate movement to Obama starting tomorrow.

12:37AM: With 56% of Lake county reporting, Obama is winning the county 65% to 35%. The vote difference statewide is 16,609 in Clinton’s favor. The margin is closing fast.

12:33AM: NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her public appearances tomorrow.

12:21AM: Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her appearances tomorrow morning.

12:15AM: Gas tax. Gas tax. Gas tax.

11:48PM: Lake county has started to come in. With 28% of Lake county reporting Clinton’s lead just got cut in half. Obama is winning Lake county now 75% to 25% with the early votes coming from Gary, where Obama is heavily favored. Currently Clinton leads 51% to 49%. The vote difference now is 19,790. This is a nail biter.

11:41PM: Everyone is waiting for Lake county in Indiana to report. In North Carolina Barack Obama won in a landslide. Currently with 98% reporting, Obama leads 56% to 42%. He is leading by more than 220,000 votes - that is a bigger number of votes than Clinton won Pennsylvania by. Barack Obama has erased Clinton’s gains in Pennsylvania and then gained some more tonight. North Carolina was devestating to Clinton. And a close result in Indiana was the game changer. Its game over for Hillary Clinton.

11:35PM: I forgot to mute Lanny Davis when he popped up again on CNN. Lanny said he is "happy" with these results. Then he went completely delusional and almost started to cry. The whole time he had this crazy grin on his face. I am now worried that the man is coming unhinged. Someone please take him home. CNN should not waste airtime with this hack.

11:06PM: According to Tim Russert, there are about 220,000 votes left in Obama strongholds in Indiana. The vote difference is about 39,000 right now. That means Obama would have to win just under 59% of the remaining votes. To put this in perspective, Obama carried Marion county with 67% of the vote. The question is whether he can muster that kind of a margin in Lake county which is yet to report. At this point, it could go either way.

10:55PM: Hillary Clinton is speaking in Indiana. She is declaring victory and says she will keep fighting. She is perhaps giving the worst speech of her long campaign. She is rambling. This was not the moment for this speech. She is going down in a sad and pathetic way, instead of going down with grace. Its quite sad. Bill Clinton, standing behind her, cannot hide his disappointment.

10:32PM: While we wait for Indiana to come in, please donate to Barack Obama and fuel his people-powered campaign. Last night the Obama campaign hit their astounding goal of 1.5 million donors. Help push that number up further. After tonight’s victory he and the American people deserve it.

10:00PM: New Rule: James Carville and Lanny Davis must from now on be shunned. I pledge to put the TV on mute everytime these hacks pop up on screen. In the meantime, Indiana remains a 4 point race with 79% reporting. NBC News still has it "too close to call". The sound you hear is the low spark of super delegates making their way toward Barack Obama.

9:36PM: With 73% reporting in Indiana the margin is now Clinton leading 52% to 48%. We are still waiting for at least two Obama strongholds to report. There are already some surprises in the results. Obama carried St. Joseph county, home of South Bend, and a Catholic stronghold. How the Catholic vote broke out will be interesting to look at. He also unexpectedly won neighboring Elkhart county by 18%.

9:14PM: MSNBC just changed their designation for Indiana from "too early to call" to "too close to call". That is significant. Obama strongholds are yet to come in with now only a 6 point margin between the two candidates with 68% reporting. Clinton may still win Indiana, and most likely will, but the margin is going to be very thin either way.This is shaping up to be a disastrous night for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

9:00PM: More than half of Marion county has come in. One northwestern county is starting to come in. The margin is tightening fast. With 65% of precincts reporting it is now Clinton 53% to Obama 47%. Surprisingly, it is coming down to African American turnout in Indiana. It is going to be close. In North Carolina with 23% precincts reporting Obama leads 61% to 37%.

8:52PM: While we wait for the results to come in, I want to get two things off my chest. Harold Ford Jr is an idiot (if you are watching MSNBC you will know exactly what I mean). And I am with Kos when he says Harold Ickes is a scumbag.

8:39PM: I am a little puzzled by CBS’s call, especially now that none of the other networks have called the race in Indiana.  With Obama strongholds not reporting in yet, it would have to either be a blowout or a premature call. But with 52% reporting Clinton now leads Obama by 54% to 46%. Most rural counties have reported in, so the margin will be closing fast.

