11PM November 4, 2008 NBC News projects that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.
——
After a long two years, we are about to see the verdict of the American people.
I voted this morning at my local polling station in Loudoun County. The line was long but the voters were determined. If Barack Obama takes Virginia, Loudoun County will have much to do with it.
I took my daughter with me. I wanted to share with her what I believe will be the most consequential vote I will ever cast in my lifetime.
In the afternoon, after an urgent call for umbrellas went out from the Obama campaign, I dropped one off at the Obama office near my place of work. The Obama office was buzzing with volunteers, and it seemed like every street corner in Arlington had a Obama volunteer on their way to get out the vote. Northern Virginia is Obama country – perhaps enough so to flip Virginia to the Democrats for the first time since 1964.
There is a palpable excitement here in Northern Virginia. In 30 minutes, the polls close in Virginia. We will soon know if Virginia will propel Barack Obama to the White House.
Live blogging below:
7:03pm No surprises. Kentucky called for McCain. Vermont called for Obama. Virginia too early to call at poll closing.
7:05pm NBC news is projecting Mark Warner is the new Senator from the state of Virginia 🙂 Indiana is too close to call – a very bad sign for McCain (Bush won this state by 20 points in 2004). Still waiting for Virginia returns.
7:16pm Early county by county returns from Indiana are looking very good for Barack Obama. Obama is performing well in surprising parts of the state. A long way to go – we will see.
7:26pm In early numbers from deep red counties in Virginia, Obama is doing as well as Jim Webb did in 2006.
7:30pm Polls close. North Carolina is too close to call – a very good sign for Barack Obama. Ohio is too early to call.
7:36pm MSNBC lets slip that Obama is ahead in Ohio even though it is too early to call.
7:45pm Obama doing much better than Webb in Culpeper. This is a sign of how much the demographic push outward from Northern Virginia has helped Democrats. This bodes well for Northern Virginia counties which have not reported in yet.
7:54pm Virginia numbers coming in very slowly. No Northern Virginia counties have begun reporting. In early numbers, Obama is leading in Henrico County. I do not believe McCain can win Virginia without winning in Henrico. McCain is also barely winning Chesterfield County with nearly 50% reporting. McCain needs a much bigger margin in Chesterfield if he is to carry Virginia.
8:00pm Pennsylvania called for Obama as soon as polls close! See, you guys were sweating for no reason 🙂 Time to breathe a huge collective sigh of relief!
8:15pm With nearly all of Chesterfield and Culpeper reporting, Obama has outperformed Jim Webb in these critical red counties for McCain. Now it is all up to Northern Virginia and the Tidewater cities to bring it home for Obama. So far, I like what I see out of Virginia.
8:25pm Arlington County starting to report. 2% of precincts in so far. Nothing yet from Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William in Northern Virginia.
8:29pm Correction, Fairfax is reporting, not Arlington. I must be tired 🙂 So far, Fairfax, with only 2% reporting, is 58% to 41% Obama.
8:33pm Big news out of North Carolina. Kay Hagan is the projected winner over Liddy Dole in the NC senate race. I guess Dole’s disgusting attack ad didn’t quite work out for her.
8:37pm MSNBC changes Virginia from "too early to call" to "too close to call".
8:39pm Northern Virginia starting to come in. Obama up in Loudoun and Prince William in early numbers. Unsurprisingly up strong in Arlington and Fairfax.
8:57pm Obama is closing fast. Currently its 50% McCain and 48% Obama with a small portion of Northern Virginia beginning to report. Obama is cleaning up big in Richmond city. Amazingly, Obama is leading strongly in Henrico County.
8:59pm New Mexico and Colorado coming up in a minute. Bite your nails! 🙂
9:00pm This one is for my boss. Wisconsin is projected for Obama.
9:04pm Arizona is too close to call! That can’t be. New Mexico and Colorado too early to call.
9:14pm Chuck Todd says Virginia is closer than they expected. I see Obama leading Loudoun and Prince William. Fairfax is coming in at 57%, but with only 15% reporting. Obama is outperforming how Webb did in Tidewater cities. It will be tight but Obama is narrowing the gap as the returns come in. Obama is now only behind 25,000 votes. I really like his chances.
9:25pm This election is over. Ohio goes to Obama. Now, Virginia, don’t embarrass me 🙂
9:29pm The vote difference between McCain and Obama is now only about 5000 votes, with Obama gaining fast. There are atleast 37,000 more votes for Obama in Fairfax county. I like our chances in Virginia. Obama is cleaning up in key Tidewater cities. He is outperforming Webb.
9:33pm Think about this for a second. Obama is only 5,000 votes away from flipping Virginia with only 26% of Fairfax County reporting. Now, that is amazing.
