Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

Lanny Davis, political hack, implodes.

The mainstream media has today caught up with the reality of the race. That reality has been constant since Obama mathematically won the race in February.

It took a decisive win in North Carolina and holding his ground in Indiana to bring about this realization. In winning last night Obama triumphed over Hillary Clinton’s last minute pandering on the gas tax. It was ultimately the pander that sunk Hillary Clinton’s stock with the media.

I have argued that the gas tax pander would backfire on Clinton. Today it appears that is exactly what happened.

Here’s New York magazine on the impact of the pander:

There was a certain you-had-to-be-there quality to the homestretch of the Indiana Democratic primary. Through most of last week, national newspapers and cable pundits stayed fixated on the Jeremiah Wright imbroglio. But over the past week, the headlines in Indiana turned to the split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the idea of a gas-tax “holiday.” So did the political ads flooding Hoosier airwaves. And the result was last night’s nasty surprise for Clinton.

It’s easy to see why Clinton was tempted to hop aboard the Pander Express, once John McCain floated the idea of suspending the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents a gallon for the summer. Giving some badly needed relief to truckers, farmers, and vacationers fit right in with the hash-slinger-in-a–Wal Mart–pantsuit image Hillary honed in Ohio, perfected in Pennsylvania, and was deploying all over Indiana. And when Obama derided the idea by saying it would only save consumers “pennies,” he seemed to be handing the Clintons one more opportunity to portray him as an out-of-touch elitist.

But as things turned out, when Hillary called for suspending the gas tax, she threw Obama the kind of rope he desperately had been seeking to pull himself out of the Wright train wreck. Wright screwed Obama as hard as any noncandidate has ever screwed an American presidential contender. And even after counterattacking and distancing himself from his former pastor, Obama was noticeably off his game. But the gas tax became a rare instance where Clinton and Obama directly and diametrically opposed each other on a policy issue, automatically generating headlines and coverage that helped push Wright out of the local news in Indiana.

Further, the gas tax turned the national media against Hillary over the weekend, because the Clinton campaign hadn’t bothered to line up (or just couldn’t find) a single expert to support suspending the tax. That left Clinton herself and surrogates like Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) insulting economists on national television, which looked ridiculous. It also left the media free to report the story without trying to be evenhanded and essentially to tell viewers that suspending the tax is a stupid idea.

Most importantly, the new debate let Obama rediscover his voice. He not only opposed the “holiday” on principle. In a way he hasn’t done on issues such as wearing a lapel flag pin, he also stated his objections loudly, pithily, and in keeping with the themes of his campaign. Liberal bloggers kept writing that Obama needed to argue that suspending the tax wouldn’t save drivers any money. Instead, he hammered away at it as a “gimmick” and a symptom of the Washington politics he says he wants to change.

…

Tragedy or poetic justice, Clinton went one pander too far in Indiana.

Remember. Gas tax. Gas tax. Gas tax.

1:14AM: MSNBC and CNN declare Indiana for Hillary Clinton after Lake county came in for Obama 55% to 45%. Obama needed around 59% in Lake county. Hillary Clinton eeked out a win with 50.9% to 40.1% wih a vote difference of 22,439 votes. In North Carolina Obama has won 56.7% to 41.9% with the rest going to presumably others (John Edwards?). Obama won North Carolina by 232,752 votes. It was a thumping tonight. Expect significant calls for her to drop out, if she doesnt bow out on her own. Expect significant super delegate movement to Obama starting tomorrow.

12:37AM: With 56% of Lake county reporting, Obama is winning the county 65% to 35%. The vote difference statewide is 16,609 in Clinton’s favor. The margin is closing fast.

12:33AM: NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her public appearances tomorrow.

12:21AM: Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her appearances tomorrow morning.

12:15AM: Gas tax. Gas tax. Gas tax.

11:48PM: Lake county has started to come in. With 28% of Lake county reporting Clinton’s lead just got cut in half. Obama is winning Lake county now 75% to 25% with the early votes coming from Gary, where Obama is heavily favored. Currently Clinton leads 51% to 49%. The vote difference now is 19,790. This is a nail biter.

11:41PM: Everyone is waiting for Lake county in Indiana to report. In North Carolina Barack Obama won in a landslide. Currently with 98% reporting, Obama leads 56% to 42%. He is leading by more than 220,000 votes – that is a bigger number of votes than Clinton won Pennsylvania by. Barack Obama has erased Clinton’s gains in Pennsylvania and then gained some more tonight. North Carolina was devestating to Clinton. And a close result in Indiana was the game changer. Its game over for Hillary Clinton.

