I had predicted an electoral landslide for President Obama with a 332-206 win. I had also predicted a popular vote margin for Obama of 51.5% to 48.5% head to head.
How did I do?
With Florida now in Obama’s column, he won with 332-206. So, I hit the electoral result exactly right.
Though some votes are still being counted, the popular vote tally right now is 61,122,638 for Obama and 58,130,991 for Romney.
That is a margin of 51.3% to 48.7%. So I was off by 0.2% nationally. Not bad I think.
As for the battleground states, my head-to-head predictions for the margins and actual results (as they stand now) are as follows:
| Battleground State | My Prediction | Actual Result | Variance |
| Colorado | Obama 51%, Romney 49% | Obama 52%, Romney 48% | -2 |
| Florida | Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5% | Obama 50.5%, Romney 49.5% | 0 |
| Iowa | Obama 52%, Romney 48% | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | -2 |
| Michigan | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | Obama 54.5%, Romney 45.5% | -3 |
| Nevada | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | 0 |
| New Hampshire | Obama 51%, Romney 49% | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | -4 |
| North Carolina | Romney 50.5%, Obama 49.5% | Romney 51.5%, Obama 48.5% | -2 |
| Ohio | Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% | Obama 51%, Romney 49% | +1 |
| Pennsylvania | Obama 53%, Romney 47% | Obama 52.5%, Romney 47.5% | +1 |
| Virginia | Obama 51.7%, Romney 48.3% | Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% | +0.4 |
| Wisconsin | Obama 51.5%, Romney 48.5% | Obama 53.5%, Romney 46.5% | -4 |
So, I nailed the margins in 2 states: Florida and Nevada. I missed 3 states by a hair: Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I missed the margins in 6 states by large margins of 2% to 4%. So, not bad on the battleground state margins but not great either.
