Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

I have been getting a lot of worried emails from Obama supporters about Pennsylvania. So, I figure it is worth posting about what might be happening in Pennsylvania and what we might expect on election day.

The McCain campaign has said that they are actively going after Pennsylvania, and news organizations are reporting that the polls are tightening. This has led to a lot of nail biting on the Democratic side.

So, first let’s look at the polling numbers.

A look at the composite of all polls this year at Pollster.com shows that John McCain has never polled above 45% in Pennsylvania vis a vis Barack Obama. Even when McCain got the dead cat bounce after the Sarah Palin announcement he did not cross 45% in Pennsylvania. Since Obama locked up the Democratic nomination, John McCain has never led in the polls in Pennsylvania.

A closer look at the polling composite from September and October (with sensitive smoothing) shows that the race was within a few points, with Obama leading, until the Wall Street crisis hit in mid September. In the aftermath of the crisis and the debates, Barack Obama has pulled away from John McCain and has been polling above 50% in Pennsylvania. At the same time, John McCain’s support dropped to below 40% from his high of around 45%. The economic crisis crystallized voter preferences. While Obama gained support from those previously undecided, McCain lost some of his existing support that he already had as voters apparently lost confidence in him due to his erratic behavior during the crisis.

As John McCain has begun to aggressively campaign in Pennsylvania, it appears some of his base has begun to come back to him. His poll numbers are creeping back up toward 45%. However, as McCain has gained support, Obama has not lost any of the support he gained in mid-September. Obama remains above 50%, even as some of those who had abandoned John McCain are now beginning to come back to him. This suggests that the supporters Obama has gained, due to his handling of the economic crisis and his debate performances, seem to not be susceptible to McCain’s message. So, while McCain’s base comes home and he moves back toward his high water mark of 45%, it does not appear he is gaining voters from Obama. Unless something dramatic happens in the next three days, Obama is in a very strong position to carry Pennsylvania next Tuesday, even if McCain somehow manages to break through his upper bound of 45%.

So, stop the nail biting.

As to why McCain decided to go after Pennsylvania, what choice did he have? He is trailing badly in the Southwest and is likely losing Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. He cannot win without carrying Pennsylvania, while holding Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana (not to mention North Dakota, Montana, Georgia and Arizona). A look at the electoral map makes clear that he had no choice but to go after Pennsylvania. McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit is a sign of weakness, not strength.

Now, you can make the argument that the polls are inaccurate. Perhaps. But, the polls are the best evidence we have right now of the state of the race. I am more comfortable judging the race based on the polls than on some nebulous "gut feeling". I refuse to go into a fetal position because of a "gut feeling" or because of McCain campaign spin. And you shouldn’t either.

This is no time to become complacent, but it is also not a time to succumb to fear on the cusp of success. Until the polls close next Tuesday, leave the worry aside, work hard to get the vote out and make sure you vote.

Sarah Palin on the First Amendment:

"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations," Palin told host Chris Plante, "then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media."

Is it too much to ask that a person running for a Constitutional office know something about the Constitution?

Sarah Palin, meet the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Note to Sarah: The First Amendment protects the citizen and the press from the government, not the other way around. Also, it does not protect you from criticism when you say stupid things. Further, the kind of protection you appear to be seeking, that is, protection of a government official from criticism by the press is pretty much the norm in fascist regimes.

Of course, the freedom of the press is kind of an alien concept to Sarah Palin. At the beginning of October she said this about the press:

"As we send our young men and women overseas in a war zone to fight for democracy and freedoms, including freedom of the press, we’ve really got to have a mutually beneficial relationship here with those fighting the freedom of the press, and then the press, though not taking advantage and exploiting a situation, perhaps they would want to capture and abuse the privilege. We just want truth, we want fairness, we want balance."

Note to Sarah: Freedom of the press is not a "privilege", it is a right guaranteed under the First Amendment in the Bill of Rights.

Sarah Palin’s views on the First Amendment and the freedom of the press are, to say the least, troubling - especially so because she is running to become the vice president of the United States.

Behold John McCain’s Halloween nightmare.

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger has endorsed John McCain. McCain cites Eagleburger when defending against Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama and Powell’s critique of Sarah Palin. But yesterday on NPR,  Eagleburger went off the reservation and told some truth about Sarah Palin (listen here):

Asked Thursday on National Public Radio if he thought Palin would be ready to take over in a crisis, Eagleburger said, "Of course not."

