Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

An Eliza program is a computer program that provides responses to questions by rephasing the question. The answers are nonresponsive, but just enough to make it seem like there may be artificial intelligence there. If you ever took  a Lisp programming course in college, you probably have written an Eliza program. Usually the programmer will give the Eliza program a personality. For example, you could write an Eliza program to be an annoying room mate, or you could write an Eliza program to behave like an unprepared vice presidential candidate.

Sarah Palin was interviewed tonight by Katie Couric. She didn’t help herself or John McCain. Earlier today, she had an awkward moment while trying to hobnob with foreign leaders.

Here is a partial transcript of the disaster (interview) with Katie Couric:

Couric: You’ve said, quote, "John McCain will reform the way Wall Street does business." Other than supporting stricter regulations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two years ago, can you give us any more example of his leading the charge for more oversight?

Palin: I think that the example that you just cited, with his warnings two years ago about Fannie and Freddie – that, that’s paramount. That’s more than a heck of a lot of other senators and representatives did for us.

Couric: But he’s been in Congress for 26 years. He’s been chairman of the powerful Commerce Committee. And he has almost always sided with less regulation, not more.

Palin: He’s also known as the maverick though, taking shots from his own party, and certainly taking shots from the other party. Trying to get people to understand what he’s been talking about – the need to reform government.

Couric: But can you give me any other concrete examples? Because I know you’ve said Barack Obama is a lot of talk and no action. Can you give me any other examples in his 26 years of John McCain truly taking a stand on this?

Palin: I can give you examples of things that John McCain has done, that has shown his foresight, his pragmatism, and his leadership abilities. And that is what America needs today.

Couric: I’m just going to ask you one more time – not to belabor the point. Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation.

Palin: I’ll try to find you some and I’ll bring them to you.

Now, there is news that John McCain is taking his marbles and going home because he wants to cancel the vice presidential debate. Do you think they are afraid to let her debate? Do you think that is why John McCain pulled his latest stunt? If you are like me, you probably are embarrassed to see a major party presidential campaign descend into such farce. This is embarrassing for our country and embarrassing for democracy.

On the heels of a previous report that Rick Davis, John McCain’s campaign manager, took $2 million from the mortgage giant, The New York Times reports tonight that  Rick Davis was paid an additional $15,000 per month, up until last month, by Freddie Mac for access to John McCain:

One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.

The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.

Mr. Davis’s firm received the payments from the company, Freddie Mac, until it was taken over by the government this month along with Fannie Mae, the other big mortgage lender whose deteriorating finances helped precipitate the cascading problems on Wall Street, the people said.

They said they did not recall Mr. Davis’s doing much substantive work for the company in return for the money, other than speak to a political action committee of high-ranking employees in October 2006 on the approaching midterm Congressional elections. They said Mr. Davis’s firm, Davis & Manafort, had been kept on the payroll because of Mr. Davis’s close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House.

Newsweek also follows up on the Rick Davis all access pass to John McCain:

Since 2006, the federally sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac has paid at least $345,000 to the lobbying and consulting firm of John McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis, according to two sources familiar with the arrangement.

Freddie Mac had previously paid an advocacy group run by Davis, called the Homeownership Alliance, $30,000 a month until the end 2005, when that group was dissolved. That relationship was the subject of a New York Times story Monday, which drew angry denunciations from the McCain campaign. McCain and his aides have vehemently objected to suggestions that Davis has ties to Freddie Mac—an especially sensitive issue given that the Republican presidential candidate has blamed "the lobbyists, politicians and bureaucrats" for the mortgage crisis that recently prompted the Bush administration to take over both Freddie Mac and its companion, Fannie Mae, and put them under federal conservatorship.

But neither the Times story—nor the McCain campaign—revealed that Davis’s lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, based in Washington, D.C., continued to receive $15,000 a month from Freddie Mac until last month—long after the Homeownership Alliance had been terminated. The two sources, who requested anonymity discussing sensitive information, told NEWSWEEK that Davis himself approached Freddie Mac in 2006 and asked for a new consulting arrangement that would allow his firm to continue to be paid. The arrangement was approved by Hollis McLoughlin, Freddie Mac’s senior vice president for external relations, because "he [Davis] was John McCain’s campaign manager and it was felt you couldn’t say no," said one of the sources. [McLoughlin did not return phone calls].

