Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

The military in Bangladesh has suffered a setback in its systematic plan to dismantle democracy in what was the world’s 5th most populous democracy. There have been a number of fast breaking developments in the last 48 hours. Early yesterday the military was poised to forcibly send one former prime minister, Khaleda Zia, into exile while preventing another former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, from returning to Bangladesh. Over the weekend the military had also secured an arrest warrant against Sheikh Hasina on "murder charges". Simultaneously the military accused Hasina of being a "fugitive" while banning her from returning to the country.

But the military may have overreached. The drama over the weekend unfolded on three continents.

The first crack in the military’s plan occurred when the Bangladesh High Court responded to a Habeas Corpus petition filed on behalf of Khaleda Zia protesting the military government’s action restricting her to her house without charge. The High Court has ordered the military government to explain in writing within five days why the court should not order the government to produce Khaleda Zia in court to prove that she is not under house arrest. This apparent challenge to the military rulers by the Bangladeshi judiciary effectively postponed Zia’s forcible removal from Bangladesh. To make matters worse for the military, while a chartered plane hired to fly Zia out of the country and into exile in Saudi Arabia waited on the tarmac at the international airport in Dhaka, the Saudi Arabian government refused to grant Khaleda Zia a visa unless she was brought to the Saudi embassy in Dhaka and affirmed that she was leaving Bangladesh on her own free will. Sensing the shifting winds, Khaleda Zia is now refusing to leave Bangladesh and be exiled.

Meanwhile in London, Sheikh Hasina was denied passage on a British Airways flight back to Bangladesh on orders of the Bangladesh military. The drama at Heathrow finally resulted in widespread press coverage in the western media and around the world. Following the lead of the Bangladesh High Court, a lower court in Bangladesh suspended the warrant against Hasina citing lack of evidence and an incomplete investigation.

In London the British Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, raised the issue of the banning of Sheikh Hasina with the Bangladesh military government’s foreign affairs advisor. US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns was reportedly a little more blunt with the Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States. He said, "The interim government in Bangladesh has become occupied with unnecessary issues although its prime business is holding a free and fair election…It is unacceptable to the international community."

Suddenly, with mounting international and domestic pressure, the military finds itself back on its heels. Today the Bangladesh Election Commission, now led in part by a retired military officer, unexpectedly struck a conciliatory tone. Speaking for the Commission, Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat  declared that the ban on politics may be lifted on May 8th.

Two government advisors, who earlier had been quite vocal about their zest for "fixing" Bangladesh with army muscle, have suddenly gone silent:

Two influential advisers of the interim government, Barrister Mainul Hosein and MA Matin, yesterday did not speak to the media about politics, unlike they usually do.

They declined to say anything about the prevailing political situation despite repeated requests from the journalists. Earlier on a number of occasions the two had talked about different political issues including reforms of the parties and the role of the past governments.

Reporters waited for Communications Adviser MA Matin for several hours on the corridor to the shipping ministry conference room yesterday. But when they got hold of him, he refused to talk about the fate of Awami League (AL) President Sheikh Hasina and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia or about the other political developments.

He, however, briefed them about a meeting on various development projects in the shipping sector.

Meanwhile, Law Adviser Mainul Hosein met a scrum of newspaper and TV reporters as he came out of a meeting at the information ministry.

"We are a non-political caretaker government and so I should say nothing about politics," he said when the newsmen wanted to know the latest about the probability of Khaleda going into exile and the arrest warrant against Hasina.

"I don’t know," he replied curtly when asked if the government had requested the British Airways not to carry Hasina home.

As to whether Khaleda Zia would be produced before the court, the law adviser said, "The court will decide on the matter."

"The political situation is difficult and I do not have answers of all the questions," he observed when a journalist wanted to know how come the government seeks Interpol’s help to get back crime suspects or convicts from abroad while on the other hand, bars another accused from returning to the country.

The two men, who had only recently spoke with such disdain about the politicians, are now more concerned with their own uncertain futures.

Fourteen leading intellectuals of Bangladesh have signed a statement calling the military’s purge of the political parties and the plan to exile the two main political leaders "shortsighted and injudicious". The press in Bangladesh, which had been under threat of banning from the military, have suddenly found their voice again. They are now openly defying the military’s orders to not report on Sheikh Hasina’s views. They are also suddenly writing articles critical of the military government. The leading English newspaper of Bangladesh, The Daily Star, having relocated to new servers, is now freely reporting on the events in Bangladesh.

Overnight the supposed "popularity" of the military regime seems to have collapsed.