9:34pm Landslide watch: New Mexico called for Barack Obama, the next president of the United States. This is shaping up to be a remarkable evening for America and the world.
9:41pm Rats! Mitch McConnell will hold on to his senate seat in Kentucky. Let’s hope we see Chambliss gone in Georgia.
9:44pm Obama is less than 3000 votes behind in Virginia with still only 26% of Fairfax county reporting. I am so proud of Loudoun County – Obama is starting to pull away. Webb turned Loudoun blue, and Obama is turning it bluer.
9:49pm I just went and hugged my daughter good night and told her that Barack Obama will be our next President. Her response was "Woohoo!".
10:02pm With polls closing, Iowa has just been called for Obama. He is well on his way to making it official.
10:05pm Nevada too early to call, with Obama leading. And, Fairfax County only reporting 35% and Obama takes the lead in Virginia. With Obama’s leads in Loudoun and Prince William, his solid performance in Virginia Beach, and a ton of Obama votes still to come from Fairfax, Virginia is blue and I am loving it.
10:21pm There are atleast 32,000 more Obama votes to come out of Fairfax County in Virginia. I don’t see anything else in the state that gets McCain to close that gap. North Carolina and Florida look very good for Obama. In Indiana, I think Obama has just enough votes to close the gap – but it will be a nail biter either way.
10:30pm The big story in Virginia are the numbers coming out of Loudoun County, Prince William County and Henrico County (around Richmond). The demographics in Virginia look very good for Democrats. The registration numbers in Northern Virginia this cycle were staggering. The top 3 counties in Virginia for registration growth were from Northern Virginia – Loudoun and Prince William among them. Having lived here off and on for 3 decades, I have seen the growth push outward from the Washington Beltway. What we here see on the ground in the outer counties is backed up by the registration numbers and the voting patterns.
10:57pm Robbie and Rumi point out in the comments that Fox News has called Virginia for Obama. What took them so long. But, we already knew this at this blog 🙂
11:00pm I do not really know what to write at this moment. America did good tonight. Change has come.
11:10pm NBC News calls Virginia for Barack Obama. Virginia, yes we can!
11:16pm NBC News projects Colorado for Barack Obama.
11:18pm NBC News projects Florida for Barack Obama.
11:24pm John McCain is delivering his concession speech. He is trying hard to put out the fires of hatred that his campaign and his running mate have deliberately stoked. It pains me that someone like John McCain took his campaign to such nasty depths.
11:27pm Indiana has been called for Barack Obama by NBC News.
11:30pm Oops. I must be tired. Indiana has not yet been called.
12:00am President-elect Barack Obama is on stage now at Grant Park in Chicago. What a truly amazing moment.
12:18am Yes We Can.
12:35pm Missouri has narrowed. There may just be enough left in the cities to pull Obama into a win by a hair. Indiana and North Carolina look very good for Obama also. Montana will probably not happen for Obama.
2:10am NBC News calls Indiana for Barack Obama. Missouri is now within 554 votes. Obama has plenty of votes in Jackson County to surpass John McCain by about 1500 votes or so. It looks now like Missouri will go to Obama in a squeaker (with probably a recount).
2:19am Two other counties outstanding in Missouri that I missed. It will be even tighter it seems.
2:22am North Carolina shows 100% reporting with Obama leading by 12,000 votes. The networks have not called it yet. Its not clear to me why no call has been made.
2:35am Jackson County has come in and Obama is 398 votes short. Two counties remain. Missouri is insanely close.
8:20am North Carolina is done and in Obama’s column, but still waiting for provisional ballots. McCain holds a slim lead in Missouri after all counties finished their reporting, but provisional ballot still need to be counted. Missouri may still flip to Obama with a margin this thin. We may still see 375 electoral votes for Obama, but 364 at the least
Hi there everyone!
Thank you Mash for the commentary! Did you have any problems today? Greg went this morning at 6am and waited in line for an hour and I went about 2pm and didn’t wait at all. Benefit of middle of the day voting! Kind of felt guilty though! Felt as though I should have waited in line a bit-kind of like paying my dues! Oh well, lucky me!
Did any of you other Mash fans have to wait?
Will check in periodically until the kids go to bed, then we will turn on CNN.
Cheers! Vick
Vickie, I went around 9pm and waited a little over an hour. Took Surah because I wanted her to be there when America made history.
How about them PA!? McCain wasted all those money and times. Ha Haa Ha
And kudos to NC as well. Hagan is way ahead of Dole so far. And Obama is of McCain.
Happy with VA? …umm… not so much. Yes Warner is the projected winner but Obama is double digits behind, based on 34% precincts reporting (RE: CNN).
