2006 Virginia US Senate County-by-County Results (Webb – blue; Allen – red)
Barack Obama is now leading John McCain in Virginia, according to 2 new polls released today. Obama leads McCain 51% to 45% in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Obama leads McCain 49% to 46% in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Perennially red Virginia is now within reach for Barack Obama. On November 4th, if Barack Obama wins Virginia he will have won the presidency.
Powered by the strength of strong support in Northern Virginia, in Richmond, and in the Tidewater region in the Southeast, Obama is poised to do what no other Democrat has done since 1964.
Barack Obama is polling very similar to how Jim Webb won his senate seat in 2006. The map is very similar to 2006. However, the demographics in Northern Virginia and Richmond are even more favorable to Democrats this year. The college educated liberal Northern Virginia suburbs have expanded outward into what were more rural counties surrounding the Washington DC suburbs. Once conservative Loudoun County – one of the outer suburbs of Washington DC – , which was primarily rural just a few years ago, has seen dramatic growth in the last 2 years. Similarly, Prince William County – home to the battlefields of Bull Run – has seen rapid growth as the Washington DC suburbs have grown outwards thanks partly to George W Bush’s deregulated push toward the so-called ownership society. The city of Richmond, with its large African American voter base, promises to come out strongly for Barack Obama.
In 2006, Jim Webb beat George Allen by winning the key regions of the state, including its population centers:
- He won Northern Virginia 60% to 40%
- He won the Southeast 53% to 47%
- He lost the East (which includes Richmond) 45% to 55%
- He lost the rural West/Shenandoah region 43% to 57%
Looking at the SurveyUSA crosstabs, Obama is polling in the regions as follows:
- Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 38%
- Obama is winning the Southeast 53% to 43%
- Obama is winning the East (including Richmond) 49% to 45%
- Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 40% to 54%
The ABC News/Washington Post crosstabs show the following:
- Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 35%
- Obama is winning the Southeast 50% to 45%
- Obama is losing the East (including Richmond) 45% to 50%
- Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 39% to 57%
Obama’s map to victory in Virginia looks remarkably similar to Jim Webb’s in 2006.
The voter distribution in the 2006 election was 27% from Northern Virginia, 19% from the Southeast, 36% from the East, and 19% from the rural West. Just like 2006, Virginia will be decided by voter turnout in Northern Virginia counties of Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun, in Richmond, and in Tidewater cities of Norfolk and Newport News. John McCain will win the rural Southeast handily, but there are simply not enough voters there to counter Barack Obama’s advantage in the population centers.
Northern Virginia is energized and surging for Obama. My conversations with Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia bode well for Obama. Many undecideds were swayed to Obama by McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin may have energized the Republican base in deep red states, but here in Virginia McCain lost the moderates with his gimmick.
Obama’s ground game here in Northern Virginia is in full swing. Every day Obama volunteers are going door to door registering voters ahead of the registration deadline in October. There are community get togethers, planning meetings, and minority outreach (with no sign of George "macaca" Allen) every weekend. All this energy should translate into a large voter turnout on election day. If the polls hold Obama will carry Northern Virginia with 60% of the vote and flip Virginia from red to blue.
Virginia voters never really matter in presidential elections. All that of course has changed this year. The Old Dominion is looking forward to making history in November.