When asked about his own campaign manager’s associations with the mortgage giants, McCain, in an interview with CNBC Sunday night, said that Davis "has had nothing to do" with the Homeownship Alliance since it disbanded and "I’ll be glad to have his record examined by anybody who wants to look at it." (The Homeownership Alliance was set up and funded by both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to promote the goal of home ownership and counter efforts to impose tighter regulations on the two federally sponsored entities.)

Davis, in a conference call arranged by the McCain campaign on Monday, said "it’s been over three years since there’s been any activity in this area and since I had any contact with those folks." Davis also said he "had a severed leave of absence" from his lobbying and consulting firm, and "I’ve taken no compensation from my firm for 18 months." (A campaign spokesman said that Davis receives no partnership distribution under his arrangement).

This news comes after John McCain denied over the weekend that his campaign manager had any recent links to Freddie Mac.

It is now becoming clear who John McCain will represent if he is elected president.

2006 Virginia US Senate County-by-County Results (Webb – blue; Allen – red)

Barack Obama is now leading John McCain in Virginia, according to 2 new polls released today. Obama leads McCain 51% to 45% in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Obama leads McCain 49% to 46% in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Perennially red Virginia is now within reach for Barack Obama. On November 4th, if Barack Obama wins Virginia he will have won the presidency.

Powered by the strength of strong support in Northern Virginia, in Richmond, and in the Tidewater region in the Southeast, Obama is poised to do what no other Democrat has done since 1964.

Barack Obama is polling very similar to how Jim Webb won his senate seat in 2006. The map is very similar to 2006. However, the demographics in Northern Virginia and Richmond are even more favorable to Democrats this year. The college educated liberal Northern Virginia suburbs have expanded outward into what were more rural counties surrounding the Washington DC suburbs. Once conservative Loudoun County – one of the outer suburbs of Washington DC – , which was primarily rural just a few years ago, has seen dramatic growth in the last 2 years. Similarly, Prince William County – home to the battlefields of Bull Run – has seen rapid growth as the Washington DC suburbs have grown outwards thanks partly to George W Bush’s deregulated push toward the so-called ownership society. The city of Richmond, with its large African American voter base, promises to come out strongly for Barack Obama.

In 2006, Jim Webb beat George Allen by winning the key regions of the state, including its population centers:

• He won Northern Virginia 60% to 40%
• He won the Southeast 53% to 47%
• He lost the East (which includes Richmond) 45% to 55%
• He lost the rural West/Shenandoah region 43% to 57%

Looking at the SurveyUSA crosstabs, Obama is polling in the regions as follows:

• Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 38%
• Obama is winning the Southeast 53% to 43%
• Obama is winning the East (including Richmond) 49% to 45%
• Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 40% to 54%

The ABC News/Washington Post crosstabs show the following:

• Obama is winning Northern Virginia 59% to 35%
• Obama is winning the Southeast 50% to 45%
• Obama is losing the East (including Richmond) 45% to 50%
• Obama is losing the rural West/Shenandoah 39% to 57%

Obama’s map to victory in Virginia looks remarkably similar to Jim Webb’s in 2006.

The voter distribution in the 2006 election was 27% from Northern Virginia, 19% from the Southeast, 36% from the East, and 19% from the rural West. Just like 2006, Virginia will be decided by voter turnout in Northern Virginia counties of Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun, in Richmond, and in Tidewater cities of Norfolk and Newport News. John McCain will win the rural Southeast handily, but there are simply not enough voters there to counter Barack Obama’s advantage in the population centers.

Northern Virginia is energized and surging for Obama. My conversations with Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia bode well for Obama. Many undecideds were swayed to Obama by McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin may have energized the Republican base in deep red states, but here in Virginia McCain lost the moderates with his gimmick.

Obama’s ground game here in Northern Virginia is in full swing. Every day Obama volunteers are going door to door registering voters ahead of the registration deadline in October. There are community get togethers, planning meetings, and minority outreach (with no sign of George "macaca" Allen) every weekend. All this energy should translate into a large voter turnout on election day. If the polls hold Obama will carry Northern Virginia with 60% of the vote and flip Virginia from red to blue.

Virginia voters never really matter in presidential elections. All that of course has changed this year. The Old Dominion is looking forward to making history in November.