It’s time to take another crack at the primary season parlor game. Democrats and independents will be voting in the West Virginia Democratic primary tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is poised to win a landslide victory in the Mountain State. Barack Obama has already more or less conceded the state. The very few polls that have been done show Hillary Clinton with a 30 point plus lead. In the larger Democratic race the results tomorrow will not alter the outcome – Barack Obama already has an insurmountable lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction game, its a good one to play.
Since the polls are few and the state-wide margin is not really in doubt, I wanted to play the game at a county by county level. For the record, my state-wide prediction is that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama 70.9% to 29.1%. I predict a statewide turnout of 404,542 voters with Clinton getting 286,675 and Obama getting 117,863 votes. There are 665,234 registered Democrats and 156,199 registered independent voters in West Virginia. For comparison, the 2004 Democratic primary turnout was 252,839 voters.
West Virginia is a neighboring state and just a short drive from where I live. The Virginia counties to the west and south of me soon begin to resemble those in West Virginia – largely rural, Appalachian counties with breathtaking views. The West Virginia population is mainly White, with county median household incomes varying from $20,000 to just above $50,000 in a county close to the Washington DC metro area. The percentage of people living below the poverty line is as low as 9% in the counties nearest Washington DC to as high as 25% in most of the rural counties. It is beautiful country, but it is also a place where Bill Clinton is very fondly remembered. Barack Obama will receive below 10% of the vote in some West Virginia counties.
Here are my county-by-county predictions for tomorrow, based on demographic data and 2008 primary results in similar Appalachian counties in Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania:
| County | Total Votes | Clinton | Obama | % Clinton | % Obama |
| Barbour | 3594 | 2979 | 615 | 82.9 | 17.1 |
| Berkeley | 7106 | 3979 | 3127 | 56 | 44 |
| Boone | 9571 | 8451 | 1120 | 88.3 | 11.7 |
| Braxton | 5202 | 4500 | 702 | 86.5 | 13.5 |
| Brooke | 7195 | 5274 | 1921 | 73.3 | 26.7 |
| Cabell | 20627 | 12789 | 7838 | 62 | 38 |
| Calhoun | 2069 | 1846 | 223 | 89.2 | 10.8 |
| Clay | 3541 | 3229 | 312 | 91.2 | 8.8 |
| Doddridge | 843 | 715 | 128 | 84.8 | 15.2 |
| Fayette | 11267 | 8800 | 2467 | 78.1 | 21.9 |
| Gilmer | 2394 | 1841 | 553 | 76.9 | 23.1 |
| Grant | 530 | 423 | 107 | 79.9 | 20.1 |
| Greenbrier | 8533 | 6357 | 2176 | 74.5 | 25.5 |
| Hampshire | 3485 | 2704 | 781 | 77.6 | 22.4 |
| Hancock | 9024 | 6651 | 2373 | 73.7 | 26.3 |
| Hardy | 2734 | 2174 | 560 | 79.5 | 20.5 |
| Harrison | 18725 | 13182 | 5543 | 70.4 | 29.6 |
| Jackson | 5722 | 4446 | 1276 | 77.7 | 22.3 |
| Jefferson | 6994 | 2301 | 4693 | 32.9 | 67.1 |
| Kanawha | 44454 | 22494 | 21960 | 50.6 | 49.4 |
| Lewis | 3843 | 3170 | 673 | 82.5 | 17.5 |
| Lincoln | 6901 | 6377 | 524 | 92.4 | 7.6 |
| Logan | 10890 | 9137 | 1753 | 83.9 | 16.1 |
| McDowell | 7426 | 5725 | 1701 | 77.1 | 22.9 |
| Marion | 18488 | 12738 | 5750 | 68.9 | 31.1 |
| Marshall | 8656 | 6968 | 1688 | 80.5 | 19.5 |
| Mason | 6627 | 5673 | 954 | 85.6 | 14.4 |
| Mercer | 12202 | 8712 | 3490 | 71.4 | 28.6 |
| Mineral | 4181 | 3102 | 1079 | 74.2 | 25.8 |
| Mingo | 10627 | 9373 | 1254 | 88.2 | 11.8 |
| Monongalia | 14606 | 6032 | 8574 | 41.3 | 58.7 |
| Monroe | 3011 | 2571 | 440 | 85.4 | 14.6 |
| Morgan | 1491 | 1120 | 371 | 75.1 | 24.9 |
| Nicholas | 7112 | 6109 | 1003 | 85.9 | 14.1 |
| Ohio | 9918 | 5514 | 4404 | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| Pendleton | 2285 | 1782 | 503 | 78 | 22 |
| Pleasants | 1918 | 1532 | 386 | 79.9 | 20.1 |
| Pocahontas | 2251 | 1828 | 423 | 81.2 | 18.8 |
| Preston | 4442 | 3642 | 800 | 82 | 18 |
| Putnam | 10478 | 5187 | 5291 | 49.5 | 50.5 |
| Raleigh | 14942 | 10086 | 4856 | 67.5 | 32.5 |
| Randolph | 8035 | 6219 | 1816 | 77.4 | 22.6 |
| Ritchie | 1069 | 945 | 124 | 88.4 | 11.6 |
| Roane | 2944 | 2579 | 365 | 87.6 | 12.4 |
| Summers | 3870 | 2933 | 937 | 75.8 | 24.2 |
| Taylor | 3774 | 3046 | 728 | 80.7 | 19.3 |
| Tucker | 2192 | 1819 | 373 | 83 | 17 |
| Tyler | 1395 | 1200 | 195 | 86 | 14 |
| Upshur | 3170 | 2495 | 675 | 78.7 | 21.3 |
| Wayne | 12238 | 9986 | 2252 | 81.6 | 18.4 |
| Webster | 3958 | 3574 | 384 | 90.3 | 9.7 |
| Wetzel | 5515 | 4544 | 971 | 82.4 | 17.6 |
| Wirt | 1488 | 1248 | 240 | 83.9 | 16.1 |
| Wood | 12547 | 8783 | 3764 | 70 | 30 |
| Wyoming | 6442 | 5791 | 651 | 89.9 | 10.1 |
Mash, have you had a chance to play with CNN’s Dem Delegate Tracker toy? If Hillary wins 70-30, she nets eight delegates.
Or roughly what Barack Obama nets in about thirty-six hours. 🙂
Cali, I took a look at it last night. Thanks. I like it better than the Slate one.
I think Obama has picked up almost as many superdelegates this past week as West Virginia has. Nonetheless, Clinton will milk this for all its worth. If Obama ends up outperforming, Clinton’s victory will look like a defeat.