Mon Feb 11 2008 12:40 am
After this weekend’s impressive wins in every state (and the Virgin Islands) that held a primary or caucus, Barack Obama is riding a wave of momentum while Hillary Clinton’s campaign appears to be in disarray. After today’s big win for Obama in Maine (where Obama was behind in the polls), the Clinton campaign stole the headlines - but not in a good way. The Clinton campaign announced tonight that its campaign manager had been replaced.
To date, Barack Obama has won 19 states to Hillary Clinton’s 10. Increasingly the map appears to be filling in for Obama. He is also now ahead in the number of pledged delegates. With a fundraising edge and rising in the polls, Barack Obama heads to the Beltway Primaries this Tuesday when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will hold their primaries. Obama is expected to handily carry both Maryland and DC.
Virginia is considered the state where Clinton may be able to slow Obama’s momentum. However, a series of polls over the last few days show Obama with significant leads in Virginia. The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Obama up by 16 points (Obama 53%, Clinton 37%). The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 18 points (Obama 55%, Clinton 37%). The latest SurveyUSA poll has Obama ahead by 20 points (Obama 59%, Clinton 39%). A poll taken by InsidersAdvantage also shows Obama with a 15 point lead (Obama 52%, Clinton 37%).
The numbers inside the polls also show Obama with significant advantages in Virginia. Both the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls show that Obama is even with Clinton amongst white voters in Virginia, while the Mason-Dixon poll shows Clinton leading amongst white voters (there is no demographic breakdowns in the InsidersAdvantage poll). All polls have Obama leading by wide margins amongst Black voters in Virginia. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama leads amongst men and women, and all age groups except those over 65. Clinton still leads Obama amongst Hispanics, although the margin is shrinking. The SurveyUSA poll also shows Obama winning in every region of Virginia except the rural Shanandoahs to the Southwest. If the polls hold up, Obama is headed for a big win in Virginia this Tuesday.
If Obama takes the three primaries this Tuesday and wins the remainder of the contests in February, as he is likely to do, Hillary Clinton’s campaign will be reeling by the time the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio are held. Although the most recent polls show Clinton ahead in Ohio and Texas, both states are likely to tighten by the end of this month. With a bigger war chest and the momentum Obama will continue to gain in the polls. If he wins throughout February it is quite likely Ohio will move into the Obama column (a la Missouri). The Clinton campaign is now hoping to survive until March 4th and hold the line in Ohio and Texas. But as Rudy Giuliani’s experience in Florida showed, a string of losses can be debilitating. The early leads in the polls tend to evaporate as the other candidate keeps racking up wins.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign relied very much on the air of inevitability. She was supposed to have the Democratic nomination sewn up by Super Tuesday. However, that inevitability was demolished by Obama’s strong showing last week. Now it is a horserace in which Barack Obama caught up and is now pulling away. The conventional wisdom is that the race is so close that it may go all the way to the Democratic National Convention. However, a long string of losses for Hillary Clinton in February will drastically change the media buzz. Tuesday night, if Barack Obama has a big night (and that means winning Virginia), the headlines about the "neck and neck" race will suddenly change. The money may then begin to dry up and the superdelegates may start to move toward the frontrunner. If that happens this race is over.
barack obama
democratic party elections hillary clinton virginia 8 Responses to “All Eyes On Virginia”
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February 11th, 2008 at 4:00 am
The best Presidency in the history of the United States of America for the working man and woman was during the Clinton years. Nobody disputes that! The biggest states which are neccessary to win the Presidential election are California and New York, which Hillary Clinton beat the pants off of Barack Obama. Nobody disputes that! Obama is for change. Nobody disputes that! Obama may be better or worse than Bush. Nobody disputes that. Obama may not beat McCain in California and New York! Nobody disputes that. Hillary Clinton has a history of making America better and winning in California and New York! Why in the name of God would anyone take a chance on Obama with the future of the greatest nation on earth at stake!!!!!!
February 11th, 2008 at 4:32 am
I am a foreigner, pay no taxes to the US government, and hence it’s not really my place to tell you how you should vote.
That said, perhaps I can still add a perspective that you guys might find relevant. I work in the capital of a small western nation with deep historical ties with your country - our troops fought alongside yours in all major wars since World War II (though hopefully our involvement in the sorry mess in Iraq will be over soon). American alliance is the bedrock of our foreign policy. And in this country, the US has a less favourable impression than China - a communist dictatorship.