Still these are dangerous times. As the Economist pointed out last week, the military has no exit strategy in Bangladesh. If the military does go back to the barracks, the general who had taken the reigns of power, General Moeen U Ahmed, is likely to lose his job and perhaps his freedom. The fear of prosecution might force the generals in charge to shed the thin veneer of "civilian rule" and impose full-bore martial law on Bangladesh. There is no easy way back to civilian rule if the current army rulers were to lose control. The situation is ripe for another coup in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is now at a crossroads. The courts, the press, and leading voices in Bangladesh have begun to challenge the military. They will need international support and protection to avoid a possible crushing blow from the military. There are still one hundred and fifty thousand people behind bars and held without charge or bail. Human rights abuses are common. Torture and mysterious death in army custody is still the norm. The move to exile the political leaders may have finally exposed the army to international scrutiny; however, that has not yet translated into what should be the goal of all defenders of freedom and democracy – that is, the right of the people to live in freedom and without fear of persecution. That goal remains still elusive. The army is still not back to the barracks.

The democratic spirit in Bangladesh is strong. May it survive this assault upon it.

Late Updates:

BDNews24 reports that a petition has been filed with the High Court challenging the ban on Sheikh Hasina:

A writ petition was filed with the High Court (HC) Tuesday challenging the validity of the government press note that barred former prime minister Sheikh Hasina from returning home. The petition asked the government to remove hurdles from her return path. The petition moved by Hasina’s lawyers said stopping her from returning to her country was unconstitutional. The hearing was set for Sunday. Justice Abu Nayeem Md Mominur Rahman and Justice Zubayer Rahman Chowdhury notified Hasina’s lawyers that the hearing of the petition will be held Sunday.

International Herald Tribune reports that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have refused to accept Khaleda Zia into forced exile:

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have refused to allow Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia into their countries, complicating a plan by Bangladesh’s government to exile her, news reports said Tuesday.

The New Age and the News Today newspapers reported that the Saudi embassy in Dhaka has refused to grant her a visa because the embassy was not convinced that Zia was leaving the country of her own volition.

The embassy did not accept Zia’s signature in the visa application form, saying it does not prove that she wants to go to the kingdom, the News Today said.

Saudi embassy and Bangladeshi officials could not be immediately reached for comment.

The government also tried to convince Kuwait and Qatar to take Zia but those attempts also have failed, the News Today report said.

An op-ed in The Guardian comments on the military regime:

Bangladesh is rapidly moving from being the world’s fifth largest democratic state, to the world’s largest state of total uncertainty. Since January 11, when the military stepped in to avert certain chaos and cancelled January’s scheduled but highly contentious general election, imposing a caretaker government under a state of emergency, the caretaker government, whilst initially very popular here, is beginning to look less military-backed and more military-run.

…

But in spite of the highly extra-constitutional nature of the caretaker government, the 150,000 people estimated to have been detained, the 60 or so people who have died in military custody, the suspension of fundamental rights, the abandonment of due process and the gagging of the media from making any serious criticism, it is the erasure of all signs of democracy that is beginning to cause alarm amongst Bangladesh’s civil society.

The honeymoon is over. To suspend the political process and attempt to lock out or away political leaders without currently offering any alternative is dangerous. Elections are hoped for by the end of 2008 but there is no set timeline and Lieutenant General Moeen Ahmed, who led the coup and is being seen as de facto leader of the country, has stated that he doesn’t want Bangladesh to revert to an elective democracy that might lead to the same problems as before. Increasingly it is feared that any election will be designed to achieve a pre-set goals.

…

Yet, currently the electoral commission isn’t even allowed to communicate with parties; they have operationally ceased to exist. The longer true politics is banned and the democratic past is denied, the greater the opportunity for Islamic extremists, who are already prospering in rural areas, to take advantage of the vacuum. This is the worst-case scenario for western governments who currently have maintained "satisfaction" with the caretaker regime.

With all politics banned until it will suit the style desired by the military, one wonders when Bangladesh’s civil society might have the courage to publicly speak out of turn. This year marks the 30th anniversary of Charter 77, and although the situation in Dhaka today is radically different to Prague in the 70s, the actions of the Chartists, which they maintained was not organised political opposition and therefore legitimate, offers an interesting precedent.

Something must be done to arrest the attempted "normalisation" of a highly abnormal environment. The Chartists were able to ostensibly highlight their government’s denial of the Helsinki Accords, but this caretaker regime hasn’t committed to anything other than elections when they feel the time is right. Nearly 150 million people have no power, no means, let alone right of protest, and currently no political alternative to go back to, no matter how much maligned. If Bangladesh, a country that’s history is characterised by fighting for freedom, slips back under military dictatorship yet again, then it will be more than its own people made to feel morally bankrupt.

[Cross posted from the Daily Kos. I sent the following letter to Senator Kennedy last night. I sent similar letters to Senators John Warner and Jim Webb, and Congressman Frank Wolf of Virginia.]

