There are some dramatic new polls out today that show strong momentum for Barack Obama. With the convention bounces a distant memory, with Sarah Palin defined as a serial liar, and with the economy taking center stage, the race is settling down to its fundamentals: the economy. The voters are being asked to decide what is more risky: keeping the bums in office, or throwing the bums out.
A new CNN/Time poll in battleground states shows some surprising results:
- Florida is tied at 48%
- Obama is within 1 point of McCain in North Carolina
- Obama is ahead in Ohio 49% to 47%
To win in November, Obama does not need Florida, North Carolina or Ohio. If Obama wins in North Carolina, a deep red state, he will probably be looking at an electoral landslide win.
Stunningly, Obama is ahead in Indiana in the latest Star/WTHR poll. Obama leads McCain 47% to 44% on the strength of voter enthusiasm in the Indianapolis area. It goes without saying that Democrats do not win in Indiana, and it is likely that Obama will lose here in November. But, still, the fact that Indiana is competitive is nothing short of stunning.
The three latest polls in Virginia show Obama ahead or tied with McCain in this traditionally red state that has become a real battleground in 2008. Obama does not need Virginia to win in November, but winning Virginia will ensure victory for him. All trends in Virginia indicate that Obama is poised to win here.
Obama’s path to victory lies in the west – in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. If he wins two out these three states, he can win the presidency even if he loses Ohio and Florida. Obama is ahead by a sizeable margin in New Mexico, he is even with McCain in Colorado, and he is within a few points in Nevada. If Obama wins New Mexico and Colorado, he wins the presidency. Again, if Obama wins Virginia, he can afford to lose all three western states and still win the election.
To underscore the state polling, tonight’s New York Times/CBS poll shows Obama ahead nationally 48% to 43%. He has erased the so-called "Palin bounce". The American Idol phase of this election cycle is over.
With the economy front and center, this election is now Barack Obama’s to lose. You can be sure that the Republicans will throw out every smear tactic known to man between now and election day. If Obama can navigate the smears and keep control of the narrative he can win this election.
Now, I really hope everyone is out of the fetal position and ready to bring this one home.
As a minority living in Northern Virginia, what do you have to say about the following news?
“GOP Rally Reaches Out To Minoritiesâ€
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/16/AR2008091603151.html?hpid=topnews
What is Dem base planning (if any) to counter that?
Jasper, the GOP outreach is a a joke. George “Macaca” Allen is their front man on this 🙂
The Obama campaign is all over Northern Virginia. Apart from the tons of groups and meetups, there is a lot of direct outreach. Northern Virginia is Obama country. Just to give you a sample of the level of activity and outreach, this arrived in my email today:
That is comforting.
But the Pollster map freaked me out a bit this morning.
Please tell me what’s going on. Why did some of the blue states turn yellow?
OBAMA = BETRAYAL
Obama supporters are foolish to think that he will never betray them.
Obama was a close friend of Pastor Wright for TWENTY YEARS.
Obama threw Wright under the bus for personal ambition.
McCain would not betray his country even after 5 years of torture.
You can put lipstick on a traitor, but he’s still a traitor.