11:35PM: I forgot to mute Lanny Davis when he popped up again on CNN. Lanny said he is "happy" with these results. Then he went completely delusional and almost started to cry. The whole time he had this crazy grin on his face. I am now worried that the man is coming unhinged. Someone please take him home. CNN should not waste airtime with this hack.

11:06PM: According to Tim Russert, there are about 220,000 votes left in Obama strongholds in Indiana. The vote difference is about 39,000 right now. That means Obama would have to win just under 59% of the remaining votes. To put this in perspective, Obama carried Marion county with 67% of the vote. The question is whether he can muster that kind of a margin in Lake county which is yet to report. At this point, it could go either way.

10:55PM: Hillary Clinton is speaking in Indiana. She is declaring victory and says she will keep fighting. She is perhaps giving the worst speech of her long campaign. She is rambling. This was not the moment for this speech. She is going down in a sad and pathetic way, instead of going down with grace. Its quite sad. Bill Clinton, standing behind her, cannot hide his disappointment.

10:32PM: While we wait for Indiana to come in, please donate to Barack Obama and fuel his people-powered campaign. Last night the Obama campaign hit their astounding goal of 1.5 million donors. Help push that number up further. After tonight’s victory he and the American people deserve it.

10:00PM: New Rule: James Carville and Lanny Davis must from now on be shunned. I pledge to put the TV on mute everytime these hacks pop up on screen. In the meantime, Indiana remains a 4 point race with 79% reporting. NBC News still has it "too close to call". The sound you hear is the low spark of super delegates making their way toward Barack Obama.

9:36PM: With 73% reporting in Indiana the margin is now Clinton leading 52% to 48%. We are still waiting for at least two Obama strongholds to report. There are already some surprises in the results. Obama carried St. Joseph county, home of South Bend, and a Catholic stronghold. How the Catholic vote broke out will be interesting to look at. He also unexpectedly won neighboring Elkhart county by 18%.

9:14PM: MSNBC just changed their designation for Indiana from "too early to call" to "too close to call". That is significant. Obama strongholds are yet to come in with now only a 6 point margin between the two candidates with 68% reporting. Clinton may still win Indiana, and most likely will, but the margin is going to be very thin either way.This is shaping up to be a disastrous night for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

9:00PM: More than half of Marion county has come in. One northwestern county is starting to come in. The margin is tightening fast. With 65% of precincts reporting it is now Clinton 53% to Obama 47%. Surprisingly, it is coming down to African American turnout in Indiana. It is going to be close. In North Carolina with 23% precincts reporting Obama leads 61% to 37%.

8:52PM: While we wait for the results to come in, I want to get two things off my chest. Harold Ford Jr is an idiot (if you are watching MSNBC you will know exactly what I mean). And I am with Kos when he says Harold Ickes is a scumbag.

8:39PM: I am a little puzzled by CBS’s call, especially now that none of the other networks have called the race in Indiana.  With Obama strongholds not reporting in yet, it would have to either be a blowout or a premature call. But with 52% reporting Clinton now leads Obama by 54% to 46%. Most rural counties have reported in, so the margin will be closing fast.

8:18PM: CBS has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton, but the other networks have not. Marion county is still coming in and the northwestern counties have not reported yet. But with CBS calling it, its only a matter of time until other networks call it for Clinton.

Vote totals are starting to come in for North Carolina. with 9% of precincts reporting Obama is winning 64% to 34%. The popular vote margin is likely to be huge.

7:48PM: Interestingly, Hillary Clinton’s margins in the rural Indiana counties appear to be less, and in some cases significantly less, than similar counties in Pennsylvania. With 15% reporting, Obama is ahead in Marion county 60% to 40%.

7:44PM: The northwestern Indiana counties have not reported yet. Marion county is just starting to report. If the networks call the Indiana race before those counties come in, then you can be sure that Clinton wins with a wide margin. If they wait until those counties come in, then this race is very close.

7:38PM: Tim Russert on MSNBC is calling Obama’s victory in North Carolina "decisive". Now we wait to see the actual numbers as they come in. With 21% of Indiana precincts reporting Clinton leads 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first. Indianapolis starting to come in now with Obama leading early (with 8% reporting) 57% to 42% in Marion county.

7:30PM: As polls close in North Carolina, MSNBC and CNN call it for Barack Obama.

7:27PM: In the middle of all of this, Barack Obama picks up the endorsement of a North Carolina super delegate.

7:14PM: Polls closed in Indiana at 7pm. MSNBC has it "too early to call". CNN has county by county break downs of results coming in. Currently with 9% of the precincts reporting Clinton leads Obama 57% to 43%. Rural counties are coming in first, so expect that margin to tighten. North Carolina polls close at 7:30PM.