I Hate Plumbers

I hate plumbers.

John McCain says plumbers make over a quarter million dollars a year. I have no sympathy for Joe or any other big earner plumber who may see their taxes go up. I say, it’s about time that I got some of my money back.

I have had a leak under the tub in my hall bathroom for three years now. The leak comes and goes, and no one seems to be able to figure out where it is coming from. So, I called a plumber. After a giant hole was cut in my drywall and $400 was handed over I was told the leak was fixed. It was not. The leak reappeared a few weeks later. I called the same plumber back and was told that I would be charged more to fix the same problem.

So I called another plumber. The second plumber said the first plumber didn’t know what he was doing. After another $250 and another hole in the drywall – in a different location – I was told the problem was fixed. It was not. In a few weeks the leak reappeared.

A third plumber, then a fourth, and a few more came to collect money from me to fix this mysterious leak. All told I am out over $2000 for a plumbing problem that remains unfixed three years after it first emerged.

So, I would love to get some of the money back the quarter millionaire plumbers have taken from me.

If there’s a plumber out there, licensed or otherwise, who can actually fix the leak in my house, I am willing to change my mind.

Until then, I will throw my support in with Barack Obama and his tax cuts for all hard working Americans making less than a quarter million dollars a year.

Plumbers, especially ones earning over a quarter million dollars a year, you get no sympathy from me.

Posted in Politics | 20 Comments

John McCain Implodes

Tonight was a very bad night for John McCain. He came into the debate with a steep hill to climb. He ended the debate further behind.

John McCain began the debate well. Thirty minutes into the debate the wheels came off. He was goaded into bringing up William Ayers and ACORN. He brought up both in one poorly cadenced sentence that rushed past McCain’s lips. With that John McCain showed the American public the pettiness of his election campaign. While the country is struggling with an economic crisis and families are struggling with their bills, John McCain made his campaign about school yard taunts and not about the American people. In a little over five minutes of frothing at the mouth about Barack Obama and his "associations", John McCain had lowered himself to the status of his running mate, Sarah Palin. That is to say, John McCain – once a man of honor – became a small petty man. Next to him, Barack Obama looked presidential. The only man on that stage who wanted to talk about the American people was Barack Obama. John McCain was more concerned with defending hate mongers from John Lewis’s words than what his campaign should have been about – the American people. Like Sarah Palin, he made himself into a joke of a candidate.

McCain spent the remainder of the debate either being angry or pushing Republican ideology on social issues, tax policy, education and healthcare. Early on in the debate McCain declared he was not George Bush. Late in the debate he proved that he indeed was George Bush by pushing familiar and failed policy prescriptions. He may have made his base happy, but the few independents that remained undecided probably moved into Obama’s column tonight.

So, the narrative is set now. Barack Obama is calm, thoughtful, and presidential. John McCain is angry, erratic, and petty. The risky candidate is John McCain – a trait that always loses elections.

As it stands tonight, this race has all the hallmarks of an electoral landslide. All that remains now are three weeks of ugliness from the McCain campaign. Then the American people finally speak at the polls.

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Debate Reactions

CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate:

Who won the debate? Obama 53%, McCain 22%

CNN poll of debate watchers:

Who did the best job in the debate? Obama 58%, McCain 31%

 

 

 

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Debate Night

The last of three presidential debates between Barack Obama and John McCain takes place tonight at 9pm at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. All the pundits are looking for a game changer. Serial Liar Sarah Palin is publicly urging John McCain to attack Obama personally. We will see what transpires. We will see how out of touch John McCain demonstrates himself to be tonight.

Three weeks out the polls are firming in favor of Barack Obama. Barack Obama has introduced himself as a steady leader to the American public in the first two debates. He needs to build upon that and speak to the country about the current economic anxieties.

The McCain campaign needs to shake things up. There is potential for fireworks. Then again, it could be a dud.

As before, I will attempt to liveblog below.

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9:10 PM McCain touts his $300 billion plan to get people to renegotiate mortgages. Obama says the ability to renegotate is already part of the $700 billion plan, and that McCain proposes paying the banks full price for the mortgages – a waste of taxpayer money.

