1:14AM: MSNBC and CNN declare Indiana for Hillary Clinton after Lake county came in for Obama 55% to 45%. Obama needed around 59% in Lake county. Hillary Clinton eeked out a win with 50.9% to 40.1% wih a vote difference of 22,439 votes. In North Carolina Obama has won 56.7% to 41.9% with the rest going to presumably others (John Edwards?). Obama won North Carolina by 232,752 votes. It was a thumping tonight. Expect significant calls for her to drop out, if she doesnt bow out on her own. Expect significant super delegate movement to Obama starting tomorrow.
12:37AM: With 56% of Lake county reporting, Obama is winning the county 65% to 35%. The vote difference statewide is 16,609 in Clinton’s favor. The margin is closing fast.
12:33AM: NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her public appearances tomorrow.
12:21AM: Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her appearances tomorrow morning.
12:15AM: Gas tax. Gas tax. Gas tax.
11:48PM: Lake county has started to come in. With 28% of Lake county reporting Clinton’s lead just got cut in half. Obama is winning Lake county now 75% to 25% with the early votes coming from Gary, where Obama is heavily favored. Currently Clinton leads 51% to 49%. The vote difference now is 19,790. This is a nail biter.
11:41PM: Everyone is waiting for Lake county in Indiana to report. In North Carolina Barack Obama won in a landslide. Currently with 98% reporting, Obama leads 56% to 42%. He is leading by more than 220,000 votes – that is a bigger number of votes than Clinton won Pennsylvania by. Barack Obama has erased Clinton’s gains in Pennsylvania and then gained some more tonight. North Carolina was devestating to Clinton. And a close result in Indiana was the game changer. Its game over for Hillary Clinton.
11:35PM: I forgot to mute Lanny Davis when he popped up again on CNN. Lanny said he is "happy" with these results. Then he went completely delusional and almost started to cry. The whole time he had this crazy grin on his face. I am now worried that the man is coming unhinged. Someone please take him home. CNN should not waste airtime with this hack.
11:06PM: According to Tim Russert, there are about 220,000 votes left in Obama strongholds in Indiana. The vote difference is about 39,000 right now. That means Obama would have to win just under 59% of the remaining votes. To put this in perspective, Obama carried Marion county with 67% of the vote. The question is whether he can muster that kind of a margin in Lake county which is yet to report. At this point, it could go either way.
10:55PM: Hillary Clinton is speaking in Indiana. She is declaring victory and says she will keep fighting. She is perhaps giving the worst speech of her long campaign. She is rambling. This was not the moment for this speech. She is going down in a sad and pathetic way, instead of going down with grace. Its quite sad. Bill Clinton, standing behind her, cannot hide his disappointment.
10:32PM: While we wait for Indiana to come in, please donate to Barack Obama and fuel his people-powered campaign. Last night the Obama campaign hit their astounding goal of 1.5 million donors. Help push that number up further. After tonight’s victory he and the American people deserve it.
10:00PM: New Rule: James Carville and Lanny Davis must from now on be shunned. I pledge to put the TV on mute everytime these hacks pop up on screen. In the meantime, Indiana remains a 4 point race with 79% reporting. NBC News still has it "too close to call". The sound you hear is the low spark of super delegates making their way toward Barack Obama.
9:36PM: With 73% reporting in Indiana the margin is now Clinton leading 52% to 48%. We are still waiting for at least two Obama strongholds to report. There are already some surprises in the results. Obama carried St. Joseph county, home of South Bend, and a Catholic stronghold. How the Catholic vote broke out will be interesting to look at. He also unexpectedly won neighboring Elkhart county by 18%.
9:14PM: MSNBC just changed their designation for Indiana from "too early to call" to "too close to call". That is significant. Obama strongholds are yet to come in with now only a 6 point margin between the two candidates with 68% reporting. Clinton may still win Indiana, and most likely will, but the margin is going to be very thin either way.This is shaping up to be a disastrous night for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
9:00PM: More than half of Marion county has come in. One northwestern county is starting to come in. The margin is tightening fast. With 65% of precincts reporting it is now Clinton 53% to Obama 47%. Surprisingly, it is coming down to African American turnout in Indiana. It is going to be close. In North Carolina with 23% precincts reporting Obama leads 61% to 37%.