8:18PM: CBS has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton, but the other networks have not. Marion county is still coming in and the northwestern counties have not reported yet. But with CBS calling it, its only a matter of time until other networks call it for Clinton.

Vote totals are starting to come in for North Carolina. with 9% of precincts reporting Obama is winning 64% to 34%. The popular vote margin is likely to be huge.

7:48PM: Interestingly, Hillary Clinton’s margins in the rural Indiana counties appear to be less, and in some cases significantly less, than similar counties in Pennsylvania. With 15% reporting, Obama is ahead in Marion county 60% to 40%.

7:44PM: The northwestern Indiana counties have not reported yet. Marion county is just starting to report. If the networks call the Indiana race before those counties come in, then you can be sure that Clinton wins with a wide margin. If they wait until those counties come in, then this race is very close.

7:38PM: Tim Russert on MSNBC is calling Obama’s victory in North Carolina "decisive". Now we wait to see the actual numbers as they come in. With 21% of Indiana precincts reporting Clinton leads 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first. Indianapolis starting to come in now with Obama leading early (with 8% reporting) 57% to 42% in Marion county.

7:30PM: As polls close in North Carolina, MSNBC and CNN call it for Barack Obama.

7:27PM: In the middle of all of this, Barack Obama picks up the endorsement of a North Carolina super delegate.

7:14PM: Polls closed in Indiana at 7pm. MSNBC has it "too early to call". CNN has county by county break downs of results coming in. Currently with 9% of the precincts reporting Clinton leads Obama 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first, so expect that margin to tighten. North Carolina polls close at 7:30PM.

It is once again time for the familiar parlor game. Tomorrow North Carolina and Indiana go to the polls. The race is no longer about delegates. Barack Obama has an insurmountable lead in elected delegates. The race is about whether Hillary Clinton can convince Democratic party insiders to steal the nomination for her. To achieve that she must destroy Barack Obama as a candidate. Tomorrow is her last chance.

So on to the predictions.

Tomorrow is all about demographics. Hillary Clinton has made this election about race, and tomorrow race will play a heavy factor.

In North Carolina Barack Obama will likely win the state. His margin depends on the percentage of African American voters. I am expecting about 38% African American turnout tomorrow. With that kind of African American turnout Obama is likely to win with a minimum of 55.2% to 44.8% or more likely 57.5% to 42.5%. Pollster.com is showing the race at Obama 49.9% to Clinton 42.2%. That translates into a 54.2% to 45.8% Obama victory in North Carolina. Looking at the internals for these polls my guess is that they are under representing the African American vote. I am going to go with the high end of my numbers and predict that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton in  North Carolina  57.5% to 42.5% - a margin of 15 points.

Indiana is a bit more complicated. There is a law in Indiana that makes automated polling illegal. This may be causing polls to be all over the map, with Zogby the outlier giving Obama a slim lead. Pollster.com is showing the race at Clinton 49.7% to Obama 43.9%. That translates into a 53.1% to 46.9% Clinton victory in Indiana. African American turnout will likely be about 12% in Indiana. The real question is what percentage of the White vote Barack Obama can garner. Most polls have him taking about 40% of the White vote and a lesser percentage of the Black vote than he is actually likely to get. If Barack Obama can take close to 45% of the White vote in Indiana he can eek out a win.

There is late momentum in Obama’s favor in Indiana. A lot will depend on turnout and how much of a memory Reverend Wright is. I suspect the gas tax has supplanted Wright as the issue that will sway late deciders. The gas tax has gotten bad press in local Indiana papers and may have ended up dove-tailing into an issue of Clinton’s truthfulness. Still pandering works in elections, but those who may be bought with this gimick- White blue collar voters - were likely already in Clinton’s camp. National polling shows that the gas tax issue plays against Clinton among independents, so I am betting that there will be late movement away from her. So, since I am in an adventurous mood I will buck the trend and predict Indiana for Obama by a hair. I predict that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton in Indiana by 50.4% to 49.6%. And tomorrow night I will once again eat my shoe

Regardless of the outcome in Indiana, tomorrow is likely not going to be the "game changer" Hilary Clinton wants and needs. If Clinton wins Indiana she will stay in the race until someone drags her off the campaign. If she loses Indiana she simply cannot convince her donors to allow her to continue.