9:15PM We are now having a discussion about Joe the plumber. McCain says Obama will raise Joe the pumber’s taxes. Obama says he will cut taxes for anyone making less than a quarter million dollars. But McCain has latched onto Joe the plumber big time – and has now thrown out the "class warfare" phrase. McCain’s going to the old GOP playbook. Obama hits him by saying McCain will give $200 billion to wealthy corporations. McCain does not deny it. Laughs and goes back to Joe the plumber.

9:20 PM McCain gets agitated when Scheiffer asks him to respond to his question of what spending he will cut. He says that he wants an across the board spending freeze – a hatchet he says – then he will get out a scalpel. Not sure how you do surgery on a patient after you have just axed him to death.

9:23 PM McCain says he knows how to "save billions". He would cut ethanol subsidies, and is now on a riff about earmarks.

9:25 PM Obama says Bush turned a surplus into a deficit and McCain supported him on 4 out 5 budgets. Following the same policies as Bush, as McCain proposes, will not solve our problems.

9:27 PM McCain says he’s not George W Bush. I am glad he clarified 🙂

9:30 PM Obama says the reason he gets confused between Bush and McCain is that on the core issues that matter to the American people McCain vigorously supports Bush’s policies. This will set up a surreal situation where the nominee of the Republican party will now run away from the Republican president – live on national TV. This is great television entertainment!

9:35 PM Scheiffer asks each candidate to say the nasty things they say on the stump and in ads to each others faces. McCain responds by whining about how much money Obama has and if only Obama had done town hall meetings with him, his campaign wouldnt be so nasty. Obama points out that polls show that public thinks McCain is running a far more negative campaign. But he says he can take it for 3 weeks, but American people cant take 4 more years of failed economic policy. He wants to focus on issues that matter to the American people, and that McCain’s own campaign has said that if they talk about the economy they lose. This is a bad exchange for McCain. He got the opportunity to bring up Bill Ayers but did not do so. I bet the wingnuts are pissed right about now and Rich Lowry is not seeing any starbursts tonight.

9:40 PM McCain is whining about what John Lewis said. Obama responded by saying people in Palin rallies are saying "kill him" while McCain’s running mate keeps going. He says Lewis was responding to the hate coming out of the rallies. McCain says he defends his supporters and is outraged by John Lewis. This debate is going to blow up any minute now.

9:45 PM Oops. McCain is getting angry. Brings up Bill Ayers and ACORN in one breath. He demands that Obama explain! dammit! Rich Lowry’s starbursts are back!

9:50 PM Obama says he served on board with Ayers and a whole bunch of famous Republicans. That Ayers is now a professor of education. He dismisses the ACORN charge. McCain snickers. Obama says these attacks say more about McCain’s campaign than Obama’s. McCain goes on another Ayers riff and then says – gasp – his campaign is about helping American families solve their economic problems.

9:55 PM Obama defends his choice of running mate. Says Biden knows foreign policy better than anyone, has small town roots, fights for the ordinary man on the street. Now high comedy: McCain is defending his choice of Palin: "she’s a roll model to women and reformers.", "she’s a breath of fresh air", "she understands special needs children".

10:00 PM Obama declines to say whether Palin is qualified to be President – says American people will decide. McCain goes after Biden for his "cockamamie idea" on Iraq.

10:10PM We are talking about free trade. McCain tells Obama he knows nothing about Columbia and he would know more if he visited there. Free trade with Columbia is a no brainer (lobbying dollars at work again). Obama says he understands Columbia pretty well. Says labor leaders in Columbia are getting assassinated and there have not been prosecutions. He just made McCain look like an idiot.

10:15 PM On to healthcare….and McCain is getting angrier and not finishing his sentences.

10:16 PM Obama says his healthcare plan will allow everyone to keep their existing plans, but will reduce premiums by 25%. Those who cannot get health insurance can buy into same plan Senators have. McCain says he will give $5000 tax credit for health insurance. Tells Joe the plumber Obama will fine him if he doesnt insure his kids. Demands Obama say what the fine is. Obama looks into the camera and says to Joe the plumber "Zero" because small businesses are exempt from providing health insurance that large companies are not. McCain looks at Obama in surprise. Guess the Joe the plumber line didnt work out too well for McCain.

