Kirkuk, Oil And The Dance Of Death

Iraq's Kurdish Regrion [Click to Enlarge]The center of gravity in the civil war in Iraq is not Baghdad – it is Kirkuk. Kirkuk is the prize that the Sunnis lost, the Kurds want, and the Shia will not give. The Kirkuk oil field has about 10 billion barrels of oil reserves and produces almost half of Iraq’s oil exports. He who controls Kirkuk controls Iraq’s oil and Iraq’s wealth.

Over the last year Kirkuk has become the central front in the struggle for control of Iraq’s wealth. Kurdish peshmerga militias, Shia militias as well as Sunni insurgents have been slowly but surely taking up positions in and around Kirkuk in preparation for the bloodbath to come. The various militias in Kirkuk have been carefully maneuvering around each other under the watchful eyes of the American military. The battle for Kirkuk will likely begin when the American military begins its inevitable withdrawal from Iraq.

After the fall of Saddam the peshmerga quickly took control over Kirkuk. After Turkey expressed alarm at the possibility of Kurdish control of the Kirkuk oil fields (and the resulting wealth) the Kurdish militia withdrew to barracks outside the city. However, they have remained a presence in and around the city since that time. The Kurdish militias have also systematically infiltrated the Iraqi Army units in the north of Iraq:

Kurdish leaders have inserted more than 10,000 of their militia members into Iraqi army divisions in northern Iraq to lay the groundwork to swarm south, seize the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and possibly half of Mosul, Iraq’s third-largest city, and secure the borders of an independent Kurdistan.

While the Kurds reinforce their control of the Iraqi Army, the Shia militias have begun to pour into Kirkuk in recent weeks and months:

Hundreds of Shiite Muslim militiamen have deployed in recent weeks to this restive city — widely considered the most likely flash point for an Iraqi civil war — vowing to fight any attempt to shift control over Kirkuk to the Kurdish-governed north, according to U.S. commanders and diplomats, local police and politicians.

The Shia militias in Kirkuk along with the Sunni insurgents in and around Kirkuk are bound together in this struggle as Arabs versus the Kurdish militias. The maelstrom in Kirkuk is a peculiar confluence of oil, wealth, Arab and Kurdish nationalism. Ever since oil was first discovered in Kirkuk in the 1920s, Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen have been vying for control of this city’s riches. Starting in the 1960s the ruling Baath Party began a process of ethnic cleansing in Kirkuk. This ethnic cleansing, called "Arabization", forced Kurds, Turkmen and other ethnic groups from their homes and replaced them with ethnic Arabs from the south of Iraq:

Turkmens and Kurds alike were suppressed by the aggressive Arabism of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party. Official ”Arabization” began in the 1960’s and accelerated significantly in 1975, when the Iraqi regime began forcibly removing tens of thousands of Kurds, Turkmens and Assyrian Christians from Kirkuk and bringing in Arabs to take their place. This Arabization was chiefly motivated by the government’s wish to consolidate its grip on the oil-rich and fertile region — and to pre-empt a gradual demographic takeover of the city by the Kurds. Under Arabization, as many as 250,000 non-Arabs, mostly Kurds, were expelled north into Iraqi Kurdistan. Their former land titles were declared invalid, and ownership was assumed by the government, which rented the land to Arabs.

Kurdistan [Click to Enlarge]After the fall of Saddam the Kurds have reasserted control over Kirkuk. The Kurds consider Kirkuk to be the capital of a greater Kurdistan spanning from Turkey to Iran. The Kurds are prepared to fight in order to gain control of the city:

"Kirkuk is Kurdistan; it does not belong to the Arabs," Hamid Afandi, the minister of Peshmerga for the Kurdistan Democratic Party, one of the two major Kurdish groups, said. "If we can resolve this by talking, fine, but if not, then we will resolve it by fighting."

The Arabs, Shia and Sunni, are not prepared to hand over Kirkuk to the Kurds without a fight:

In a meeting here last week, Sadr’s representative in the city, Abdul Karim Khalifa, told U.S. officials that more armed loyalists were on the way and that as many as 7,000 to 10,000 Shiite residents were prepared to fight alongside the Mahdi Army if called upon. Legions more Shiite militiamen would push north from Baghdad’s Sadr City slum, he said, according to Wise.