And a few weeks ago, in the corridors of power in our capital, I heard this:
Obama’s the kind of president that will make it okay to be pro-American again.
It is your election, and my voice shouldn’t matter - no representation without taxation, you see. But then, your choice does affect the rest of the world. And there are many other parts of the world who will not be as admiring of your great republic as we are in our small democracy. When you decide between Obama and Clinton, perhaps you could ask yourself - who will make the rest of the world see America the way you see your country?
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
I am a young black student and I have noticed a great deal of bias and disillusion in this democratic presidential race. Many people claim that Sen. Barack Obama is not running based on race. I say these people are blinded by the skin color of this talented man. Perhaps they have this hope that electing a black man will dissolve all of the inequality and maltreatment that has unfortunately pervaded this country for century. Who knows. But I will say that if, 80% of any one race is voting for a specific candidate, that candidate has been nominated based on racial lines, i.e. SC, GA, etc. Early in the primaries, the senator himself acknowledged that his race is important, e.g., speeches he has made declaring his pride for being the first African American to reach so far in a presidential race. His wife has also made some racially motivated comments: “Aint no black people in Iowa.” His platform is change, which I might add is common to all the democratic candidates, although I still have not heard ANY concrete plan that originated with him (and not Edwards/Clinton). People should look at policy and not vague yet eloquent evocations of change, hope, and togetherness. So far in this campaign, whether supporters want to admit it, change really equals black.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Obama has won all five states which are Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and Maine and was even the projected winner of the virgin islands from this weekend which has yet to be updated on your table…Obama has won over half of all the state that have voted and in most national polls he is now leading, from online polls Obama has been projected to win the rest of the states by large margins and even with them having large error percents there’s no way the for Texas and Ohio the error percent can be thirty percent. Even though the national polls are close, the national poll of the question “who will be a best chance against Mccain?” Obama clearly wins. lets face it Mccain is going to win the republican nom., and the only thing that Hilary has going for her is her name which to most is gold, and the 90’s but this isn’t the 90’s it isn’t even close the way I see it is Hilary needs to drop out for the good of the party and before the Clinton name gets damaged even more by their politic. Obama can and would bet Mccain and just like Huckabee, Hilary is only in this race for herself and not the country.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
We launched some new social communities for the presidential candidates. We thought it would be fun to see how quickly they can grow and what people think. Check them out:
mccain.myfreedomforum.com
clinton.myfreedomforum.com
obama.myfreedomforum.com
They are brand new so be among the first to join and let’s see what happens.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Obama is candidate for change and real change, a change in the century old trend. First of all, for centuries, America had all always a white president and before civil right movement of Martin Luther King II, everybody knows how was the ignominiable social situation in America, the country, after the success of civil right movement, for decades called a country of a great nation.
But I believe and see many things here that should not prevalent in a country of great nation. We look at America as a symbol of all great attributes like democracy, freedom of speec, individual liberty, religious freedom and non-discrimination based on so many denominations. Glaring example as of now having a black president. It’s shame for America that wants to sell those best attributes to other countries while America per se practic fully those idealism.
I don’t know who being sensible and civil would be dubbed as occupier. But America was not shy to fight in the UNO, for this occupier-insignia on the nation’s vest after the fall of Saddam regime in Iraq. They bragged claim, and fight with other countries for this id for getting recognition of the credit for winning the war against Saddam the control and all the contracts for reconstructions in Iraq. Not having a black president in centuries, waging war snubbing the global opinions and ignoring the devastating consequences and human calamities of war all are negative things, for which America still falls short of justing the claim the best nation of the world. No doubt, America is militarily the most powerful nation and the most wealthy country.
America can very easily be the best nation on the earth and for that now a change in the trend which be achieved through electing Obama as the president. America get rid of the stigma they have and that they don’t see. Specially after Iraq war and Bush’s presidency American global image has been phenomenally tarnished. And only Obama, not the can salvage that lost image and as Hillary was the Bush’s partner of the worst dicision of pre-emptive war.
Now the America is at the beginning of economic recession. The major cause of this economic disaster is the war as it’s draining billions of dollars out of the country. For fixing the economy there is no alternative to stopping the war and bringing the troops back home. Obama as the president can better accomplish than other contenders like Hillary and Mccain. Obama can win the war on terrorism without blood and letting out billion of dollars. If Obama or someone like Obama is elected as the president, I believe, the Al-Quida will declare unilateral truce, once they feel the muslim world is not threatened and humiliated by war-mongering president like Bush.
