Barack Obama needs approximately 15 super delegates to win the Democratic nomination. With today’s results in Kentucky and Oregon Barack Obama has 1961 total delegates according to DemConWatch. There are still 17 more delegates outstanding from Oregon according to CNN’s count. Obama will probably get 10 of those when all the counting is done. He then needs another 54 delegates to reach 2025 delegates required to become the nominee.
There are 86 remaining pledged delegates to distribute in the upcoming three primaries: 55 in Puerto Rico, 16 in Montana, and 15 in South Dakota. Obama will likely pick up 22 delegates in Puerto Rico, 9 delegates in Montana, and 8 delegates in South Dakota. That will leave him 15 delegates shy of the nomination. Those 15 will come from remaining super delegates.
Lately Obama has been picking up up to 5 super delegates a day. At that rate he would need a little over 3 days to get the 15 super delegates. However, since he has acquired the majority of pledged delegates today, it is not unreasonable to expect that super delegates who have been waiting for him to get the pledged delegate majority will now quickly move to Obama’s corner. There is no reason now for the undeclared super delegates to not declare their support tomorrow.
So, watch to see which super delegates make up these last 15 super delegates whose votes will really matter. Those who continue to wait on the sidelines will likely find their influence diminished. So, which super delegates will step up and be counted tomorrow?