The Washington Post has an article today on an upcoming referendum in Wisconsin on withdrawal from Iraq. Although the referendum will likely fail, it is a sign of the growing polarization of public sentiment over our involvement in Iraq.
Our discourse is increasingly more bitter and more partisan. I think most observers on the right and on the left have now come to the conclusion that the original objectives of the war (finding WMD, bringing a pro western stable democracy, crushing the terrorists, etc.) are not going to be achieved. The discussion has turned now to "pull out now" vs. "pull out later". Even the most strident supporters of the war now define "stay the course" or "complete the mission" as meaning stay long enough to leave with some semblence of our credibility intact so that we can declare "victory" and get out.
It is reasonable to ask how vital our current mission in Iraq is to our national interest. Is it in our interest to stay in the hopes of preventing civil war and watch one happen nonetheless? What will be the role of the U.S. military when civil war breaks out? What will be the result of a quick American pullout? Is our involvement in Iraq worth the polarization of the American body politic and the long term harm it may cause our democratic system at home? Is 51% or 48% or 37% public support enough to support a foreign war? At what point do policymakers need to question their operating rationale for a war when the public is so divided?
Our choices are not at all attractive here. Pulling out now will certainly destabilize Iraq in the short term and no doubt hasten a civil war. Pulling out later will cost more American lives, and even though it may prolong the slide into civil war, will ultimately end in civil war with American forces caught in the middle. The stark calculation that needs to be made is the cost of American lives and credibility on the one hand versus the cost of a civil war in Iraq. I wish we were faced with an easier choice.
All this without even considering our inadvertant strengthening of Iran by our intervention in Iraq. Once we get past the "when to pull out" argument, we must clearly address how we go about dealing with a more powerful Iran in the region.