"His message was essentially that any idea of Kirkuk going to the Kurds will mean a fight," Wise said. "He said that their policy here was different from in other places, that they are not going to attack coalition forces because their only enemy here is the Kurds."

The Shia militias in Kirkuk are currently outnumbered significantly by the peshmerga. However, any battle for Kirkuk is sure to draw in forces from Turkey and Iran. Both of these countries have Kurdish minorities that aspire for a greater Kurdistan. Turkey and Iran will both be concerned that a Kurdish controlled Kirkuk will give the Kurds the wealth needed to wage a war for a greater Kurdistan. 

However, under years of American and British protection, and the resulting autonomy, the Kurds of northern Iraq have worked steadily toward a Kurdish homeland. They are determined to make the dream of a greater Kurdistan a reality and any such state must include Kirkuk and its oil fields. The stage is thus set for a major confrontation in Kirkuk over the wealth of Iraq. Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Turkmen of Iraq are about to rendezvous with destiny in Kirkuk.

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7 Responses to Kirkuk, Oil And The Dance Of Death

  1. Shawn Bakhtiar Dargali says:

    The simple fact is that Kirkuk is and has always been part of Kurdistan. Saddam and his Tikriti Mafia, who ruled Iraq from 1968 to 2003, did everthing possible to “Arabize” this historically Kurdish city that once Mustafa Barzani called it “The Heart of Kurdistan”.

    Among the criminal campaigns waged by Iraq to detach this Kurdish city from Kurdistan was the infamous Anfal campaign which led to the destruction of 5,000 Kurdish villages & towns in Kurdistan, the gassing of Halbja, and the murder of 182,000 Kurds of Kirkuk.

    The mahdi gang will not scare Kurds off from Kurds. The Kurdish people will never give up Kirkuk which is as Kurdish as Washington D.C is an American city.

    Arabs have a choice in Iraq: either a democratic federal tolerant state of Iraq that includes a federal Kurdistan with Kirkuk as its capital or Iraq must be divided between Arabs & Kurds. The latter will be a democratic one.
    God bless America & Kurdistan

  2. Mash says:

    Shawn, thank you for commenting. I have a number of questions and would love to hear your feedback:

    – Do you and most Kurds identify more as Iraqis or Kurds?

    – Do you envision a future Kurdish state to include parts of Turkey and Iran or do you see Kurdistan as contained within the borders of present day Iraq? Do you have a sense of how Turkey and Iran might act in the event of a partition in Iraq? I know that Turkey has historically oppressed its Kurdish population – will a neighboring Kurdish state lead to Turkish intervention?

    – If a federal system is possible in Iraq, how do you envision the oil revenue in Kirkuk will be shared? Or do you envision the revenue remaining in Kurdistan?

    – What will become of the Turkmen that were also persecuted by Saddam in Kirkuk? My sense is that a lot of the Turkmen have allied themselves with the Arabs? Is that correct?

    I hope you will get a chance to see my comments and take the time to respond. From here, detached as we are, this seems like a very difficult issue to resolve especially since there is a history of persecution and ethnic cleansing. I know from my experience (Bangladesh in 1971), the continued persecution of an ethnic group (Bengalis) led to an independent state. I wonder if that is the path Iraq is headed and how the region, particularly Turkey, will cope with it.

    Thanks and I look forward to your response.

  3. Ingrid says:

    The quest of Kurdish autonomy has been around for so long, or otherwise put, the displacement of the Kurds have been around for so long,I think it shows that those passionate, strong sentiments will make that happen. I have no faith in either the Shia or Sunnis in Iraq to desire for a peaceful outcome in the long run. too much sectarianism even between themselves. I think it actually might be a good thing to have an independent and wealthy and stable Kurdistan in that region. It could be a good example of what true nationalism and independence means to the Arabs around them. Good luck and at the same time, I will feel saddened for the blood loss to come… wish it did not have to be this way..
    Ingrid

  4. Shawb Bakhtiar Dargali says:

    Mash, thanks for your comments, interests, and questions regarding the sacred cause of Kurdistan. Kurds and Americans have alot in common, chief among them they both share their solid commitment for freedom, democracy, fighting terror.

