Watching West Virginia Results

11:28PM: With 76% reporting Hillary Clinton is winning 66% to 27%. The big news though is the much lower turnout than predicted.

9:23PM: With 20% reporting Hillary Clinton is up 63% to Obama 30%. The remaining 7% is going to John Edwards, who is on the ballot in West Virginia. The Edwards vote is keeping Clinton’s margin down and it looks like she is underperforming in some rural counties.

8:29PM: Results are starting to come in. With 1% of the precincts reporting Hillary Clinton is leading 56% to 36%.

7:34PM: At 7:30PM, as the polls closed, MSNBC called the race for Hillary Clinton. They are reporting that the exit polls show she is leading 2 to 1. We will watch to see what the margin will be and how big the turnout was.

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Predicting West Virginia

2008 West Virginia Democratic Primary Predictions

It’s time to take another crack at the primary season parlor game. Democrats and independents will be voting in the West Virginia Democratic primary tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is poised to win a landslide victory in the Mountain State. Barack Obama has already more or less conceded the state. The very few polls that have been done show Hillary Clinton with a 30 point plus lead. In the larger Democratic race the results tomorrow will not alter the outcome – Barack Obama already has an insurmountable lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction game, its a good one to play.

Since the polls are few and the state-wide margin is not really in doubt, I wanted to play the game at a county by county level. For the record, my state-wide prediction is that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama 70.9% to 29.1%. I predict a statewide turnout of 404,542 voters with Clinton getting 286,675 and Obama getting 117,863 votes. There are 665,234 registered Democrats and 156,199 registered independent voters in West Virginia. For comparison, the 2004 Democratic primary turnout was 252,839 voters.

West Virginia is a neighboring state and just a short drive from where I live. The Virginia counties to the west and south of me soon begin to resemble those in West Virginia – largely rural, Appalachian counties with breathtaking views. The West Virginia population is mainly White, with county median household incomes varying from $20,000 to just above $50,000 in a county close to the Washington DC metro area. The percentage of people living below the poverty line is as low as 9% in the counties nearest Washington DC to as high as 25% in most of the rural counties. It is beautiful country, but it is also a place where Bill Clinton is very fondly remembered. Barack Obama will receive below 10% of the vote in some West Virginia counties.

Here are my county-by-county predictions for tomorrow, based on demographic data and 2008 primary results in similar Appalachian counties in Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

 

County Total Votes Clinton Obama % Clinton % Obama
Barbour 3594 2979 615 82.9 17.1
Berkeley 7106 3979 3127 56 44
Boone 9571 8451 1120 88.3 11.7
Braxton 5202 4500 702 86.5 13.5
Brooke 7195 5274 1921 73.3 26.7
Cabell 20627 12789 7838 62 38
Calhoun 2069 1846 223 89.2 10.8
Clay 3541 3229 312 91.2 8.8
Doddridge 843 715 128 84.8 15.2
Fayette 11267 8800 2467 78.1 21.9
Gilmer 2394 1841 553 76.9 23.1
Grant 530 423 107 79.9 20.1
Greenbrier 8533 6357 2176 74.5 25.5
Hampshire 3485 2704 781 77.6 22.4
Hancock 9024 6651 2373 73.7 26.3
Hardy 2734 2174 560 79.5 20.5
Harrison 18725 13182 5543 70.4 29.6
Jackson 5722 4446 1276 77.7 22.3
Jefferson 6994 2301 4693 32.9 67.1
Kanawha 44454 22494 21960 50.6 49.4
Lewis 3843 3170 673 82.5 17.5
Lincoln 6901 6377 524 92.4 7.6
Logan 10890 9137 1753 83.9 16.1
McDowell 7426 5725 1701 77.1 22.9
Marion 18488 12738 5750 68.9 31.1
Marshall 8656 6968 1688 80.5 19.5
Mason 6627 5673 954 85.6 14.4
Mercer 12202 8712 3490 71.4 28.6
Mineral 4181 3102 1079 74.2 25.8
Mingo 10627 9373 1254 88.2 11.8
Monongalia 14606 6032 8574 41.3 58.7
Monroe 3011 2571 440 85.4 14.6
Morgan 1491 1120 371 75.1 24.9
Nicholas 7112 6109 1003 85.9 14.1
Ohio 9918 5514 4404 55.6 44.4
Pendleton 2285 1782 503 78 22
Pleasants 1918 1532 386 79.9 20.1
Pocahontas 2251 1828 423 81.2 18.8
Preston 4442 3642 800 82 18
Putnam 10478 5187 5291 49.5 50.5
Raleigh 14942 10086 4856 67.5 32.5
Randolph 8035 6219 1816 77.4 22.6
Ritchie 1069 945 124 88.4 11.6
Roane 2944 2579 365 87.6 12.4
Summers 3870 2933 937 75.8 24.2
Taylor 3774 3046 728 80.7 19.3
Tucker 2192 1819 373 83 17
Tyler 1395 1200 195 86 14
Upshur 3170 2495 675 78.7 21.3
Wayne 12238 9986 2252 81.6 18.4
Webster 3958 3574 384 90.3 9.7
Wetzel 5515 4544 971 82.4 17.6
Wirt 1488 1248 240 83.9 16.1
Wood 12547 8783 3764 70 30
Wyoming 6442 5791 651 89.9 10.1
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Subliminal Advertising From Hillary Clinton

