Election Predictions: How Did I Do?

I had predicted an electoral landslide for President Obama with a 332-206 win. I had also predicted a popular vote margin for Obama of 51.5% to 48.5% head to head.

How did I do?

With Florida now in Obama’s column, he won with 332-206. So, I hit the electoral result exactly right.

Though some votes are still being counted, the popular vote tally right now is 61,122,638 for Obama and 58,130,991 for Romney.

That is a margin of 51.3% to 48.7%. So I was off by 0.2% nationally. Not bad I think.

As for the battleground states, my head-to-head predictions for the margins and actual results (as they stand now) are as follows:

Battleground State My Prediction Actual Result Variance
Colorado Obama 51%, Romney 49% Obama 52%, Romney 48% -2
Florida Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5% Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5% 0
Iowa Obama 52%, Romney 48% Obama 53%, Romney 47% -2
Michigan Obama 53%, Romney 47% Obama 54.5%, Romney 45.5% -3
Nevada Obama 53%, Romney 47% Obama 53%, Romney 47% 0
New Hampshire Obama 51%, Romney 49% Obama 53%, Romney 47% -4
North Carolina Romney 50.5%, Obama 49.5% Romney 51.5%, Obama 48.5% -2
Ohio Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% Obama 51%, Romney 49% +1
Pennsylvania Obama 53%, Romney 47% Obama 52.5%, Romney 47.5% +1
Virginia Obama 51.7%, Romney 48.3% Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% +0.4
Wisconsin Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% Obama 53.5%, Romney 46.5% -4

So, I nailed the margins in 2 states: Florida and Nevada. I missed 3 states by a hair: Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I missed the margins in 6 states by large margins of 2% to 4%. So, not bad on the battleground state margins but not great either.

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