Update 11:00PM: As polls close in Oregon, NBC News calls the race for Barack Obama. We wait for the mail-in primary ballots to be counted to find out what the margin will be.
Update 10:10PM: Hillary Clinton has thumped Barack Obama in Kentucky 65% to 30% with huge turnout in the Bluegrass state, but unforunately for her, even in losing Kentucky Barack Obama has now acheived a majority of pledged delegates. In an irony of ironies, Kentucky has clinched the Democratic nomination for Barack Obama. Oregon polls close at 11PM. Obama will gain even more delegates there.
The polls close in a few hours in Kentucky and the mail-in votes in Oregon will start reporting at 11PM Eastern time tonight. I usually post these earlier but I couldn’t find the time.
Tonight Barack Obama will earn enough delegates to get a majority of pledged delegates and pretty much seal the deal for the Democratic nomination. Kentucky offers Hillary Clinton one last chance to win an overwhelming victory in a state. But the larger narrative today will be Barack Obama reaching the pledged delegate majority milestone.
Kentucky has similar demographics as West Virginia, though parts of the state are much less rural. So Clinton is expected to walk away with Kentucky. She has been campaigning heavily there, but has not been able to move the polls much. Obama has pretty much conceded Kentucky. But Oregon looks very much like Obama country.
Pollster.com consensus in Kentucky is that it will be another blowout win for Hillary Clinton. They have Clinton winning 62.2% to 28%. This translates to a 69% to 31% win for Clinton without factoring in votes for John Edwards. I believe it will be closer. Unlike in West Virginia, Obama should do well in urban areas like Louisville. There are some counties with large pool of Democratic voters, such as Jefferson, Fayette and Franklin, that Obama has a chance to win. I expect turnout to be around 275,000 and Clinton to win 60% to 40%. Clinton will get about 55,000 more votes out of Kentucky than Obama if those turnout numbers hold.
Pollster.com consensus in Oregon is Obama 54.1% to Clinton 41.6%. That translates to a 56.5% to 43.5% win for Obama in Oregon. I expect Obama to outperform in Oregon if the rally last weekend is any indication. My prediction for Oregon is Obama 61.5% to 38.5%. I expect turnout to be around 550,000. Obama will get about 126,000 more votes out of Oregon than Clinton.
