Fear, Politics & Opportunity Costs

 

Passengers wait in London as Mr. Bush arrives in Wisconsin

 

Late last night as I was preparing to make my nightly overseas call to my wife and daughter, CNN interrupted regular programming with "Breaking News" from London. The news that broke late last night has now reverberated across the globe as travelers struggle to adjust to the new normal. It now appears that nearly five years after 9/11 those who would do us harm are still eyeing air travel as their primary target. It now appears that after five years of "fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here", we are still fighting "them" here.

My first thought last night upon hearing the news was how to bring my wife and daughter safely back to the United States. They are scheduled to return from Bangladesh through London’s Heathrow Airport in about a week and a half. I am now faced with the decision to either postpone their return flight, reroute them through another city, or to allow them to return via British Airways as originally planned. None of the choices appeal to me right now and I am sure to be a nervous wreck until I have my daughter within hugging distance. Such is my predicament and I am sure many others are facing similar concerns today.

So, why after 5 years and two wars later are we feeling no safer than we felt on 9/12/2001? President Bush would have us believe that the war in Iraq is making us safer and American soldiers are dying on Iraqi soil so that Americans here at home can enjoy our freedoms. If asked why these people are trying to kill us, Mr. Bush’s stock response is: "They hate us for our freedoms." On September 20, 2001, Mr. Bush addressed a joint session of Congress and declared:

Americans are asking, why do they hate us?  They hate what we see right here in this chamber — a democratically elected government.  Their leaders are self-appointed.  They hate our freedoms — our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.

Americans are still asking that question. Why do they hate us? Five years later Mr. Bush still has no clue – except to repeat his well-worn talking point: they hate us for our freedoms. That answer simply is not good enough. In the wake of the disaster in Iraq, in the wake of the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, in the wake of hundreds of billions of dollars spent on a senseless war, in the wake of today’s arrests in London, we deserve an answer that is a little more than a talking point.

We also want to know who Mr. Bush thinks the "they" are. Today while the world adjusted to renewed fear, Mr. Bush read his talking points:

Speaking briefly on a visit to Wisconsin, Bush said the foiled plane plot was "a stark reminder that this nation is at war with Islamic fascists who will use any means to destroy those of us who love freedom, to hurt our nation."

Who are these "Islamic fascists"? Why is the President of the United States using this opportunity to push neo-conservative talking points and labels. Are these "Islamic fascists" the Iraqi insurgents? Are they the Shia in Iraq? Are they the Iranians? Are they Hezbollah or Hamas? Is Bashar al-Assad of Syria an "Islamic fascist"? These are important questions, especially because at various times, the President of the United States has equated all these actors as the enemy in his War on Terror. In Mr. Bush’s eyes, all these actors are al Qaeda. From his worldview, the war in Iraq makes perfect sense – it is the collective "them" that he is crusading against. Reality is not so simple. It is Mr. Bush’s lack of understanding of the world around him that brings us to this day – a day of fear not the least bit lessened by his misadventure in Iraq. In fact, Mr. Bush by his rhetoric and by his actions gives fuel to extremism.

By conflating various disparate actors in the Middle East and the Muslim world into one "them", Mr. Bush inadvertently incites the very extremism he hopes to defeat. The disaffected extremist no longer has to pick which movement he feels solidarity with – he can now feel solidarity with all of them thanks to Mr. Bush. An Islamic extremist can now connect the dots between the plight of the Palestinians, the plight of the Iraqis, the plight of the Lebanese, the ambitions of Iran and Syria, the bombers in Bali, London, Madrid, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the rebels in Kashmir, the Chechens, the Somalis, and all the rest. They are all part of a collective that has been given unity by Mr. Bush’s rhetoric. Mr. Bush gives local conflicts global scope in his black and white universe. Extremists of the Muslim world, who are otherwise natural enemies in many cases, now have a common enemy and a collective cause thanks to Mr. Bush’s ready rhetoric. Mr. Bush’s "Clash of Civilizations" is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