Obama is outperforming Jim Webb in the deep red counties that have reported. Almost nothing has reported from Northern VA or any Tidewater cities – Obama strongholds.
And McCain in serious trouble in Henrico County – not a good sign for McCain.
I like where we are in VA returns so far – I like it a LOT.
We cant call Virginia without seeing Northern Virginia returns. The magic number is a combined 60% from Northern Virginia counties.
have you washed one of your shoes and marinated it?
Just teasing… 😉
Shoes ready. Although I feel vindicated in Pennsylvania, and Indiana looks great so far. So does Virginia. Its all up to Northern Virginia now. The rest of the state has done its job.
I’m not watching any of it (Kel is pretty chilled apparently, he’s so confident..but he knows..I want it to be over..knock me out already and let me wake up)
So hey, good for you to take Surah..they had ‘faux elections’ in Dirk’s class unfortunately, since he’s been battleing a sinus infection for the last couple of weeks, he’s missed a lot of it. Still, he has his Obama shirt and I have two and Rebecca has one, courtesy of James having to go on business to Chicago and Washington..now he’s in Philadelphia..
did you see Boston Legal last night? They were in top form, wow, the political jokes and indirect commentary was priceless! I posted the ‘paintball fight’.it is really the funniest..
anyhow.. you have a stronger constitution than I do for this so I’ll expect the full rundown tomorrow!
hugs to Surah,
Ingrid
Okay, if you’re happy with the results so far, I’ll stop flipping out, but I’m anxious.
Obama will win election even without VA.
But we all want VA to win soooo badly – it’s almost unbearable.
Well, it’s embarassing that NC is looking like it’ll flip, and we won’t…. Though the NoVa counties (now that I’ve found them) are looking very strong for Obama.
VA board of elections number are now 50% McCain, Obama 48% and closing fast with tiny sections of Northern VA reporting. Hold on to your hats – and shoes! 🙂
Ohio has done superbly.
Kinda on the boat with PA – burnt by bad economy.
Where are you watching returns? I no longer trust CNN — I think they benefit from reporting closer or contraversial returns to keep eyes on the screens for advertising dollars, honestly. Currently watching on Yahoo, but would love a better source — any suggestions?
Rivkeleh, the Virginia board of elections has the latest numbers but the site is slow. Click here.
MSNBC has a good map. Click here.
NY and MI to Obama – not surprisingly.
AZ is too close – how embarrassing is that for McCain? Huh!
FL — nearly 50% in, and Obama up by 4 points. Whoo Hooo
VA — Warner better be a bonus than a consolation prize.
Hi everyone!
Some of these are nailbiters indeed! I will be watching until late I am afraid. I don’t think you will need that Marinade however Mash!!!! I am the only yard on the street with an Obama sign-lost in a sea of the other signs! Who will be laughing tomorrow? HA HA
Vic
Vickie, I lived this scenario in 2006 with Webb. Those damn Northern Virginia counties need to report early. I think they just like to make people sweat 🙂
But, we are looking at something incredible tonight with Ohio being called for Obama. We are on landslide watch.
Come on VA – flip already, Damn it!
Ohio has done it. NC is about to. And FL is following.
It is a great surprise that only Fox news is calling Ohio for Obama. No other network is calling it yet. Fox news also called New Mmexico for Obama. So two red states are on blue column so far. It’s been already 33 minutes since I heard Fox news calling Ohio and NM for Obama. It is quite unclear why no other network are calling it yet.
Ah CNN just called it. A good 40 minutes later. But New mexico is not called yet.
Rumi, MSNBC has called both New Mexico and Ohio for Obama. Dont know about CNN – not following them.
He’s at 200 now – need only 70 more.
CA alone will add 55.
73% in for VA. It’s 50-50 split so far…it can tip any moment now. I think Mash will be right after all. {{HUGs}} 😀
jasper, I like Obama’s odds in Virginia. The county by county numbers are great. If it gets close I’ll drill down to precincts, but I think with 74% of the vote still to report from Fairfax County things look pretty good for Obama.
As I look at the numbers and the percentages from my hick state I am now getting a bit nervous! As Rachel Maddow (if I was lesbian…) says “TALK ME DOWN!!” Mash or anyone else care to take a swing?
Surah is so cute! Maybe she will be President someday!
CNN VA 50-50 now:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPVA
FINALLY!!! I have chewed off half of my finger nails already…
81% counted in VA. The scale just tipped.
51 Obama
49 McCain
Paraphrasing Crosby Stills Nash & Young and singing wildly,
“This November I hear the drummin’
McCain dead in Ohio.”
jasper, Obama’s lead will widen. I predicted 52% to 48% and I think he will hit that number.
Vickie, follow my updates in the post. Obama has a lot of votes still coming for him. This was never much in doubt, I think. Its just that NOVA is coming in late.
