My Election Prediction

President Obama, President Clinton and Gov. Tim Kaine

President Obama with Bill Clinton and Tim Kaine at Bristow, VA yesterday

It has been a long long time since I’ve written a blog post. However, it’s time to make election predictions. So here goes mine.

I predict that this Tuesday President Barack Obama will be re-elected for a second term. I predict a national popular vote margin of 51.5% to 48.5% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 332 to 206 for Barack Obama.

Here are my state-by-state battleground predictions (excluding third party candidates):

Obama will win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney will win North Carolina.

Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 49%

Florida: Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5%

Iowa: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

Nevada: Obama 53%, Romney 47%

Ohio: Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5%

Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 47%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 49%

North Carolina: Romney 50.5%, Obama 49.5%

Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, Romney 47%

Virginia: Obama 51.7%, Romney 48.3%

Wisconsin: Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5%

So, why will Obama win and Romney lose? I think the American people seldom, if ever, elect a candidate if that candidate’s campaign is essentially a bet against America. Romney’s bet was that the American economy would tank – he bet wrong. We are left now with a flailing Romney campaign that looks at positive jobs numbers and tries to spin them as something bad for America. I think the collective wisdom of the electorate can see that for what it is: a bet against America. That bet translates into a failed campaign for the presidency.

President Obama is pulling America out of an economic mess left him by the previous administration. The steady turn from losing 800,000 jobs a month when he took office to gaining over 170,000 a month as of this month is positive for America. Denying that reality was never a winning strategy for Romney. I think Tuesday will bear that out in an Obama win.

Now all that remains is for the American people to vote and make history once again. So, go vote.

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  1. Pingback: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying » Election Predictions: How Did I Do?

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