8:52PM: While we wait for the results to come in, I want to get two things off my chest. Harold Ford Jr is an idiot (if you are watching MSNBC you will know exactly what I mean). And I am with Kos when he says Harold Ickes is a scumbag.
8:39PM: I am a little puzzled by CBS’s call, especially now that none of the other networks have called the race in Indiana. With Obama strongholds not reporting in yet, it would have to either be a blowout or a premature call. But with 52% reporting Clinton now leads Obama by 54% to 46%. Most rural counties have reported in, so the margin will be closing fast.
8:18PM: CBS has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton, but the other networks have not. Marion county is still coming in and the northwestern counties have not reported yet. But with CBS calling it, its only a matter of time until other networks call it for Clinton.
Vote totals are starting to come in for North Carolina. with 9% of precincts reporting Obama is winning 64% to 34%. The popular vote margin is likely to be huge.
7:48PM: Interestingly, Hillary Clinton’s margins in the rural Indiana counties appear to be less, and in some cases significantly less, than similar counties in Pennsylvania. With 15% reporting, Obama is ahead in Marion county 60% to 40%.
7:44PM: The northwestern Indiana counties have not reported yet. Marion county is just starting to report. If the networks call the Indiana race before those counties come in, then you can be sure that Clinton wins with a wide margin. If they wait until those counties come in, then this race is very close.
7:38PM: Tim Russert on MSNBC is calling Obama’s victory in North Carolina "decisive". Now we wait to see the actual numbers as they come in. With 21% of Indiana precincts reporting Clinton leads 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first. Indianapolis starting to come in now with Obama leading early (with 8% reporting) 57% to 42% in Marion county.
7:30PM: As polls close in North Carolina, MSNBC and CNN call it for Barack Obama.
7:27PM: In the middle of all of this, Barack Obama picks up the endorsement of a North Carolina super delegate.
7:14PM: Polls closed in Indiana at 7pm. MSNBC has it "too early to call". CNN has county by county break downs of results coming in. Currently with 9% of the precincts reporting Clinton leads Obama 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first, so expect that margin to tighten. North Carolina polls close at 7:30PM.
Holy shit! 72% in, and only 4 points difference in IN! What a night!!
zm, I am not feeling so nervous about my predictions. Perhaps the shoe will not have to be eaten.
shell-shocked, I see that you are speechless 🙂
I am feeling much better about my potential shoe eating.
remove the “
Ok. I see that you have updated your blog about the same time.
I was talking sbout the less than 20k vote lead.
And the HTML code got me second time too…
There are some votes remaining in Marion, in Bloomington, and the rest of Lake county. The question is if Obama can hold about 59% in Lake. If he can, he will pull this out. The Marion and Bloomington votes will go toward Obama, so the margin will narrow.
The diff is 10k. I may not have much nail left on my fingers soon
92% in. Still 20k up.
There are 11 thousand absentee votes. There’s no way they will call it tonight.
If Obama takes Lake county, the absentees may not matter there. The margin could swing 20k the other way if the votes come in similar to Marion.
This was a wonderful evening, even if my cable was out during the first hour of CNN’s broadcast.
Is is just me, or white women dominate the clip?
On a more substantial note, any idea how important has the gas tax issue been in the result?
Obama got 4 more super delegates today.
When is Hillary going to wake up?
Obama just added Jennifer McClellan, a Virginia super delegate who had previously endorsed Clinton. She told the Washington Post last week that she was wavering in her support of Clinton.
This trend will now accelerate.
Jyoti, its not just you, its white middle aged women to be specific.
I think the gas tax cost Clinton in both North Carolina and Indiana. She lost ground on the overall white vote and the liberal vote. It is no surprise that Obama showed late momentum in the polls leading up to the primaries. That momentum paid off big in both states. She miscalculated big with this pander to try to get some more blue collar votes. Three things that went wrong for her: