Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

The headline today on The Politico is "Virginia GOP fears McCain could lose the state". Let’s make their fears a reality.

John McCain’s brother was in Loudoun County - my county - today. He called Northern Virginia a "communist country". To be more precise, he singled out Arlington County and Alexandria for scorn. Are you folks in Arlington and Alexandria going to take this crap from the McCains?

Why would Joe McCain make such a remark? Well, it appears that the polls may have something to do with it. The polls show that Barack Obama has a slight lead in Virginia. Virginia was supposed to be solidly Republican. But, on the strength of support in Northern Virginia Barack Obama has made Virginia competitive. The McCain campaign knows that if we get out to the polls on November 4th, Virginia will hand the presidency to Barack Obama. So, they are scared. They are drowning in fear:

Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain’s prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy. With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed.

The two best indicators of which states the campaigns are serious about – time and money – tell the story.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination in June, Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate Joe Biden have visited the commonwealth a combined 12 times. The candidate himself was in the Tidewater city of Newport News Saturday.

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth’s most populous region.

“I think [McCain] needs to get here,” said Rep. Tom Davis, a longtime member of Congress who represents a Northern Virginia district. “I think they’ve got to pay more attention.”

Let’s help the Republicans out. Let’s throw them an anvil.

Tomorrow, Monday October 6th, is the voter registration deadline in Virginia. If you have not yet registered, and you want to part of an historic election, you have one more day to file your registration form. You can send your registration via mail or you can go to your local registration office. Visit Vote For Change or the Virginia State Board of Elections website to get the registration form and to get the process started.

After you have ensured that you are registered, throw one more anvil on November 4th by casting your vote.

We Virginians have elected a Democratic governor in 2005. We elected a Democratic Senator in 2006. On November 4th, with your help, we will elect Mark Warner our second Democratic Senator and Barack Obama president of the United States.

To all my Virginia readers (you know who you are!), if you are not yet registered to vote, you need to mail your voter registration form by the end of next Monday, October 6th. If you plan to mail your form, it must be postmarked by October 6th. You can also go in person to your local voter registration office and submit your registration form. If you do not register in time, you will not be able to cast your vote on November 4th.

To fill out and print the voter registration form, you can go to Vote For Change or to the Virginia State Board of Elections website. If you plan to submit your form in person, you can locate your local voter registration office here. Registering to vote is quick and easy and only takes a few minutes.

For the first time since 1964, the Democratic presidential candidate has a real chance to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. A Virginian’s vote has never been so important. It is very likely that Virginia voters will determine the next president of the United States.

In 2006, Jim Webb won the Senate seat from Virginia by a mere 9329 votes. That was a sliver of a margin - 0.39% - out of nearly 2.5 million votes cast. He won by a huge voter turnout in Northern Virginia, by tipping Loudoun County blue, and by running up votes in the Tidewater region. Every vote mattered.

Every vote will matter November 4th.

Barack Obama currently holds a small lead in the composite poll results in Virginia over John McCain. However, the latest poll - the respected Mason-Dixon poll - shows McCain leading Obama 48% to 45%. The race is still neck and neck. The election will certainly be decided on the margins by which candidate can get his voters to the polls. But to get to the polls, you have to be registered to vote.

 I am told that even Homer Simpson is registered to vote this year:

I just returned from the Barack Obama and Joe Biden rally at University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia. I went equipped with a camera. I had hoped to have a lot of pictures of Obama and Biden on stage to share with you. But I have no such pictures to show you. I never got to see them.

I am absolutely thrilled by the experience.

I left my home in Loudoun County, Virginia this afternoon under sunny skies for the one hour drive to Fredericksburg. I took my seven year old daughter with me. We arrived near the campus a little after 4pm and found parking about a mile and a half away. As I drove past the university I saw the line of people waiting to get in. It seemed to go around the perimeter of the university campus. I was undeterred. I had been to the Obama rally at the Nissan Pavilion in Northern Virginia right after the primaries. Although it was crowded, the lines were not too bad and I was still able to watch the rally from the cheap seats.

By the time my daughter and I made it from our car to end of the line, the line had grown much longer. Then it began to rain. I figured a little rain wasn’t going to keep me from this rally.