Dear Senator Kennedy,

A few months ago I wrote a diary on the Daily Kos thanking you for coming to the aid of the Bangladeshi people in our time of need more than three decades ago. I ask you today to lend the people of Bangladesh your voice once again. Though the danger last time was greater, the threat remains the same. Once again the people of Bangladesh find themselves at the mercy of the military. In 1971 the struggle was to create a secular democracy in a Muslim majority country where Bengalis, regardless of their religion, could live without fear of persecution. Having created that democracy, the struggle today is to defend that democracy, with all its flaws, against the grip of unaccountable military leaders.

Bangladesh has been under a state of emergency since January 11, 2007. Since then the military has taken control under the guise of a civilian technocratic “interim government”. Fundamental rights have been suspended, 150,000 people have been put behind bars without charge or bail, freedom of expression and press has ended, political activity has been banned, and criticism of the military government has been declared illegal. The military man in charge, General Moeen U Ahmed, has declared that Bangladesh does not need “elective democracy” – instead he suggests a new form of “democracy” based in part on Islam. The military is systematically dismantling remnants of democracy under the guise of an “anti-corruption” drive. Just over this weekend, the military has tried to forcibly send one former prime minister, and leader of one main political party, into exile while preventing another former prime minister, and leader of the other main political party, from reentering the country from England.

According to news reports, the United States Ambassador to Bangladesh, Patricia Butenis, has offered encouragement to the new military government to carry on their political purge. There has been no protest from the State Department over the dismantling of the world’s 5th largest democracy and one of the few, if not the only, examples of democracy in the Islamic world.

Bangladesh was founded on secular principles and Bangladeshis have always resisted religion based politics. However, as the New York Times pointed out in its editorial last weekend, military governments in the Islamic world tend to give power to Islamists. This has been the case in Pakistan. It was also the case in Bangladesh the last time the military wrestled power in the coup of 1975 – then the country was briefly declared to be the “Islamic Republic of Bangladesh”. That time it took the people of Bangladesh 16 years to send the military back to the barracks.

Bangladesh has not been a perfect democracy. The last government was accused of rampant corruption. Nonetheless, Bangladesh has proven that it is capable of holding its democratically elected leaders to account at the ballot box and in the courts of law. This time should have been no different. The military, however, saw their opportunity to move in to “fix” the problems of Bangladesh. In doing so, they have further corrupted the system and have set Bangladesh back once again.

Yet, it is not too late to send the military back to the barracks. The United States wields enormous influence in Bangladesh, both political and economic. I urge the United States Congress to stand with the people of Bangladesh in defending the democratic experiment there. A democratic Bangladesh surely is in the national security interest of the United States. I humbly request your help to give voice to Bangladesh’s democratic traditions because the people of Bangladesh are currently unable to voice their concern.

There are many other crises in the world. I understand that the crisis in Bangladesh is one amongst many, and certainly not the most pressing to the United States. I hope you will find the time to read this appeal for help. I was extremely humbled when you not only read, but replied to, my previous diary on Daily Kos. I hold out the hope that you will get a chance to also read this appeal. I am also forwarding a copy of this appeal directly to your office via email.

Sincerely,

Mash

Resources:
The New York Times Editorial from last weekend
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/opinion/15sun2.html?ex=1177387200&en=ec71cc288bf4a63f&ei=5070

The Economist article on the political purge in Bangladesh
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9027087

My post on the military takeover
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/4/15/16911/5514

The BBC news report on the barring of the former prime minister
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6581651.stm

My previous Daily Kos diary on Senator Kennedy
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/1/10/01830/5686

From BBC News:

Bangladesh’s ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been prevented from boarding a flight home from London after the Dhaka government barred her return.

The military-backed interim government has asked all international airlines not to carry her.

It says she will be arrested over the deaths of four protesters during a riot last October if she returns home.

Sheikh Hasina has vowed to return to Bangladesh to clear her name and participate in elections.

Speaking on leaving Heathrow airport in London, Sheikh Hasina said the Bangladeshi authorities had sent a letter to British Airways, telling them not to carry her or they would not be allowed to land in Dhaka.

"I am ready to go to jail if necessary but I want to go back to my country," she said, adding that she would now consider her next moves.

Sheikh Hasina, who leads the opposition Awami League, left Bangladesh in late March, a few weeks after the interim government declared a state of emergency.

Update (4/22/2007 8:45 PM):

Item 1: A court in Bangladesh has issued an arrest warrant against Sheikh Hasina on the charge of murder, conveniently on the same day she attempted to fly back. They have branded her a "fugitive". This will allow the government to confiscate her property and assets in Bangladesh. If you are as confused as I am that the military government should brand her as a "fugitive" while at the same time barring her from returning to the country to face the charges, then you have now tasted a little bit of the doublspeak that military dictatorships are capable of.