Obama can bring change in America as well as in the whole world. He can be bring back America’s respect and dignity, fix economic problems, very messy healthcare system etc. He can be a catalyst to fulfill the American’s dream for everybody and help making a the world a better place to live in.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Obama is the candidate for change and real change, a change in the century-old trend. First of all, for centuries, America always had a white president and before civil-rights movement of Martin Luther King II, everybody knows how was the ignominiable social situation in America. America after the success of civil-rights movement, for decades has been called a country of a great nation as it could burried apertheidism.
But, I believe, and see, there are many things here that should not be prevalent in the country of a great nation. We look at America as a symbol of all great attributes like democracy, freedom of speech, individual liberty, religious freedom and non-discrimination based on so many denominations. Glaring example, as of now not having a black president and not a woman president. It’s shame for America that it wants to sell those best attributes to other countries while America per se hasn’t been practicing fully those aspired idealisms.
I don’t know who being sensible and civil would love to be dubbed as occupier. But America was not shy to fight in the UNO, to put this occupier-insignia on the nation’s vest after the fall of Saddam regime in Iraq. They bragged, claimed, and fought with other countries for this id for getting recognition of the credit for winning the war against Saddam aiming to grab all the control and the contracts for reconstructions in Iraq. Not having a black president in centuries, waging war snubbing the global opinion and ignoring the devastating consequences and human calamities of war are all negative things, for which America still falls short of justifying the claim the best nation of the world. No doubt, America is militarily the most powerful nation and the most wealthy country, yet lacking many things sublime to take pride in as a great nation. The getting the tactical recognition and the support of world governments and spontaneous popular support and respect are two entirely differnt meanings.
America can very easily be the best nation on the earth and lead the world. And for that now a change in the trend is badly needed and that cab be achieved through electing Obama as the president. America should and can get rid of the stigma they have and that they don’t see with the lense of president of pre-emptive doctrine. Especially, after Iraq war and Bush’s presidency American global image has been phenomenally tarnished. And only Obama, not Hillary or Mccain can salvage that lost image as Hillary and Mccain were the Bush’s partners of the worst dicision of pre-emptive war.
Now, the America is at the beginning of economic recession. The major cause of this economic disaster is the war as it’s been draining billion of dollars out of the country. For fixing the economy there is no alternative to stopping the war and bringing the troops back home. Obama as the president can accomplish the job better than other contenders like Hillary and Mccain. Obama can win the war on terrorism without letting blood of Amerian- service men and women and billion of dollars out of the country. If Obama or someone like Obama is elected as the president, I believe, Al-Quida will declare unilateral truce, once they feel the muslim world is no longer threatened and humiliated by war-mongering egoistic president like Bush.
Obama can bring change in America as well as in the whole world. He can be bring back America’s respect and dignity, fix economy, the very messed-up healthcare system etc. He can be a core catalyst to fulfill the American’s dream for everybody and help making the world a better place to live in. He can led the country onto the right track as envisaged in its forefathers’ dream.
February 12th, 2008 at 6:19 am
I want to see a President that I can believe, not someone that have to believe in.
Obama’s unwillingness to debate is disturbing. He does not want his statements held into account in the Primary within his party which is a friendlier setting than a debate in the Presidential race. He’s rather pep rally his ego all over the country and not answer questions.
As for being an agent of Change, read his home town papers, the Chicago Sun Times and the Chicago Tribune. He’s the same political type that he claims not to be.
He’s the guy who wrote a letter of support for his longtime frinend, big slum lord campaign supporter so that the supporter could build an old peoples home in Obama’s district. That wouldn’t be so bad except that Obama’s constituents were without heat for five weeks in the slum landlord’s building before the recommendation. Obama’s good “friend” also helped him make a deal for his Mansion.
I see more division coming from Obama’s support on the blogs. Ageist, sexist, and racially slanted. Get real people. One person can not make change. You don’t stratify the nation to unite it.
If you want change, the focus needs to be on everyone you choose to represent you and their ability to follow through. Involvement is not a one day event or a campaign season exersize. Monitor what is going on in Washington and hold these people accountable.
Scratch the surface, take a closer look. Obama’s not really what he says he is.