Then it began to pour. Luckily the two men behind us in line had a big umbrella, and they offered my daughter space under it. I was a little too big to make it four under the umbrella. So I, like the thousands of others in line, took the downpour in stride. The line inched forward slowly. More the rain came down, the longer the line grew behind us. I spent my time chatting with the grand mother and her grand son in front of me and the two middle aged men behind me. All four said that this is the first political rally they had ever attended in their lives.

An hour and a half in the rain, and about one mile on from where we started in line, we finally entered the campus. And then we made our way toward the field where Obama would speak.

We never got to the field. It was full. Instead, we stood along with thousands of others within hearing distance of the field, but not within view of it.

And finally the rain stopped, and we waited and chatted with our very wet fellow Virginians.

Just before 7pm, Joe Biden took to the stage (or, what I assume was a stage) to an immense cheer. We heard him warm up the crowd. He skewered McCain with some post-debate contrast. "Time and again John was wrong…Barack was right. It is about judgment."

Then he introduced Obama. And the crowd went wild. We heard Obama say "Hello Virginia" and the place erupted, including those of us in the audio only section.

I am sure you will see YouTube of Obama’s speech shortly. All I can say is that it was rousing and he connected with the crowd, as he always does. Even those of us who could only hear him felt part of the moment. The importance of this election, and the sudden importance of Virginia in the electoral math, was on all of our minds.

What I find amazing is that all these people stood in a line for hours, in the pouring rain, just to hear - not see - the candidate speak. The enthusiasm level was far greater than it was at the previous raucous rally at the Nissan Pavilion. The crowd was much bigger tonight, and no one seemed to want to go home.

Virginia was a red state. Democrats do not usually draw crowds like this here. I do not really know what the crowd size was - I couldn’t see the field where the rally was held. But judging by the length of the line, and the size of the audio only crowd, the total number had to be massive. This was something extraordinary. 

Virginia is poised to turn blue. There is something afoot here. We were wet today, but we came and stayed - by the thousands. Come Election Day, this kind of enthusiasm will carry the day for the Democratic candidate for president. We here in Virginia fully intend to put Barack Obama over 270 electoral votes on the night of November 4th.

Yes we can.

Update:  Washington Post is reporting that the crowd at the rally was 26,000. 12,000 watched Obama in Ball Circle, while 14,000 of us were outside the Circle listening to him.

2006 Virginia US Senate County-by-County Results (Webb - blue; Allen - red)

Barack Obama is now leading John McCain in Virginia, according to 2 new polls released today. Obama leads McCain 51% to 45% in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Obama leads McCain 49% to 46% in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Perennially red Virginia is now within reach for Barack Obama. On November 4th, if Barack Obama wins Virginia he will have won the presidency.

Powered by the strength of strong support in Northern Virginia, in Richmond, and in the Tidewater region in the Southeast, Obama is poised to do what no other Democrat has done since 1964.

Barack Obama is polling very similar to how Jim Webb won his senate seat in 2006. The map is very similar to 2006. However, the demographics in Northern Virginia and Richmond are even more favorable to Democrats this year. The college educated liberal Northern Virginia suburbs have expanded outward into what were more rural counties surrounding the Washington DC suburbs. Once conservative Loudoun County - one of the outer suburbs of Washington DC - , which was primarily rural just a few years ago, has seen dramatic growth in the last 2 years. Similarly, Prince William County - home to the battlefields of Bull Run - has seen rapid growth as the Washington DC suburbs have grown outwards thanks partly to George W Bush’s deregulated push toward the so-called ownership society. The city of Richmond, with its large African American voter base, promises to come out strongly for Barack Obama.

In 2006, Jim Webb beat George Allen by winning the key regions of the state, including its population centers:

• He won Northern Virginia 60% to 40%
• He won the Southeast 53% to 47%
• He lost the East (which includes Richmond) 45% to 55%
• He lost the rural West/Shenandoah region 43% to 57%

Looking at the SurveyUSA crosstabs, Obama is polling in the regions as follows:

• Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 38%
• Obama is winning the Southeast 53% to 43%
• Obama is winning the East (including Richmond) 49% to 45%
• Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 40% to 54%

The ABC News/Washington Post crosstabs show the following:

• Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 35%
• Obama is winning the Southeast 50% to 45%
• Obama is losing the East (including Richmond) 45% to 50%
• Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 39% to 57%

Obama’s map to victory in Virginia looks remarkably similar to Jim Webb’s in 2006.