Clinton's ad brings up Troopergate

[Via Democratic Underground]

Hillary Clinton is running a TV ad in West Virginia attacking Barack Obama on the gas tax issue. To make her point, her ad displays a newspaper article titled "Obama attacks Clinton’s gas tax plan". However, the article’s title doesn’t match the article’s contents  – it appears that the title has been superimposed on a different article. Look closely at the ad and you will see that the article flashed on screen is about "Troopergate". The article is about Eliot Spitzer’s "Troopergate" scandal. But who could forget the original "Troopergate" scandal made famous by Bill Clinton.

Does the Hillary Clinton campaign really want to remind people of "Troopergate" and all the other scandals of the Clinton era? We already know that the Clinton campaign is loose with the facts, but this is a bit too much.

The YouTube version of the ad is below:

Posted in Humor, Politics | 5 Comments

Hint Hint

Brought to you by the former Hillary supporters at Saturday Night Live.

Sadly, Hillary Clinton is digging for dirt. If it continues, we will be handing out Monicas quite liberally. Stop embarrassing yourself Senator.

 

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Dear Mr. Plouffe

To: David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

Dear Mr. Plouffe,

I have read with great alarm press reports that the Barack Obama campaign is in discussions to pay off the approximately $25 million campaign debt Hillary Clinton has generated in her increasingly desperate and destructive bid for the Democratic nomination. As one of over 1.5 million loyal contributors to the Obama for America campaign, I want to strongly and unequivocally express to you my opposition to any such plan.

Hillary Clinton has conducted one of the most divisive and racially charged Democratic primary campaigns in recent memory. She has waged this campaign while being bankrolled by a small group of wealthy Democratic power brokers and her personal fortune of over $109 million. As the campaign has gotten more desperate, her wealthy backers have threatened the Speaker of the House, the Democratic party chairman, and others to continue to back Hillary Clinton’s quixotic quest for the nomination. She has launched negative racially charged attacks, attempted to undermine the general election viability of the presumptive Democratic nominee, and disparaged your donors – we the American people – as "latte-drinkers", "eggheads" and "cultists". She has done this while being consistently and soundly defeated by the very people she has disparaged at the final metric of consequence in a democracy – the ballot box.

Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $11 million from her own fortune. She loaned this money to purchase negative ads against Barack Obama. She loaned this money knowing there was no possibility of her winning the nomination. Among the many people her campaign owes money is Mark Penn and his company. Mark Penn (who is owed about $5 million), her former chief strategist, was in large part responsible for her scorched-Earth campaign tactics. She also owes substantial sums to well-meaning small businesses that provided services to her campaign assuming that they would be paid back.

I can see a case being made to pay back money owed by her campaign to American businesses that have been cheated by her campaign. However, I can see no rationale to use our campaign contributions to pay back Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn and others involved with their shameful campaign. The responsibility to settle these debts lies with the Hillary Clinton campaign and her donors – not us. While the American people struggle to hold on to their homes as Washington tells them they have been irresponsible with their finances, it would be a grave insult for the Obama campaign – a campaign built on the aspirations of the American people – to bail out rich millionaires like Hillary Clinton and Mark Penn using the hard earned money of common American citizens.

I must make clear that I did not contribute to your campaign to have my hard earned money be diverted to Hillary Clinton’s or Mark Penn’s personal bank accounts. I contributed to Obama for America because I believe in the candidate and his vision of America. I exercised my first amendment rights, along with over 1.5 million others,  to make that vision a reality.

However, there now appears to be a real risk that my campaign contribution will end up in Hillary Clinton’s coffers. To clarify your position and reassure your supporters, I urge you to publicly offer a statement on your campaign’s position on this issue. Until that time, to avoid any misappropriation, I will withhold further contributions to your campaign. I am confident that the Obama for America campaign will make the right decision and resolve this matter without delay.

Sincerely,

Mash

 

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