2017 Virginia Election Live Blog – Governor (?) Northam Edition

8:14PM CNN projects Ralph Northam will be the next governor of Virginia! This was a thumping of Trump and Trumpism. Trump may not want to come back from Asia.

7:50PM At this point, the only question left is what will Northam’s margin of victory be.

7:46PM Fairfax County is starting to come in. Northam has taken the lead. I expect it to stay that way.

7:40PM All but one precinct in Loudoun County are in. Northam is crushing Gillespie 59.50% to 39.37%. I’ll go out on a limb here and say this is going to be Northam’s night.

7:29PM: Take this with a grain of salt. Northam is outperforming McAuliffe’s 2013 results in precinct results coming out of Prince William County. Gillespie needs to hold his own here or win. Let’s see how the rest of the precincts come in. Early good sign for Northam.

7:26PM: For those that don’t follow Virginia elections, Northern Virginia will usually come in late. That’s where Northam’s votes are.

7:23PM: Votes starting to trickle in. Mostly red counties and absentee votes. Gillespie 50.8%-Northam 48.1%

7:09PM: Exit polls. Northam leads women by 19%. Gillespie leads men by 8%. Northam leads among 18-29 and 30-44 age groups by 34% and 21% respectively. Gillespie leads much more modestly among those older than 45.

The bottom line is the Republicans are losing voters in Virginia every year. Virginia is getting bluer every year.

7:00PM Polls have closed in Virginia. Too early to call from the Nets. Not surprising. Let’s count the votes!

6:46PM Heavy turnout in Arlington County. Expected to easily exceed 2013 turnout, despite heavy rain.

6:24PM Over 180,000 absentee votes cast. 117,000 of those were in-person absentee votes. That’s a lot!

6:18PM Fairfax County turnout much higher than 2013 gubernatorial election. By 6pm turnout already exceeded 2013. Projected turnout is about 60%.

6:00PM Ok, let’s fire this blog up…

Polls close at 7pm. Here are the counties to keep an eye on for Northam to have a successful night:

  • Fairfax County, the big enchilada. Northam needs to do better than 60% here.
  • Arlington County. Northam needs to do better than 70% here. 75% would be ideal.
  • Alexandria City. Northam needs to do better than 70% here. 75% would be ideal.
  • Loudoun County. Bellweather. If Northam wins this county he will likely carry the state.
  • Richmond City. Northam needs to do better than 70% here.
  • Henrico County. Northam needs to eeke out a win here.
  • Virginia Beach. If Northam eekes out a win here, its game over for Gillespie.


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