The voter distribution in the 2006 election was 27% from Northern Virginia, 19% from the Southeast, 36% from the East, and 19% from the rural West. Just like 2006, Virginia will be decided by voter turnout in Northern Virginia counties of Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun, in Richmond, and in Tidewater cities of Norfolk and Newport News. John McCain will win the rural Southeast handily, but there are simply not enough voters there to counter Barack Obama’s advantage in the population centers.

Northern Virginia is energized and surging for Obama. My conversations with Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia bode well for Obama. Many undecideds were swayed to Obama by McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin may have energized the Republican base in deep red states, but here in Virginia McCain lost the moderates with his gimmick.

Obama’s ground game here in Northern Virginia is in full swing. Every day Obama volunteers are going door to door registering voters ahead of the registration deadline in October. There are community get togethers, planning meetings, and minority outreach (with no sign of George "macaca" Allen) every weekend. All this energy should translate into a large voter turnout on election day. If the polls hold Obama will carry Northern Virginia with 60% of the vote and flip Virginia from red to blue.

Virginia voters never really matter in presidential elections. All that of course has changed this year. The Old Dominion is looking forward to making history in November.

Barack Obama’s victory speech delivered at Madison, Wisconsin after winning Virginia, Maryland and DC:

Virginia County-by-County results (as of 2/13/2008 1:00 AM):

The map below shows how total Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton is shaping up to be. Obama (counties in dark blue) has taken most of the heavily populated regions of Virginia. Hillary Clinton has taken the sparsely populated rural southwestern parts of Virginia.

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Virginia is at the polls today along with Maryland and DC. Polls in Virginia close at 7pm, about half an hour from now.

I cast my ballot this morning at my local polling station. I received 4 email reminders from the Obama campaign between yesterday and this morning to go and vote today. I received no calls or emails from the Clinton campaign. The Obama emails contained helpful links to look up my polling place. At the polling station in Northern Virginia there was one Hillary Clinton sign and multiple Obama signs. There were also Obama signs all over the neighborhood. Of special note was the enthusiastic and friendly Ron Paul volunteer (in the picture above) who greeted voters as they headed toward the polling station.

There was a steady stream of voters at my station. It appeared that the turnout was heavier than normal for my neighborhood. However, the weather in Northern Virginia has turned icy for the afternoon rush hour. Its not clear how much it will impact the late voter turnout. At my work place, most of my co-workers who had not voted in the morning left early today and were headed for their respective polling stations. CNN is reporting that turnout is high in Northern Virginia, Richmond and the Charlottesville area - all areas that are strongholds for Obama voters. Richmond turnout is reported to be record-breaking.

If the pre-voting polls hold, this could be a big night for Barack Obama in Virginia.

Updates to follow as the results come in…

UPDATE (2/12/2008 7:08 PM): CNN and NBC have already projected that Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in Virginia. Now it remains to be seen how wide the margin of victory will be and how many delegates Obama will pick up from Virginia.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 8:36 PM): Barack Obama is the projected winner in the District of Columbia. Maryland poll closing has been extended to 9:30PM due to traffic delays voters are encountering on the icy roads. Hillary Clinton’s deputy campaign manager just resigned.

The Virginia primary is shaping up to be a landslide. Currently with 61% of the precincts reporting Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 62% to 37%. The exit polls from Virginia is also shaping up to be bad news for Hillary Clinton. Obama took the Black vote 90% to 10%. Obama and Clinton split the White vote. Obama won amongst men and women. Clinton won amongst White women only. Obama won two to one amongst independents. Obama also won the Latino vote in Virginia. As was predicted Obama won everywhere in Virginia except rural Southwestern Virginia. This was an overwhelming victory for Barack Obama in Virginia.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 9:30PM): The networks are reporting that as the polls close in Maryland Barack Obama will win by a "significant" margin. This is shaping up to be a huge night for Barack Obama.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 9:54 PM): With 87% of the precincts in Virginia reporting Barack Obama’s victory is turning out to be a landslide. He is now ahead of Hillary Clinton 63% to 36%.