On the fundamental fight against al Qaeda and terrorists Mr. Bush has failed spectacularly. Today’s events in London are a stark reminder of this failure. The Bush Administration has spent American resources and lives in an ill-conceived and bloody romp through Iraq instead of fighting the extremists who mean to do us harm. The fight against extremism has always been about intelligence, police work, and international cooperation – and today’s arrests bear witness to that. Today’s arrests happened in spite of Bush Administration policy, not because of them. Mr. Bush’s idea of fighting terrorism is "staying the course" in Iraq. While he spends billions in Iraq, the real work of fighting terrorism is starved of resources. Nonetheless, Mr. Bush sees today’s events as a political opportunity. He and his advisors are in the midst of a full-bore attack on the Democrats to try to paint them weak on defense for wanting to leave Iraq. Still, somehow Mr. bush believes Iraq and today’s events are part of the same issue. He also apparently believes, come November, the American public will see it his way:

US President George W. Bush seized on a foiled London airline bomb plot to hammer unnamed critics he accused of having all but forgotten the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Weighed down by the unpopular war in  Iraq, Bush and his aides have tried to shift the national political debate from that conflict to the broader and more popular global war on terrorism ahead of November 7 congressional elections.

His remarks came a day after the White House orchestrated an exceptionally aggressive campaign to tar opposition Democrats as weak on terrorism, knowing what Democrats didn’t: News of the plot could soon break.

Vice President Dick Cheney and White House spokesman Tony Snow had argued that Democrats wanted to raise what Snow called "a white flag in the war on terror," citing as evidence the defeat of a three-term Democratic senator who backed the Iraq war in his effort to win renomination.

But Bush aides on Thursday fought the notion that they had exploited their knowledge of the coming British raid to hit Democrats, saying the trigger had been the defeat of Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut by an anti-war political novice.

"I’d rather be talking about this than all of the other things that Congress hasn’t done well," one Republican congressional aide told AFP on condition of anonymity because of possible reprisals.

"Weeks before September 11th, this is going to play big," said another White House official, who also spoke on condition of not being named, adding that some Democratic candidates won’t "look as appealing" under the circumstances.

It remains to be seen whether the American public will once again cow down to the Bush Administration’s exploitation of fear this November.

Mr. Bush’s failures in the War on Terror have been many. While he spins the politics of fear to once again bludgeon the Democrats and the public, we should keep in mind the hundreds of billions spent in Iraq that might have been spent on fighting terror. Some stark examples of national security concerns that have been neglected while Mr. Bush "stayed the course" in Iraq are:

  • the search for Osama bin Laden.
  • the underfunding of homeland security in major American cities such as Washington, DC and New York.
  • underfunding of proper securing of Soviet era nuclear materials.
  • underfunding of rail transit security.
  • five years after 9/11, treating border security only as a political issue and not as a serious national security issue.
  • lack of adequate security for cargo on commercial flights.
  • lack of adequate security on cargo containers arriving at U.S. ports.
  • lack of attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (a fundamental grievance that fuels much of Islamic extremism).
  • lack of attention to conflicts in the Horn of Africa.

Instead of addressing the genuine national security concerns listed above, Mr. Bush has led us into a civil war in Iraq. Instead of fighting terror in Afghanistan, Mr. Bush has installed an Iranian proxy government in Iraq. And, today while most of the world worried if their loved ones would get home safely, Mr. Bush spent the day raising money for his political friends:

The president stuck with his itinerary, which included a plant tour and a fundraiser.  

Bush used his visit to a metal stamping plant in Green Bay to promote the importance of tax cuts to the American economy.

Bush told workers at Fox Valley Metal-Tech that because small businesses are vital for economic growth, taxes for those businesses should be cut.

The president also attended a private fundraiser for John Gard in Oneida. Gard hopes to replace U.S. Rep. Mark Green as the 8th District representative.

A typical day for a Commander-in-Chief who sees politics when Americans feel fear. Stay the course, indeed.

 

Posted in Foreign Policy, Politics, Terrorism | 13 Comments

Conceit

 

Joseph Lieberman loses primary but not his arrogance

"I could be well moved, if I were as you:
If I could pray to move, prayers would move me:
But I am constant as the northern star,
Of whose true-fix’d and resting quality
There is no fellow in the firmament.
The skies are painted with unnumber’d sparks,
They are all fire and every one doth shine,
But there’s but one in all doth hold his place:
So in the world; ’tis furnish’d well with men,
And men are flesh and blood, and apprehensive;
Yet in the number I do know but one
That unassailable holds on his rank,
Unshaked of motion: and that I am he"
 
 
Posted in Politics | 10 Comments

Bend The Truth Like CNN

On March 12, 2006 a 14-year-old Iraqi girl named Abeer Qasim Hamza al-Janabi was brutally gang raped and murdered in the village of Mahmoudiya. Members of her family, including her 5-year-old sister were also murdered. Five American soldiers stand accused of these heinous crimes. The preliminary hearing for four of the accused soldiers is currently taking place in Iraq.

CNN reported on the graphic testimony earlier today in an article on its website. However, something was curiously absent from the coverage. Below is a screen shot from CNN’s report:

CNN's first report of the day

Notice the caption under the picture: "Steven Green is alleged to have shot and killed the woman’s relatives, raped the victim, then fatally shot her." Since when have you heard of a 14-year-old being referred to as a "woman"? In fact, this article never once refers to Abeer as a "girl", instead referring to her as "an Iraqi" or a "woman". Only toward the end of the article do we learn that:

Identity cards and death certificates obtained by Reuters news agency suggest the rape-murder victim was 14 years old.

And further down still:

The identity cards and death certificates of the victims, obtained by Reuters, show that the alleged rape victim was Abeer Qassim Hamza al-Janabi, with the birthdate August 19, 1991. The mayor of Mahmoudiya confirmed her identity and birthdate to CNN.

The U.S. military had previously referred to the alleged rape victim as a "young Iraqi woman." A Justice Department affidavit in the case against Green says investigators estimated her age at about 25, while the U.S. military said she was 20.

Thank you CNN for some excellent reporting!

CNN also filed a second story on the hearing this evening. This time someone at CNN figured out that a 14-year-old is not a woman. Here’s a screen shot from the second article from CNN:

CNN's second story

This time Abeer is referred to as a "girl" all throughout the article. In fact the contrast between the first and the second articles could not be greater. (Someone still forgot to update the caption under the photo).

It appears that by the second story editors at CNN may have decided to give up trying to spin this story. This crime is so heinous that no amount of lipstick will pretty up the facts.

Try as it might, CNN failed to capture the ambience at the hearing. Reuters reports on the seriousness of the proceedings:

Defense Attorney Captain Jimmie Culp was blowing chewing gum bubbles while Yribe, sitting to his left, began sucking on a red lollipop during the testimony.

Apparently testimony about the brutal rape and murder of a child is best enjoyed with bubble gum and lollipops.

Hearts and minds. No doubt CNN was thinking about hearts and minds when it massaged the facts just a bit in the first story of the day. Considering the levity at the hearing and the willingness of the media to shape the story, I wonder if the Iraqis think that they will ever get any justice from the Americans.

Posted in Human Rights, Iraq | 9 Comments

The Damage Has Already Been Done

 

Hezbollah's crude weapon

 

The Bush Administration is maneuvering mightily at the United Nations to give Ehud Olmert an exit without humiliation. Olmert for his part is trying to create facts on the ground (troops in Lebanon) as quickly as possible to give the veneer of victory. However, the damage has already been done. Israel’s aura of invincibility is all but gone.

The current draft of the "ceasefire" resolution at the UN Security Council is probably not worth the paper it is written on. As many have noted, the primary point of contention is that it allows Israel to occupy Southern Lebanon and continue what it deems "defensive" military actions. The key paragraph from the resolution states:

OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

This paragraph has already been rejected by Lebanon and Hezbollah. Any resolution that leaves Israeli forces on Lebanese soil will not be acceptable to Hezbollah. Nonetheless, the United States hopes to hammer the resolution through the Security Council. To do so, all that has to happen is that Russia and China do not invoke their vetoes. Given the violence on the ground, it is likely that no vetoes will be cast and this resolution, if put to a vote, will pass.

The passage of this resolution will not stop the fighting. In fact, it may even escalate it. However, it will give Ehud Olmert some breathing room until a second resolution authorizing a UN force in Lebanon is passed. In Olmert’s fantasy, an UN force will be inserted into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah – a task that the IDF has proven itself incapable of doing. In reality, no country will contribute troops to a UN force to disarm Hezbollah. Without a political solution, Israel will be left to occupy Southern Lebanon again. Ehud Olmert will learn the lessons of history first hand.

Regardless of the direction of this conflict, the damage to Israel’s deterrence has already been done. In 3 weeks of fighting, Israel has failed to crush Hezbollah. That was not unexpected. However, in 3 weeks of constant bombardment and ground assaults, Israel has failed to stop Hezbollah rockets from hitting deep within Israel. That is a massive strategic failure for Israel. Israel has proven itself incapable of defending against a lightly armed militia with a stockpile of unguided rockets. Against a more well armed foe, the toll on Israel might have been severe.

