Let’s face it. John McCain is no longer running against Barack Obama in this race. He is running against Sarah Palin, and vice versa. According to the McCain campaign, Palin has "gone rogue", and become a "diva". Now a top McCain advisor is calling Palin a "whack job". That, seems to me, is a sign of a campaign in turmoil. Sarah Palin wants to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, but the baton handoff from McCain to Palin is apparently not going smoothly.
With one week to go, the trajectory of the race appears to be set. Barring an extraordinary external event, only one thing could alter the arc of the race at this point: if Obama supporters fail to go to the polls on November 4th.
Barack Obama has begun his closing argument, and to help him, tomorrow he is being joined by the Big Dog. Bill Clinton, the master of timing, will appear together for the first time with Barack Obama tomorrow at a rally in Florida. That event, and Obama’s 30 minute prime-time television program, should dominate the news cycle all of tomorrow.
So, its prediction time. I have my shoe ready in case I have to eat it on election night. Here’s how I think election day will play out:
The battleground has shifted decisively in Barack Obama’s favor. A number of states that were contested just a few weeks ago are now firmly in Obama’s column. Others, perennial Republican states, are now genuine toss-ups. This election is being played out in red states. This has forced McCain to try to win a big blue state. Hence, Pennsylvania. But, while McCain throws resources into Pennsylvania Obama is about to pick his pocket in Ohio and Florida. In the end, McCain will probably lose all three – a stunning development for a Republican presidential candidate.
And, of course, there is Virginia. Obama now has a solid lead here, and I see no indication that McCain can close the gap. Virginia will be the bell weather on election day. If Virginia is called for Obama early next Tuesday night, the election is over and we will be on landslide watch.
I predict a national popular vote margin of 53.2% to 46.8% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 375 to 163 for Barack Obama.
I predict John McCain will win Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and South Carolina.
I predict Barack Obama will win Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC. Obama will also win the battleground states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Indiana looks very good for Obama. My sense is there is enough enthusiasm on the ground there to pull out a narrow win for Obama.
I am tempted to put Georgia in Obama’s column, but I think I will hold off. All in all, this is headed toward a landslide.
So, what are your predictions?
Mash, you’re being quite optimistic. Maybe it’s my tin foil hat telling me that the GOP will be up to their disgusting dirty tricks between now and next Tuesday.
I will never, ever underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. We learned that lesson four years ago. While Obama is drawing big crowds, how many of those people are going to vote for him? How many are going to stay home because they think he has enough votes to win already?
All I know is that McCain must carry PA, FL, NC, OH, MO, CO and NV. If he fails to carry both OH and PA, it’s all over and Obama will have a short evening.
It will be Obama 326-212, but only because I’m being cautious.
Let me amend my last post…
If McCain wins all of those states I mentioned but NC, Obama wins 271-267.
That’s what I like about this election. Even if Obama loses both PA and OH, he can still win by flipping NC or FL in his favor.
Robbie, the dirty tricks have already started. I think if VA flips, so does NC. I am pretty confident VA will flip. The registration numbers looks very good for Obama here. So I am pretty confident he pulls it out in NC as well.
PA is not going to McCain. With Randell and Nutter on the ground, I think Philly comes in in a big way for Obama. With McCain focused on PA, he cant hold FL (especially with Clinton stumping for Obama there). Plus Charlie Crist just handed the Dems a big leg up today by expanding early voting.
Now, the big surprise is OH. But the polls are showing Obama pulling away there, so I am going to rely on the polling. The economy is front and center in OH. Plus, Obama will get a much bigger African American turnout than Kerry did – and that should be a decisive difference.
The Southwest is looking more and more solid for Obama – so NV, NM and CO should go his way.
Now, the two big questions are IN an MO. I think MO is close, but will tip Obama on the strength of heavy turnout in St. Louis. I am taking a leap of faith with IN. A few weeks ago, I would have thought, and I did think, IN was out of reach. But, Obama has closed fast there and the IN guv’s recent behavior shows that he thinks McCain/Palin are in serious trouble there.
Have you folks counted for the effects of last moment swiftboating?
I live in a battleground state with a 10% lead of Obama. Starting earlier this week, I am being bombarded with
1. Daily paper mails containing unprotested and false negative info about Obama.
2. Robocalls.
3. A flooding of TV prime time negative ads both from McCain campaign and 527 orgs.
I am afaraid, those folks (esp the elderly one) who are undecided this late in the season and who have tilted towards Obama in the last two weeks, may get confused by all these negative stuffs.
Rumi, we’ll have to see. In general, last minute swiftboating does not work. This stuff is much more effective in August and September. Late October is usually too late. It is very difficult to define a candidate the week before the election. When Obama is polling 50% or over in a state, McCain would not only have to sway all the undecideds but would also have to peel away those that currently support Obama. That is a tall order.
Is McCain up with ads in your state or is it the RNC? McCain has pulled ads from a number of states that slipped out of his grasp. It would be some news if McCain was continuing to pay for ads in your state.
If you get a chance, record the robocall. I’d love to get a copy of it.
Where McCain can peel away enough voters to swing the results is in IN, NC and MO where Obama is polling below 50%. But, I still think, this late McCain needs a positive closing argument, and he simply doesnt have it.
Mash, did you get the email I sent you about the notice allegedly under Virginia state authority saying that because of expected high turnout, they’re requesting that Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents vote on the 4th, and Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents vote on the 5th in Virginia? It’s circulating down in the Norfolk/Hampton area, and is under criminal investigation.
Oh, and hubby came home last night and said “Okay, explain this one to me again — is Obama Muslim?” I fainted dead away, and then responded with the traditional double-pointed explanation that a) no he isn’t, but b) so what if he were? Hubby’s response was “Okay, I thought that was the case, but at work, I keep getting into these debates with people who very convincingly talk like they really believe this other stuff.” A lot of people, smart people even, are still swallowing Kool-aid, and then talking about it with such sincerity that it makes even well-informed, smart other people question their reality.
I can’t believe people would still be falling for such insanity this close to the election — but if you can’t win fair, win by any means possible, I guess.
Yes, people will believe anything.
My sister in law called Obama the anti-christ
I had to leave the room so I wouldn’t yell you idiot!
Boy when people let others make their decisions for them it is so frustrating
Vickie
I will confess that I am in prediction overload and yet my addiction to all things MSNBC remains strong. That said, I fear that the previously enthusiatic youth will either revert to form and assume others will show up, or worse yet, assume the election is a lock and go off to a party.
I am encouraged by the report in today’s Chicago Tribune that 544k voters have cast ballots. A stunning number.
I wish you luck with your prognostications.
And Mash, I was very tempted to tease you about the use of quotes. I find that now, because of John the Elder, I either want to use air quotes more or tear a rotator cuff stopping myself.
Mash, I’m too scared to predict..I’m being chicken little and hope the freakin’ sky won’t fall down..if it hasn’t by next week..I’ll breath again and relax..
Ingrid
Ingrid, I cant resist the parlor game 🙂 Don’t be chicken little and dont fall for the Republican spin. Obama is in a strong position going into the final weekend – there is reason to be optimistic. This election will be won or lost by turnout. The best we can do is vote, then all that is left is the counting.
(air quotes) Red (air quotes), I think there has been too much focus on the youth vote. Obama is expanding the electorate by getting more African Americans and a lot of lapsed voters. Plus, he is winning the Southwest by consolidating the Latino vote. Thats the story of this campaign, not thee youth vote. The youth vote will add to his margin if it turns out, but it is not what is winning this election. Remember, if the African American vote had turned out for Kerry in Ohio in 2004, he would now be President.
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