 UPDATE (2/13/2008 1:00 AM): A genuine thumping:

• Virginia: Barack Obama 64%, Hillary Clinton 35% (99% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 28 more delegates than Clinton.
• Maryland: Barack Obama 60%, Hillary Clinton 37% (69% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 4 more delegates than Clinton.
• District of Columbia: Obama 75%, Hillary Clinton 24% (98% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 5 more delegates than Clinton.

The first time I heard the name Barack Obama was in 2004 when he delivered the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. It was a rousing speech. The speech rivaled Mario Cuomo’s nominating speech at the 1992 Convention. The buzz at the time was that we were looking at a future President of the United States.

When Barack Obama entered the Presidential race last year I was excited. I knew the man could deliver a great speech, now I needed to hear his vision for America.

It was not until South Carolina did I hear what I was looking for. After winning the South Carolina primary Barack Obama delivered the speech that earned my vote. I was searching for Bobby Kennedy and on that evening I found his 21st century heir. If Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency it is the South Carolina speech that historians will point to as the pivotal moment of his campaign.

Tomorrow Virginia votes along with Maryland and the District of Columbia. I will cast my vote in the Virginia Democratic primary for Senator Barack Obama, the next President of the United States.

Looking ahead to March 4th, Barack Obama’s campaign has released what I believe is the most powerful television ad of this election season. The ad has begun to play in both Ohio and Texas. For a number of reasons the ad also touches me personally:

Go vote tommorrow Virginia. Yes we can.

After this weekend’s impressive wins in every state (and the Virgin Islands) that held a primary or caucus, Barack Obama is riding a wave of momentum while Hillary Clinton’s campaign appears to be in disarray. After today’s big win for Obama in Maine (where Obama was behind in the polls), the Clinton campaign stole the headlines - but not in a good way. The Clinton campaign announced tonight that its campaign manager had been replaced.

To date, Barack Obama has won 19 states to Hillary Clinton’s 10. Increasingly the map appears to be filling in for Obama. He is also now ahead in the number of pledged delegates. With a fundraising edge and rising in the polls, Barack Obama heads to the Beltway Primaries this Tuesday when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will hold their primaries. Obama is expected to handily carry both Maryland and DC.

Virginia is considered the state where Clinton may be able to slow Obama’s momentum. However, a series of polls over the last few days show Obama with significant leads in Virginia. The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Obama up by 16 points (Obama 53%, Clinton 37%). The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 18 points (Obama 55%, Clinton 37%). The latest SurveyUSA poll has Obama ahead by 20 points (Obama 59%, Clinton 39%). A poll taken by InsidersAdvantage also shows Obama with a 15 point lead (Obama 52%, Clinton 37%).

The numbers inside the polls also show Obama with significant advantages in Virginia. Both the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls show that Obama is even with Clinton amongst white voters in Virginia, while the Mason-Dixon poll shows Clinton leading amongst white voters (there is no demographic breakdowns in the InsidersAdvantage poll).  All polls have Obama leading by wide margins amongst Black voters in Virginia. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama leads amongst men and women, and all age groups except those over 65. Clinton still leads Obama amongst Hispanics, although the margin is shrinking. The SurveyUSA poll also shows Obama winning in every region of Virginia except the rural Shanandoahs to the Southwest. If the polls hold up, Obama is headed for a big win in Virginia this Tuesday.

If Obama takes the three primaries this Tuesday and wins the remainder of the contests in February, as he is likely to do, Hillary Clinton’s campaign will be reeling by the time the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio are held. Although the most recent polls show Clinton ahead in Ohio and Texas, both states are likely to tighten by the end of this month. With a bigger war chest and the momentum Obama will continue to gain in the polls. If he wins throughout February it is quite likely Ohio will move into the Obama column (a la Missouri). The Clinton campaign is now hoping to survive until March 4th and hold the line in Ohio and Texas. But as Rudy Giuliani’s experience in Florida showed, a string of losses can be debilitating. The early leads in the polls tend to evaporate as the other candidate keeps racking up wins.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign relied very much on the air of inevitability. She was supposed to have the Democratic nomination sewn up by Super Tuesday. However, that inevitability was demolished by Obama’s strong showing last week. Now it is a horserace in which Barack Obama caught up and is now pulling away. The conventional wisdom is that the race is so close that it may go all the way to the Democratic National Convention. However, a long string of losses for Hillary Clinton in February will drastically change the media buzz. Tuesday night, if Barack Obama has a big night (and that means winning Virginia), the headlines about the "neck and neck" race will suddenly change. The money may then begin to dry up and the superdelegates may start to move toward the frontrunner. If that happens this race is over.