Time is now Israel’s foe – both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, the longer this conflict drags on, the weaker Israel looks. In the long term, Israel’s foes will inevitably acquire more and more sophisticated weaponry. Israel’s deterrence capabilities will continue to weaken as it’s enemies gain in sophistication. At some point in the future, Israel will no longer be capable of making peace on its own terms. When that tipping point is reached, the peace proposals that Israel has so far rejected will start to look awfully good, yet may no longer be available.

This gambit of Olmert’s was always unwinnable. The only question really was how much damage would Israel’s deterrence capability suffer. After weeks of fighting, it is safe to say that Israel’s deterrence is severely weakened. Israel and Ehud Olmert again have two choices to salvage this mess. They can climb down or they can escalate. It appears now that they have chosen to escalate. The hope apparently is that by causing massive destruction in Lebanon Israel will have shown its might and deterred its enemies:

A senior General Staff officer told Haaretz that for the first time since the fighting began, Israel plans to attack strategic infrastructure targets and symbols of the Lebanese government.

Other than bombing the Beirut airport to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah, Israel has hitherto not targeted Lebanon’s infrastructure, insisting that it is only at war with Hezbollah, not with the Lebanese government or people.

However, the officer said, "we are now in a process of renewed escalation. We will continue hitting everything that moves in Hezbollah – but we will also hit strategic civilian infrastructure."

So, escalation it is. As Ehud Olmert escalates and the neo-cons in Washington cheer him on, the people of Lebanon and Israel continue to suffer. However, no amount of escalation will gain back what Israel has already lost – its deterrence.

Posted in Middle East Conflict | 5 Comments

Proof Of Life

 

Ehud Goldwasser

 

Tonight on Larry King Live, Ehud Goldwasser’s father and wife appeared to plea for his safe return. Ehud Goldwasser is one of two Israeli soldiers captured by Hezbollah on July 12. It was the precipitating event of this spasm of violence.

Karnit Goldwasser, Ehud’s wife, made an emotional plea to the wives of Hezbollah for information about his health and safety. When Ehud’s father, Shlomo Goldwasser, spoke about his efforts to free his son, his voice trembled with the quiet anguish of a parent:

KARNIT GOLDWASSER, WIFE OF KIDNAPPED ISRAELI SOLDIER: First of all, I want to thank the people who brought us here to speak to you. I ask the wives of Hezbollah to help me to get a sign that Ehud and Dan are still alive and to know if something happened to them, if they are injured or not.

KING: Shlomo, you’ve heard nothing?

SHLOMO GOLDWASSER, FATHER OF KIDNAPPED ISRAELI SOLDIER: Nothing. It’s now the 23rd day since Ehud was kidnapped. We’ve heard nothing.

KING: Shlomo, what are you doing in the United States?

S. GOLDWASSER: You know, there is no school in the world to teach you what to do when your son is kidnapped. And I was thrown into this situation in the fraction of a second on the 12th of July. And judging what to do, what are the tools to bring him back, I found that there is not so many tools in my hand, and the only one that is in my hands, with the help of you, is the media. I am using it and I’m going everywhere, everywhere that I can raise my voice and have some people to hear me. And you’re doing a great job.

It seems to me that there has been too much death already in this war. Too many parents have lost their children. There has been enough death. Enough.

I still believe if both sides of this conflict could start to see each other as human beings, as mothers and fathers, as brothers and sisters, as sons and daughters, this madness that is destroying generations would come to an end. The beginning of the end can start here. It can start with the safe return of Ehud Goldwasser and his two brothers in arms.

I ask all bloggers who read this post, as a gesture of peace and good will, to repost this plea on your blogs. Ask the same of those who read your posts. Let this plea spread across the blogosphere. Perhaps this plea will be posted on the blogs of our Arab and Lebanese friends. Perhaps this plea will make a difference in saving at least one life.

Regardless of which side of the conflict you are on, let us come together on the shared belief in the sanctity of life. Arabs, Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians, Americans, Jews, and Muslims will still have to live together after the guns fall silent.

This may seem like a naive plea while the bombs and missiles continue to take their deadly toll, but the bombs aren’t working too well – perhaps its time to find some humanity in this madness.

Posted in Human Rights, Middle East Conflict | 19 Comments