Indiana And North Carolina Predictions

It is once again time for the familiar parlor game. Tomorrow North Carolina and Indiana go to the polls. The race is no longer about delegates. Barack Obama has an insurmountable lead in elected delegates. The race is about whether Hillary Clinton can convince Democratic party insiders to steal the nomination for her. To achieve that she must destroy Barack Obama as a candidate. Tomorrow is her last chance.

So on to the predictions.

Tomorrow is all about demographics. Hillary Clinton has made this election about race, and tomorrow race will play a heavy factor.

In North Carolina Barack Obama will likely win the state. His margin depends on the percentage of African American voters. I am expecting about 38% African American turnout tomorrow. With that kind of African American turnout Obama is likely to win with a minimum of 55.2% to 44.8% or more likely 57.5% to 42.5%. Pollster.com is showing the race at Obama 49.9% to Clinton 42.2%. That translates into a 54.2% to 45.8% Obama victory in North Carolina. Looking at the internals for these polls my guess is that they are under representing the African American vote. I am going to go with the high end of my numbers and predict that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton in  North Carolina  57.5% to 42.5% – a margin of 15 points.

Indiana is a bit more complicated. There is a law in Indiana that makes automated polling illegal. This may be causing polls to be all over the map, with Zogby the outlier giving Obama a slim lead. Pollster.com is showing the race at Clinton 49.7% to Obama 43.9%. That translates into a 53.1% to 46.9% Clinton victory in Indiana. African American turnout will likely be about 12% in Indiana. The real question is what percentage of the White vote Barack Obama can garner. Most polls have him taking about 40% of the White vote and a lesser percentage of the Black vote than he is actually likely to get. If Barack Obama can take close to 45% of the White vote in Indiana he can eek out a win.

There is late momentum in Obama’s favor in Indiana. A lot will depend on turnout and how much of a memory Reverend Wright is. I suspect the gas tax has supplanted Wright as the issue that will sway late deciders. The gas tax has gotten bad press in local Indiana papers and may have ended up dove-tailing into an issue of Clinton’s truthfulness. Still pandering works in elections, but those who may be bought with this gimick- White blue collar voters – were likely already in Clinton’s camp. National polling shows that the gas tax issue plays against Clinton among independents, so I am betting that there will be late movement away from her. So, since I am in an adventurous mood I will buck the trend and predict Indiana for Obama by a hair. I predict that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton in Indiana by 50.4% to 49.6%. And tomorrow night I will once again eat my shoe 🙂

Regardless of the outcome in Indiana, tomorrow is likely not going to be the "game changer" Hilary Clinton wants and needs. If Clinton wins Indiana she will stay in the race until someone drags her off the campaign. If she loses Indiana she simply cannot convince her donors to allow her to continue.