10:19 PM Obama says McCain will tax people’s health care benefits. Average policy costs $12000, McCain will give you $5000 so you are going to lose money under McCain’s plan. McCain admits he will tax health insurance benefits. Nice move.

10:25 PM Long Roe vs. Wade discussion. McCain says he would not use a litmus test for judges but then says judges that support Roe v. Wade would not meet his qualifications for judges. Then, McCain tells everyone Obama voted to kill infants that need medical attention. Obama tells McCain he just lied.

10:26 PM McCain calls Obama "eloquent" for the second time in the debate. Apparently being eloquent means you are a baaaad man! Speak like Sarah Palin instead.

10:30 PM On education, Obama brings up that McCain’s economic advisor called America’s students an "interest group" and said we cant fund all interest groups. McCain disses DC’s schools and says vouchers are the solution.

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There Will Be No Bradley Effect

With polls showing Barack Obama with a lead over John McCain both nationally and in battleground states, the conversation over the weekend turned to the reliability of these polls. With an African American running against a White candidate, it appears that the "Bradley Effect" is about to be tested.

The Bradley Effect (we in Virginia like to call it the Wilder Effect) is the supposed discrepancy between election results and the polls when African American candidates run against White candidates. It is claimed that some White voters lie to pollsters about voting for a Black candidate because of social desirability bias – in the voting booth however, they pull the lever for the White candidate. This phenomenon is based on the apparent discrepancy between the polls and the election results in 1982 when the African American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, ran against a white candidate for Governor of California. Bradley lost narrowly despite being ahead in the polls.

However, there will be no Bradley Effect on November 4th. If Barack Obama loses the election it will not be because he underperformed the polls because of a hidden racial bias.

Ironically, it will be the smears against Obama that will eliminate any Bradley Effect this year. Throughout this campaign, there has been a whisper campaign against Barack Obama. Last week the smear campaign took center stage when Sarah Palin launched it publicly from the stump. Instead of overtly appealing to racist feelings of some voters – instead of running explicitly against Obama as a Black man – the McCain campaign and their supporters have taken the more palatable approach. They have tried to link Obama to terrorists, they have implied he is Muslim, and they have implied he is Arab. They have tried to scare the voter by making Barack Hussein Obama a scary Arab Muslim Terrorist Man. In their smear campaign, they have been overwhelmingly successful.

The smear campaign has flushed out those voters who may be too uncomfortable to publicly say they won’t vote for a Black man, but feel much more comfortable saying they are uneasy about Obama because he may be "foreign". This openness and acceptability of being anti-Muslim or anti-Arab in our post 9/11 world is channeling much of the latent bias that may have contributed to the Bradley Effect. Recent campaign events have fueled the notion that Arabs and Muslims are acceptable bogeymen. In Minnesota last week, John McCain finally stood up to his supporters and pushed back against a woman who claimed Obama was an Arab. He corrected her by saying that Obama was a "citizen", but left on the table the notion that being Arab may be a disqualifier for a candidate. It is telling that in interviews after the rally, the woman who posed the question to McCain still insisted that Obama was an "Arab terrorist."

So, the Bradley Effect may have succumbed this election cycle to the more acceptable form of bias in our society today – that against Muslims and Arabs. This bias is so acceptable that voters are able to be more truthful with pollsters when asked for their voting preference. They are able to rationalize their racist fear of a Black man by accepting that he may be Arab or Muslim. This has contributed to more accurate polling this election cycle. Indeed, in the primaries this year, there was little evidence of the Bradley Effect. Even with the smears against Obama in full effect, or perhaps because of them, most pre-primary polls were fairly accurate. In some cases (for example, the Virginia primary), Obama’s election results significantly outperformed the polls because the African American turnout was under-polled.

It is worth noting that even with the McCain campaign in full smear mode last week, the polls showed Obama expanding his lead. The smears, it seems, will have flushed out the Bradley Effect on voting day by moving those who will be moved by these biases early. However, those voting based on racial fears does not appear to be a large enough voting bloc to tip the election in John McCain’s favor. The racist vote is already factored into John McCain’s polling numbers. This last point may explain why the McCain campaign today shifted tactics away from the smear campaign to a more issues oriented approach.

 

Posted in Politics, Society | 5 Comments