"I don’t think at the moment she is prepared to take over the brains of the presidency. I can name for you any number of other vice presidents who were not particularly up to it, either," Eagleburger said.

"So the question I think is, can she learn and would she be tough enough under the circumstances if she were asked to become president? Heaven forbid that that ever takes place," he said. "Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be adequate. I can’t say that she would be a genius in the job, but I think she would be enough to get us through a four-year — well, I hope not. … Get us through whatever period of time was necessary, and I devoutly hope that it would never be tested."

Today, Eagleburger went on Fox News to apologize for his momentary lapse into honesty. Clearly, the McCain campaign took him out to the woodshed. Watch this sad spectacle of a guy who was once America’s top diplomat grovel:

Eagleburger’s performance today was on par with another such retraction:

This pathetic specimen of a human being is a McCain campaign spokesman. Watch him practice neo-McCarthyism. As they come to grips with their diminishing prospects in this election, the McCain campaign is going down ugly.

Six days until the election, and then this happens!

You know your presidential campaign is in serious trouble when your vice presidential pick is planning her 2012 run already. I have to hand it to the McCain campaign, they sure are a team of mavericks.

Run, Sarah, Run!

This is Barack Obama’s 30 minute prime time event that aired tonight at 8pm. There was a live portion from his rally in Florida at the end that is not included in the above video.

Let’s face it. John McCain is no longer running against Barack Obama in this race. He is running against Sarah Palin, and vice versa. According to the McCain campaign, Palin has "gone rogue", and become a "diva". Now a top McCain advisor is calling Palin a "whack job". That, seems to me, is a sign of a campaign in turmoil.  Sarah Palin wants to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, but the baton handoff from McCain to Palin is apparently not going smoothly.

With one week to go, the trajectory of the race appears to be set. Barring an extraordinary external event, only one thing could alter the arc of the race at this point: if Obama supporters fail to go to the polls on November 4th.

Barack Obama has begun his closing argument, and to help him, tomorrow he is being joined by the Big Dog. Bill Clinton, the master of timing, will appear together for the first time with Barack Obama tomorrow at a rally in Florida. That event, and Obama’s 30 minute prime-time television program, should dominate the news cycle all of tomorrow.

So, its prediction time. I have my shoe ready in case I have to eat it on election night. Here’s how I think election day will play out:

The battleground has shifted decisively in Barack Obama’s favor. A number of states that were contested just a few weeks ago are now firmly in Obama’s column. Others, perennial Republican states, are now genuine toss-ups. This election is being played out in red states. This has forced McCain to try to win a big blue state. Hence, Pennsylvania. But, while McCain throws resources into Pennsylvania Obama is about to pick his pocket in Ohio and Florida. In the end, McCain will probably lose all three - a stunning development for a Republican presidential candidate.

And, of course, there is Virginia. Obama now has a solid lead here, and I see no indication that McCain can close the gap. Virginia will be the bell weather on election day. If Virginia is called for Obama early next Tuesday night, the election is over and we will be on landslide watch.

I predict a national popular vote margin of 53.2% to 46.8% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 375 to 163 for Barack Obama.

I predict John McCain will win Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and South Carolina.

I predict Barack Obama will win Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC. Obama will also win the battleground states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Indiana looks very good for Obama. My sense is there is enough enthusiasm on the ground there to pull out a narrow win for Obama.

I am tempted to put Georgia in Obama’s column, but I think I will hold off. All in all, this is headed toward a landslide.

So, what are your predictions?

Barack Obama is within striking distance of winning deep red Georgia next Tuesday. The latest poll out of Georgia shows a statistical tie. If McCain loses Georgia he will lose it as part of a larger national Barack Obama landslide.

Down ballot the Georgia Senate race is heating up. Democrat Jim Martin is in a dead heat with Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss won his senate seat in 2002 by beating Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Senator Max Cleland in one of the sleaziest campaigns in recent times. Chambliss questioned Cleland’s patriotism and played the fear card to the hilt. Here’s a Chambliss ad from 2002:

Georgia now has a chance to retire Saxby Chambliss and his brand of politics. Next Tuesday night, this is the Senate race (except for the expected Mark Warner rout in Virginia) I will be paying the most attention to. And so will Max Cleland.