Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying

Barack Obama’s victory speech delivered at Madison, Wisconsin after winning Virginia, Maryland and DC:

Virginia County-by-County results (as of 2/13/2008 1:00 AM):

The map below shows how total Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton is shaping up to be. Obama (counties in dark blue) has taken most of the heavily populated regions of Virginia. Hillary Clinton has taken the sparsely populated rural southwestern parts of Virginia.

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Virginia is at the polls today along with Maryland and DC. Polls in Virginia close at 7pm, about half an hour from now.

I cast my ballot this morning at my local polling station. I received 4 email reminders from the Obama campaign between yesterday and this morning to go and vote today. I received no calls or emails from the Clinton campaign. The Obama emails contained helpful links to look up my polling place. At the polling station in Northern Virginia there was one Hillary Clinton sign and multiple Obama signs. There were also Obama signs all over the neighborhood. Of special note was the enthusiastic and friendly Ron Paul volunteer (in the picture above) who greeted voters as they headed toward the polling station.

There was a steady stream of voters at my station. It appeared that the turnout was heavier than normal for my neighborhood. However, the weather in Northern Virginia has turned icy for the afternoon rush hour. Its not clear how much it will impact the late voter turnout. At my work place, most of my co-workers who had not voted in the morning left early today and were headed for their respective polling stations. CNN is reporting that turnout is high in Northern Virginia, Richmond and the Charlottesville area – all areas that are strongholds for Obama voters. Richmond turnout is reported to be record-breaking.

If the pre-voting polls hold, this could be a big night for Barack Obama in Virginia.

Updates to follow as the results come in…

UPDATE (2/12/2008 7:08 PM): CNN and NBC have already projected that Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in Virginia. Now it remains to be seen how wide the margin of victory will be and how many delegates Obama will pick up from Virginia.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 8:36 PM): Barack Obama is the projected winner in the District of Columbia. Maryland poll closing has been extended to 9:30PM due to traffic delays voters are encountering on the icy roads. Hillary Clinton’s deputy campaign manager just resigned.

The Virginia primary is shaping up to be a landslide. Currently with 61% of the precincts reporting Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 62% to 37%. The exit polls from Virginia is also shaping up to be bad news for Hillary Clinton. Obama took the Black vote 90% to 10%. Obama and Clinton split the White vote. Obama won amongst men and women. Clinton won amongst White women only. Obama won two to one amongst independents. Obama also won the Latino vote in Virginia. As was predicted Obama won everywhere in Virginia except rural Southwestern Virginia. This was an overwhelming victory for Barack Obama in Virginia.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 9:30PM): The networks are reporting that as the polls close in Maryland Barack Obama will win by a "significant" margin. This is shaping up to be a huge night for Barack Obama.

UPDATE (2/12/2008 9:54 PM): With 87% of the precincts in Virginia reporting Barack Obama’s victory is turning out to be a landslide. He is now ahead of Hillary Clinton 63% to 36%.

 UPDATE (2/13/2008 1:00 AM): A genuine thumping:

• Virginia: Barack Obama 64%, Hillary Clinton 35% (99% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 28 more delegates than Clinton.
• Maryland: Barack Obama 60%, Hillary Clinton 37% (69% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 4 more delegates than Clinton.
• District of Columbia: Obama 75%, Hillary Clinton 24% (98% precincts reporting). Obama picks up 5 more delegates than Clinton.

The first time I heard the name Barack Obama was in 2004 when he delivered the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. It was a rousing speech. The speech rivaled Mario Cuomo’s nominating speech at the 1992 Convention. The buzz at the time was that we were looking at a future President of the United States.

When Barack Obama entered the Presidential race last year I was excited. I knew the man could deliver a great speech, now I needed to hear his vision for America.

It was not until South Carolina did I hear what I was looking for. After winning the South Carolina primary Barack Obama delivered the speech that earned my vote. I was searching for Bobby Kennedy and on that evening I found his 21st century heir. If Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency it is the South Carolina speech that historians will point to as the pivotal moment of his campaign.

Tomorrow Virginia votes along with Maryland and the District of Columbia. I will cast my vote in the Virginia Democratic primary for Senator Barack Obama, the next President of the United States.

Looking ahead to March 4th, Barack Obama’s campaign has released what I believe is the most powerful television ad of this election season. The ad has begun to play in both Ohio and Texas. For a number of reasons the ad also touches me personally:

Go vote tommorrow Virginia. Yes we can.

After this weekend’s impressive wins in every state (and the Virgin Islands) that held a primary or caucus, Barack Obama is riding a wave of momentum while Hillary Clinton’s campaign appears to be in disarray. After today’s big win for Obama in Maine (where Obama was behind in the polls), the Clinton campaign stole the headlines – but not in a good way. The Clinton campaign announced tonight that its campaign manager had been replaced.

To date, Barack Obama has won 19 states to Hillary Clinton’s 10. Increasingly the map appears to be filling in for Obama. He is also now ahead in the number of pledged delegates. With a fundraising edge and rising in the polls, Barack Obama heads to the Beltway Primaries this Tuesday when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will hold their primaries. Obama is expected to handily carry both Maryland and DC.

Virginia is considered the state where Clinton may be able to slow Obama’s momentum. However, a series of polls over the last few days show Obama with significant leads in Virginia. The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Obama up by 16 points (Obama 53%, Clinton 37%). The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 18 points (Obama 55%, Clinton 37%). The latest SurveyUSA poll has Obama ahead by 20 points (Obama 59%, Clinton 39%). A poll taken by InsidersAdvantage also shows Obama with a 15 point lead (Obama 52%, Clinton 37%).

The numbers inside the polls also show Obama with significant advantages in Virginia. Both the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls show that Obama is even with Clinton amongst white voters in Virginia, while the Mason-Dixon poll shows Clinton leading amongst white voters (there is no demographic breakdowns in the InsidersAdvantage poll).  All polls have Obama leading by wide margins amongst Black voters in Virginia. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama leads amongst men and women, and all age groups except those over 65. Clinton still leads Obama amongst Hispanics, although the margin is shrinking. The SurveyUSA poll also shows Obama winning in every region of Virginia except the rural Shanandoahs to the Southwest. If the polls hold up, Obama is headed for a big win in Virginia this Tuesday.

If Obama takes the three primaries this Tuesday and wins the remainder of the contests in February, as he is likely to do, Hillary Clinton’s campaign will be reeling by the time the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio are held. Although the most recent polls show Clinton ahead in Ohio and Texas, both states are likely to tighten by the end of this month. With a bigger war chest and the momentum Obama will continue to gain in the polls. If he wins throughout February it is quite likely Ohio will move into the Obama column (a la Missouri). The Clinton campaign is now hoping to survive until March 4th and hold the line in Ohio and Texas. But as Rudy Giuliani’s experience in Florida showed, a string of losses can be debilitating. The early leads in the polls tend to evaporate as the other candidate keeps racking up wins.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign relied very much on the air of inevitability. She was supposed to have the Democratic nomination sewn up by Super Tuesday. However, that inevitability was demolished by Obama’s strong showing last week. Now it is a horserace in which Barack Obama caught up and is now pulling away. The conventional wisdom is that the race is so close that it may go all the way to the Democratic National Convention. However, a long string of losses for Hillary Clinton in February will drastically change the media buzz. Tuesday night, if Barack Obama has a big night (and that means winning Virginia), the headlines about the "neck and neck" race will suddenly change. The money may then begin to dry up and the superdelegates may start to move toward the frontrunner. If that happens this race is over.

You can contribute to Barack Obama’s campaign through my ActBlue page: