The Panderer Versus The Coffee Machine

All you latte-drinking Obama supporters keeping score at home should take note that the Panderer-in-Chief was fixing herself a cappuccino while on her fake gas station visit.

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Barack Obama On Reverend Jeremiah Wright

Barack Obama spoke out today in North Carolina.

 

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A Defining Moment For Barack Obama

Over the weekend and this morning Barack Obama’s former pastor Reverend Jeremiah Wright burst back onto the national scene – this time by his own choice and in full context. In doing so he has created the most significant challenge to Barack Obama’s quest for the presidency. Jeremiah Wright’s reemergence may be fatal to Barack Obama’s candidacy.

Barack Obama, in spite of the Wright controversy, will become the Democratic nominee for president. The challenge to Obama’s candidacy is not fatal for him in the primaries. Hillary Clinton has lost, in spite of the tortured logic of her campaign and her supporters. The damage Wright causes Obama is in the general election.

Speaking this morning at the National Press Club Jeremiah Wright went beyond his measured interview with Bill Moyers over the weekend. Reverend Wright who in the PBS interview made the case for reconciliation today became combative during the question and answer session. When asked why he was speaking out now, he said:

On November the 5th and on January 21st, I’ll still be a pastor. As I said, this is not an attack on Jeremiah Wright. It has nothing to do with Senator Obama. It is an attack on the black church launched by people who know nothing about the African-American religious tradition.

And why am I speaking out now? In our community, we have something called playing the dozens. If you think I’m going to let you talk about my mama and her religious tradition, and my daddy and his religious tradition, and my grandma, you’ve got another thing coming.

Then Reverend Wright explained away Barack Obama’s landmark Philadelphia speech as what politicians do:

What I mean is what several of my white friends and several of my white, Jewish friends have written me and said to me. They’ve said, "You’re a Christian. You understand forgiveness. We both know that, if Senator Obama did not say what he said, he would never get elected."

Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls, Huffington, whoever’s doing the polls. Preachers say what they say because they’re pastors. They have a different person to whom they’re accountable.

As I said, whether he gets elected or not, I’m still going to have to be answerable to God November 5th and January 21st. That’s what I mean. I do what pastors do. He does what politicians do.

I am not running for office. I am hoping to be vice president.

However, what Reverend Wright doesn’t seem to realize is that he was not speaking as a pastor this morning – he had entered the realm of politics. By bringing this controversy firmly into the political mainstream he has taken what was a distraction and made it a central issue in this campaign. He has put Barack Obama in a precarious position.

By his combative tone today, Reverend Wright has undercut Senator Obama’s message of change and racial reconciliation. Wright has transformed what was merely an issue of Obama’s pastor making incendiary remarks on YouTube into a black versus white issue. Reverend Wright took the bait of those making political hay and gave them more haymaking fodder. He has turned the issue into an attack on black churches rather than what was a political attack on Barack Obama.

To win in November, Barack Obama will have to distance himself from Reverend Wright’s tone. As Obama explained in Philadelphia, frustration exists across the racial divide. It is the way Obama chose to address that frustration that distinguished Obama from Wright and made him such an appealing candidate. Now Obama will be forced to push Wright further away just as Wright seems bent on tying himself to Obama.

The danger for Obama is that this time as he pushes Wright away he risks alienating the African American vote. Wright has portrayed the controversy as an attack on the black church. Obama’s task is to put distance between himself and Reverend Wright without risking his strong base of support in the African American community – a constituency without whose strong support at the polls no Democrat can win the general election. In Philadelphia last month, Obama had to reassure white voters that he was who he said he was. This time he has trouble on both sides. Trouble created, it seems quite intentionally, in the last few days by Jeremiah Wright.

How Barack Obama handles this moment will likely determine whether he becomes the next President of the United States. On the issues, Barack Obama has the better of the argument against John McCain. In November if he runs against McCain he wins. The Republicans’ only chance this November is to make the election about race. Jeremiah Wright has now given the Republicans a giant opening. Barack Obama needs to move this election past race and onto the issues. If he cannot he will lose in November.

This is a defining moment in this campaign. It is likely that this week, as Barack Obama responds to Jeremiah Wright, he will win or lose the presidency.

 

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Watching The Pennsylvania Results Come In

1:50AM With 98.91% of the precincts reporting the Pennsylvania secretary of state reports Clinton 54.3% to Obama 45.7%, or a margin of between 8 and 9 points. There is currently a vote difference of 193,377. Hillary Clinton, after all the sound and fury, will only net somewhere between 8 to 11 delegates coming out of Pennsylvania. Barack Obama just spent Hillary Clinton into debt and she barely got a handful of delegates.

10:38PM Philadelphia is coming in very strong for Obama, currently 65% to 35% (with over 125,000 vote margin) with 95% of the precincts reporting. The Philadelphia suburbs are yet to come in. Currently with 76% of the precincts reporting in Pennsylvania Clinton leads 54% to 46%. Her popular vote lead in Pennsylvania is currently about 140,000. That puts her on track for less than 200,000 vote margin out of Pennsylvania. It looks like, if these numbers hold (and they may narrow), Hillary Clinton has lost ground on Barack Obama with time running out. What was impossible is about to become even more so after Pennsylvania is done.

9:35PM With 20% of the precincts reporting, Clinton leads about 53% to 47%. Philadelphia is slow to come in, but enough has come in for the networks to call it for Clinton. Obama is winning Philadelphia with nearly 60%. He needed about 70% to turn the race in his favor. But 60% in Philadelphia may be enough to keep the margin of Clinton’s victory small.

8:51PM MSNBC calls it for Hillary Clinton. Now we wait for all the votes to come in to see what her margin of victory is.

8:37PM MSNBC has changed their designation from "too close to call" to "too early to call". With nearly none of the precincts reporting Clinton has a lead. The change in terminology suggests that MSNBC will eventually call it for Clinton. The real question is by how much will she win.

8:22PM There are some interesting exit polls for Obama. He is taking Philadelphia by 69%, Philadelphia suburbs by 62%, Pittsburgh by 38% and holding at 42% in the rest of the state. Those numbers are in Ed Rendell territory (Rendell beat Casey by 10 points by raking up numbers around Philadelphia). Obama is also doing significantly better amongst white men than he did in Ohio. I am still holding to my prediction of Clinton 52.8% to Obama 47.2%, but these exit polls are pleasantly surprising.

8:09PM The conversation on MSNBC is about how Clinton can exit the race gracefully. The atmospherics coming from the Clinton campaign suggest they are preparing the ground to spin a narrow victory. It’s either rope-a-dope or genuine nervousness. We shall see.

8:00PM As polls close MSNBC has it too close to call. This could be a long night.

7:26PM Polls close in about 30 minutes. Early exit polls abound. On the aggregate, unreliable, early exits Drudge has Clinton up 52% to 48%, while NRO has Obama up 52% to 47%. Both numbers probably mean practically nothing. The internal numbers from exit polls from CNN, MSNBC and others are much more interesting. Gun owners go to Clinton 58% to 42%, African Americans go to Obama 92% to 8%, first time voters go to Obama 60% to 38%, late deciders go to Clinton 58% to 42%, white males go to Clinton 55% to 45%.

Hillary Clinton’s topline number (that with gun owners) is 58% to 42%. Assuming all Pennsylvanians owned guns, Clinton would win by a 16% margin.  Given that some other demographics are going to Obama, and some substantially toward Obama, the exits suggest a single digit Clinton victory at best. The real wildcard is what percentage of the vote Obama wins in and around Philadelphia and what percentage of the total votes comes from that region. Reports suggest huge turnout in and around Philadelphia. We will find out how large in the next few hours.

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Closing Argument

Hillary Clinton’s closing argument in Pennsylvania:

Barack Obama’s closing argument in Pennsylvania:

and Bill Clinton tells you why you should vote for Barack Obama:

Pennsylvania goes to the polls tomorrow. The polls have steadied over the last week and, while he remains behind Clinton by about 6 points in the polls, there may be a slight Obama momentum going into tomorrow. My prediction is here (I am sticking to it until I am put to shame by the actual results!). But tomorrow evening we will be counting the results of the only poll that matters.

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