Senator John Warner of Virginia has been admitted to INOVA Fairfax Hospital to correct an abnormal heartbeat:

U.S. Sen. John W. Warner was admitted to Inova Fairfax Hospital yesterday to correct an abnormal heartbeat, and he is expected to be home by the weekend and back at work next week, according to his Senate office.

Warner, 80, went to work yesterday but checked in with the Capitol physician’s office midmorning, according to a statement released by his office. He left for the hospital in the afternoon for a procedure to correct atrial fibrillation, or an irregular heartbeat. He is scheduled to undergo a second procedure today.

Senator Warner is one of the most respected members of the United States Senate and a leading voice on foreign policy. He represents Virginia with honor and distinction. Recently he announced that he would not seek another term in the Senate.

He is expected to make a full recovery.

Get well soon Senator.

I was at the Jim Webb rally this evening at the Clarendon Ballroom in Arlington, Virginia. Jim Webb, Michael J. Fox and General Wesley Clark spoke at the rally.

The Clarendon Ballroom is a pretty large room and it was packed with enthusiastic supporters. I wish I had gotten there earlier so that I could have gotten a better view from closer to the stage. This was the first time I saw and heard Jim Webb in person. I was thoroughly impressed. This guy is the genuine article. Words like integrity and gravitas come to mind when you hear him speak. I am looking forward to calling him Senator Webb next Tuesday evening.

Jim Webb spoke about the importance of supporting stem-cell research before introducing Michael J. Fox. The crowd went wild when Michael J. Fox took the stage and all I remember is that there were a lot of cheers when he made a passionate case for pursuing embryonic stem-cell research. The cheers turned to boos every time the name "Limbaugh" was mentioned.

The control of the United States Senate will be decided in Virginia next Tuesday. I don’t think much of Harold Ford’s chances in Tennessee, so it will be up to Missouri and Virginia. If the current trend continues and turnout is good, Jim Webb should carry Virginia.

Below are some more pictures I took at this evening’s rally:

George Allen’s desperate attempt to smear Jim Webb is likely to backfire with Virginia voters. Digging deep for dirt, George Allen has entered the realm of fiction. In Jim Webb’s novels, Macaca Allen thought he had hit pay dirt.

Last week the Allen campaign was finally able to get someone to publish the dirt they were peddling. The Drudge Report published passages from Webb’s novels in a last-ditch effort to sway Virginia voters. One of the books the Allen campaign believes is vulgar is Jim Webb’s novel "A Sense of Honor".

However, the novel George Allen finds vulgar, President Ronald Reagan found to be so significant that he quoted it at length at the United States Naval Academy Commencement Exercises in 1985:

One man who sat where you do now and graduated from the Naval Academy in 1968 is another member of our administration — Assistant Secretary of Defense James Webb, the most decorated member of his class. James’ gallantry as a marine officer in Vietnam won him the Navy Cross and other decorations, including two Purple Hearts. James wrote several books about American service men and women. In his book, “A Sense of Honor,'’ he describes the life that you have chosen. He wrote:

“Servicemen are always in motion, in the air at more than the speed of sound, underwater at depths whales could only dream of, on the surface of the water cruising at 30 miles an hour through crashing seas with another ship almost touching theirs . . . replenishing their oil supplies. Or they are on the ground, in the dirt, testing and training weapons that may someday kill others but today may deal them that same irony. The smallest margin of error separates a live man from a dead man. And in war, of course, they are the first and usually the only ones to pay. The President and the Congress may suffer bad news stories. The military man suffers the deaths of his friends, early and often.'’

So, is George Allen saying that President Ronald Reagan read smut? Surely, Senator George "Macaca" Allen would like to retract his accusations so that he doesn’t risk offending his base voters who admire the Great Communicator.