    The seven to eight million Iraqi Kurds reside in an area of “Iraq” that has historically and geographically been part of the greater Kurdistan. The size of France, Kurdistan also encompasses parts of Turkey, Iran, and Syria. Iraqi Kurdistan was the made part of Iraq in 1920. In Kurdish eyes, that illegal annexation of a part of Kurdish homeland to an Arab state continues to be one of history’s cruelest injustices.

    The history of the Kurdish nation is one of a series of sad chapters involving oppression, ethnic cleansing, and genocidal wars. Oppressors of Kurdistan have spared no effort in trying—often by force—to assimilate the Kurds into Arabs, Turks, or Persians. In the 1980s, Saddam Hussein, going several steps further, began killing Kurds en mass, destroying also thousands of their villages in a campaign of ethnic cleansing he called Anfal, after a verse from the Koran. And while the world was still turning a blind eye, he gassed Halabja.

    Following the 1990 Gulf War, the west finally, though reluctantly, did come to the aid of the Kurds. Parts of Iraqi Kurdistan were made no fly zones. Elections were held, and democracy slowly began to take root.

    For that, the Kurds are grateful to America, despite their being betrayed, more than once, by Washington. During Operation Iraqi freedom, Kurds fought and died alongside their American comrades. The first seeds of liberty were thus planted. But today liberty in Iraq is under threat, both from the Shiite majority and from the Sunni minority. Neither Arab side is willing to accept the Kurds as a distinct nation having the right to make their own choices.

    Kurdish participation in the elections was ver 85%. The Kurds do not want American to fail in its effort to bring democracy to Iraq. But America should not take the Kurds for granted. America must back their demand for a political structure in Iraq that will safeguard their freedoms. The Kurds want this structure to be based on the principles of democracy, federalism, and the recognition that any union between the Arab majority and the Kurdish minority is voluntary.

    The Kurds also believe that in a post-election Iraq tension between the Kurds and the Shiites are inevitable. Civil war is a real possibility. That’s why the Kurds believe the best solution for Iraq is a three-state solution: one for the Kurds, one for the Sunni Arabs, and one for the Shiite Arabs. Iraq is already a fractured country, and there is no way that it can be made whole again.

    The emergence of a Kurdish state in Iraq will be beneficial to America, morally and strategically. Thomas Jefferson was a source of inspiration for our late leader Mustafa Barzani. A Kurdish state, with Kirkuk as her capital, will provide America with a reliable friend in a tough and strategically important neighborhood.

    to be specific on your questions here are the replies.

    1) The Kurds consider themselves as Kurds first, second, and third. They are “Iraqis” becuse they have to be Iraqis. The 1921 annexation of Southren Kurdistan to Iraq has brought Kurds nothing but rivers of tears of sadness & misery. How can Kurds be happy being ruled Iraqis when been slaved by Iraq. A part of Kurdistan is free becuse the West has helped them

    2) We realize that a Kurdish state over the whole occuped Kurdistan now run by Iaq, Iran, and Turkey is not realistic now. 20 years frpm now thigs might be different. The reunification of all parts of Kurdistan seems as unrealistic as reunification of Germany was in 80’s. For now An Inependent Kurdish state in the Iraqi part of Kurdistan is most welcomed & needed.

    3) In federal system Kirkuk’s oil is for Kurdistan and not for terror triangle.

    4) The Turkmen of Kirkuk are a minority. They have a much better chance with Kurds than being allied with fanatic mullas like Sader.

    5)An independent Kurdistan will be a source of freedom, stabilty, and interest. West & Kurds have alot in common. May God bless America & Kurdistan.

  5. Mash says:

    Shawb, thanks for your responses. I was out most of the day and was unable to get back to you sooner.

    You are a worthy spokesman for the Kurdish cause. You make your case with passion and understanding.

    I also fear that civil war is a possibility (or perhaps a war of independence from the Kurdish point of view). I do acutely understand the troubles caused by the arbitrary creation of nation-states in some parts of the world (East-West Pakistan being my own experience). I do hope there is a peaceful resolution to this, although, my sense is that a civil war seems almost inevitable at this point.

    I thank you for reading my posts and I hope you will be back to read more.

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