Predicting Kentucky And Oregon

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Mash

Update 11:00PM: As polls close in Oregon, NBC News calls the race for Barack Obama. We wait for the mail-in primary ballots to be counted to find out what the margin will be.

Update 10:10PM: Hillary Clinton has thumped Barack Obama in Kentucky 65% to 30% with huge turnout in the Bluegrass state, but unforunately for her, even in losing Kentucky Barack Obama has now acheived a majority of pledged delegates. In an irony of ironies, Kentucky has clinched the Democratic nomination for Barack Obama. Oregon polls close at 11PM. Obama will gain even more delegates there.

The polls close in a few hours in Kentucky and the mail-in votes in Oregon will start reporting at 11PM Eastern time tonight. I usually post these earlier but I couldn’t find the time.

Tonight Barack Obama will earn enough delegates to get a majority of pledged delegates and pretty much seal the deal for the Democratic nomination. Kentucky offers Hillary Clinton one last chance to win an overwhelming victory in a state. But the larger narrative today will be Barack Obama reaching the pledged delegate majority milestone.

Kentucky has similar demographics as West Virginia, though parts of the state are much less rural. So Clinton is expected to walk away with Kentucky. She has been campaigning heavily there, but has not been able to move the polls much. Obama has pretty much conceded Kentucky. But Oregon looks very much like Obama country.

Pollster.com consensus in Kentucky is that it will be another blowout win for Hillary Clinton. They have Clinton winning 62.2% to 28%. This translates to a 69% to 31% win for Clinton without factoring in votes for John Edwards. I believe it will be closer. Unlike in West Virginia, Obama should do well in urban areas like Louisville. There are some counties with large pool of Democratic voters, such as Jefferson, Fayette and Franklin, that Obama has a chance to win. I expect turnout to be around 275,000 and Clinton to win 60% to 40%. Clinton will get about 55,000 more votes out of Kentucky than Obama if those turnout numbers hold.

Pollster.com consensus in Oregon is Obama 54.1% to Clinton 41.6%. That translates to a 56.5% to 43.5% win for Obama in Oregon. I expect Obama to outperform in Oregon if the rally last weekend is any indication. My prediction for Oregon is Obama 61.5% to 38.5%. I expect turnout to be around 550,000. Obama will get about 126,000 more votes out of Oregon than Clinton.

 

Posted in Politics | Comments Off on Predicting Kentucky And Oregon

75,000

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Mash

Barack Obama in Oregon

I didn’t want this to pass without noting that Barack Obama drew an incredible 75,000 people at a rally in Portland, Oregon yesterday. These are unprecedented numbers in a political rally in the United States. (Note to the Clinton campaign: that’s a lot of white people at that rally.) Oregon and Kentucky vote tomorrow.

The news from the rally reached all the way around the world. Here is The Age from Down Under:

IF EVER there was a surer sign that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is over, it came on a sunny day in a waterfront park in Oregon.

After last Tuesday’s primary in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton had struggled to round up more than a few hundred people for her victory party in a dingy civic centre.

On Sunday, frontrunner Barack Obama packed a record 75,000 crowd into the Waterfront Park in downtown Portland.

On an unseasonably sunny afternoon, it could not have been a more joyous affair. Pleasure craft bobbed in the river and people covered the undulating banks as far as the eye could see, delivering for Senator Obama his biggest rally yet.

Senator Obama, in shirt sleeves, entered to thunderous cheers accompanied by what could soon be the US first family. The gangly eight-year-old, in a lemon sundress, stood close to her father while her six-year-old sister, carried by Michelle, buried her face in her mother’s neck at the sight of the crowd.

Even the candidate seemed a little overawed. "Hello Portland. Wow! Wow! Wow!" he said as he surveyed the sea of people. "I have had a lot of rallies but nothing has been in such a spectacular setting and it doesn’t hurt that it’s a perfect day," he said to wild cheers.

Yes We Can.

Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

“F*** yeah”: Worse Than Abu Ghraib

Posted on May 17, 2008 by Mash

They scrawled the words "Fuck yeah" on the pages of the Holy Koran and then they shot it full of holes. Last week a few American soldiers in Iraq thought it would be cool to use the Koran for target practice. The US commander on the ground, Major General Jeffery Hammond, has quickly apologized to try to repair the damage. I hope it will be enough, but I seriously doubt that fallout from this act of stupidity by a few soldiers can be contained.

I am a Muslim. I am an American. I am deeply offended. Those who know me know that I am not easily offended in these matters.

Muslims consider the words in the Koran to be the literal word of God. Korans in Muslim homes are kept in a place of honor, usually displayed on a stand made to hold the book on a mantle or another prominent place. Muslims consider it a grave insult if the Koran comes into contact with one’s feet or is desecrated in any other way. Every Muslim understands this. It is instinctive to protect the Koran.

So when an American soldier desecrates a Koran and riddles it with bullets, the message is clear: it does not need any translation. This isn’t the "cartoon controversy" where a bunch of radical Islamists thumped their chests in response. This will hit home with the moderate Muslims around the world. Moderate Muslims are not going to go out on the streets and march in protest. But they will understand the message coming from America. At a time when America needs the moderates in the Muslim world to rally to the cause and isolate the extremists, this kind of act will cause the moderates to sit on their hands.  I doubt very many Muslims around the world will care to make the distinction between the act of a few American soldiers and the policy of the United States. That kind of nuance is likely not going to translate well.

This kind of action is a victory for the hatemongers on both sides. It makes my conversations with Muslims in the country of my birth – Bangladesh – that much more difficult. I will trot out the standard line about how this was an act of a few and does not represent the attitude of the United States government toward the Muslims of the world. I will get a polite hearing, but I doubt anyone will believe me. Already I am confronted with Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay when I speak out against human rights violations in the Muslim world. At least in those cases I can make the admittedly weak case that those abuses were carried out in the overzealous response to terrorists acts – that those acts were targetted at who the United States thought posed a security threat to itself. In this case, however, there is no getting around the fact that the target is the over one billion Muslims around the world.

I am not so worried that this particular act will increase the level of terrorism against the United States. Those who would act in violence don’t particularly need this as an excuse to do their acts – if it wasn’t this, they would find another justification. But I do worry that the long-term goal of winning "hearts and minds" just took a major blow. I don’t know how many more such blows can be absorbed before the divide between the Muslim world and the West is irretrievably made permanent.

Those of us who stand with a foot in each culture have a responsibility to try the bridge the gaps of misunderstanding and mutual fear that have hightened since the September 11th attacks. But our voices are drowned out, along with the voices of the majority of those in the West and in the Muslim world who simply want to live in peace to raise their families, when this kind of act is carried out by a "strategic corporal" . This must stop.

UPDATE:  I crossposted this on Daily Kos last night. It has reached the recommended list and launched a vigorous debate in the comments. Now there are over 700 comments on the post and the debate continues. The diary has elicited strong opinions on all sides and quite a lot of insightful commentary.

Posted in Foreign Policy, Iraq, Islam, Personal | 13 Comments

Senator Edward Kennedy Hospitalized

Posted on May 17, 2008 by Mash

Senator Edward Kennedy

Senator Edward Kennedy, the Liberal Lion of the Senate,  was rushed to the hospital this morning with a suspected stroke. CNN is now reporting that it may have been a siezure rather than a stroke. Everyone is cautiously optimistic.

As many of you who know, I have great respect for Senator Kennedy and am grateful for his courageous stand in support of the Bengali people in 1971. He has served the world and the liberal cause with distinction throughout his decades long career. He has probably made more difference in more people’s lives than any other legislator in our lifetime.

I wish him a speedy recovery and many more years of good health. My thoughts and prayers are with the Senator and his family.

 

 

Posted in Personal, Politics | 2 Comments

Behold The American Right-Wing

Posted on May 15, 2008 by Mash

A P P E A S E M E N T – This morning I appeased my car by driving it. What and who did you appease today?

If you missed it, this morning the village idiot was in Israel saving the world from the Nazis again.

 

Posted in Foreign Policy, Politics | 4 Comments