Kaiser, welcome 🙂 Its a wonderful November.
Iowa has given him 7 more.
Other sure shots:
HI – 4 EV
CO – 9 EV
WA – 10 EV
YES. It is President Obama from now on.
Ain’t life sweet?
I have this urge to get out on the street and SCREAM!! 🙂
Don’t forget CA and it’s 55 votes. We’re going Obama at the top of the hour. 🙂
This ditty is for the GOP…
Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, Goodbye!
Robbie, you guys need to put Obama officially over the top. It will be fitting, with Mitt talking about the sun rising in the West and all 🙂
Vickie (#24), I tell my friends if anybody can make walk on the other side, it’s Rachel M.
Robster (#31), yes we know. The election is decided. But can’t quit obsessing over VA. Suddenly it’s very personal. 89% votes are in – yet the spread is only 1 point – that’s only what…a couple of thousands people?
Obama is ahead in Montana.
Way ahead in CO.
Neck ‘n neck (50-50 split) in FL, IN, NC, MO and VA.
Serious toss up!!
jasper, I think there are too many votes left in VA for McCain to catch up. I think the nets will call VA shortly, once they see a little more from Fairfax.
Obama has over 72,000 votes from Mecklenburg County to go. NC should be going Obama.
And I think FL may be a done deal for Obama, though I havent worked all the county numbers there. I’ve been real focused on VA.
Indiana is a nail biter though 🙂
Fox News has just called Virginia for Obama.
It is sealed. Obama is the #44.
Fox News has called VA for Obama.
Trust me, there’s something wonderful about watching Fox News give the eulogy for the GOP tonight.
I listened to Savage Nation earlier this afternoon and some wingnut said he’s going back home if Obama wins…SYRIA!
GObama!
Rumi, if these nets read my blog they would have called Virginia hours ago 🙂
No one trusts my math 🙁
Indiana should go blue. Lake County is a Chicago suburb and will go heavy for Obama. The only reason they’re not calling it yet is because there’s probably a TON of ballots to count. 🙂
Indiana looking good. North Carolina looking good. I am thinking St. Louis puts Missouri over the top.
I went out on a limb on Missouri and Indiana in my prediction…was counting on the GOTV.
BRADLEY WHO????
Well done, Mash! You got it spot on when you said there would be no Bradley effect.
Kaiser, I am exhausted and overwhelmed. The world will never be the same.
Ultimately, I am numbers guy. And the numbers were there for Obama. It was hard to believe at times because this was so improbable in our lifetimes that it was hard to accept the possibility of it. But it has happened – and this world is better for it.
I have become a sentimental old fool. I am actually crying.
shh, dont tell anyone. So am I. I cried when I hugged my daughter earlier tonight, and now the emotions have come back.
WOW
Just WOW.
I am overcome, overwhelmed and just amazed to look at Virginia and see blue, look at Pennsylvania and see blue. WOW. By so little votes too. Makes me think that the effort that I did give and my vote and the others that maybe I helped.
Now I am watching John McCain give his concessions speech and looking and talking and acting like the John McCain that I used to like and used to respect as a person. I just disagreed sooo much with his latest campaign that I couldn’t support him. Sarah Palin can now go home and take care of her state and her children. I feel sort of bad for him, but that is just my empathetic persona coming out! Didn’t feel sorry for Palin though. I won’t miss seeing Cindy McCain either. I have a friend who knows her personal secretary and she was really looking forward to working for a first lady! Oh Well.
Now I am relieved that it is over, but much more has just begun. An African American is President. I will pray for him and his family every night because a bit of me is scared for him and his safety.
I am going to bed!!! Love to you all!!!
Vickie
Vicky, your vote made it happen. Make no mistake about it. Obama won Virginia because we in Northern Virginia came out for him, and volunteered for him. When you housed volunteers you helped turn votes.
This was won on the ground. And you made it happen.
Thank you Northern Virginians. 🙂
In and NC and MT will be called for Obama any moment now.
Mash, your numbers were awefully close, within 2%. No one should ever doubt your numbers.
jasper, final numbers still not in. Obama will widen the popular vote margin. Missouri is going down to the wire 🙂
Wow. That was an ass kicking.
I think we’re going to call this the Obama effect. He earned support in places I never expected, and if he’s as good a president as I think he’ll be, he’s going to change the way Americans look at race relations.
I’ve always been proud of my country, but I’ve never been as proud of it as I am tonight.
Robbie, this was an electoral mandate. He got across the board support. The mandate will help him govern.
Still looking at Missouri. Missouri is going to be a squeaker. I am crunching the numbers, but I think there may be enough in what hasnt come in yet to make up the 12,000 vote gap.