British Labour Party MP Emily Thornberry accompanied Sheikh Hasina to Heathrow Airport earlier today when she was denied passage on British Airways. She negotiated unsuccessfully with British Airways at Heathrow. She has also said that she will raise the issue of Hasina’s banning with British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett and also in the British parliament.

Item 2: The High Court in Bangladesh has responded to a Habeas Corpus petition filed on behalf of Khaleda Zia protesting the military government’s action restricting her to her house without charge. The High Court has ordered the military government to explain in writing within five days why the court should not order the government to produce Khaleda Zia in court to prove that she is not under house arrest. This has thrown a wrench into the military’s plans to send Zia into exile – Zia remains in Bangladesh and plans to ship her to Saudi Arabia have at least for the moment been postponed. It appears that, while the lower courts appear to have already buckled, the High Court is challenging the military at least at some level. This could get real ugly real soon.

At this moment, according to sources from Bangladesh, the immediate past prime minister of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, is being forcibly expelled from Bangladesh by the military. News reports from Bangladesh suggest that reporters are amassed at the international airport in Dhaka awaiting the former prime minister. Sources from Bangladesh tell me that three cars with tinted windows have arrived at the airport carrying the former prime minister, her youngest son, and two daughters-in-law. They are to be forcibly deported to Saudi Arabia. This is the latest sign that the army in Bangladesh is systematically dismantling democracy and the major political parties in the country. Still, there is radio silence from Washington and words of encouragement to the army from the American Embassy in Bangladesh.

Khaleda Zia is poised to leave Bangladesh after the army blackmailed her by arresting her youngest son. Another former prime minister and leader of the other major political party in Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, is being prevented from entering Bangladesh. She is currently in London and trying to enter Bangladesh. Already British Airways has refused to fly her to Bangladesh after the Bangladesh army told all airlines that they would not be allowed to land in Bangladesh if she were on board.

Meanwhile protests have broken out in a number of cities in Bangladesh as the economic and political situation continues to deteriorate. News reports, currently under the watchful eyes of the military, indicate a major clash has taken place between the armed forces and jute mill workers who took to the streets demanding back pay.

The future of Bangladesh hangs in the balance this weekend. Will Bangladesh, which was the world’s fifth largest democracy and one of the world’s most populous Muslim majority nations, be able to repel the onslaught of the military on its democratic system and its constitution? The military, until now, has been able to consolidate its grip on power, under the guise of fighting "corruption", with the tacit support of the United States and the United Kingdom. Will the US and the UK continue to back the military as it openly destroys an important Muslim democracy, one that only recently the United States highlighted as a model for democracy in Muslim countries?

There are signs of movement, at least in the United Kingdom. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has met with Lord Avebury, the Vice Chair of Parliamentary Human Rights group at the House of Lords in the UK. He expressed concern about the ongoing human rights violations in Bangladesh and the plan to exile the political leadership of the country. The British High Commission in Bangladesh has sought clarification from the Bangladesh government regarding the exile attempts. No such clarification has been sought by the Bush Administration.

In the event Sheikh Hasina attempts to return by air to Bangladesh, the Bangladesh military reportedly has drafted the following plan of action:

Phase 1

Two BAF F-7BG AC will escort out the aircraft from the BD airspace to further south towards the Bay of Bengal.

Phase 2

If the Phase 1 fails,the DAC air traffic control will not give clearance to the aircraft carrying Hasina to land and following Phase 1.

But it is important that the aircraft does not land at the first place. The whole action can be performed legally under all international laws and charters.

It is allowed under international law to deny entry to any aircraft to one’s airspace. Iran has recently denied entry of an aircraft carrying Iraqi PM. US homeland security regularly excercise this option to prevent people from coming to the US who it believes to threaten us national security.

The Bangladesh army is carrying out its plan to dismantle democracy in Bangladesh with brutal precision: fundamental rights have been suspended; 150,000 people have been arrested and many are being tortured; political activity has been banned; freedom of the press has been taken away; and, the political leadership is being exiled.

Democracy in Bangladesh is dying. It is time for the United States to either stand with democracy or stand with dictators. If there is any hope of sending the army in Bangladesh back to the barracks peacefully, it is the United States who must exert some pressure. The United States holds enormous sway over Bangladesh, both economic and political. Without such pressure it will be left up to the people of Bangladesh to fight the men with the guns. The Bangladeshi people have in the past and will continue to fight for their right to live in a free and democratic country. They have succeeded twice before in dislodging military dictators. The first time it was at a cost of 3 million lives, the second time it took 16 years. This time the people of Bangladesh could use a helping hand from the beacon of freedom and democracy in the world, the United States.