Let The Superdelegates Decide

Throughout this race the Clinton campaign has maintained that the superdelegates should use their own judgment in deciding which candidate to back. Clinton has maintained that superdelegates are not beholden to the will of the people. Her thuggish backers have even tried to blackmail Speaker Pelosi and the DCCC – superdelegates – into backing Senator Clinton.

I agree. I think the superdelegates should decide this race. And they should decide it in favor of the candidate who is likely to actually win the presidency – Barack Obama.

As has been noted many times, Hillary Clinton cannot win the nomination. However, it appears that as long as there is a mathematical possibility that Clinton can get to the required number of delegates (2024), she will not drop out of the race. Therefore, the only way to end this race before it does further damage to the eventual Democratic nominee is for Barack Obama to get to the magic 2024 number. This is where the superdelegates have a role to play to prove to us un-super voters that they deserve their electoral capes.

Currently, the race stands at approximately 1412 pledged delegates for Barack Obama and 1251 pledged delegates for Hillary Clinton. With committed superdelegates factored in, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 1627 to 1497. Ten races remain with the following delegate counts:

If we project out the remaining 10 races all the way to the last primary on June 3rd, giving Hillary Clinton hefty winning margins in Pennsylvania, Guam, West Virginia and Kentucky, at the end of all the primaries Barack Obama will likely lead Hillary Clinton 1889 delegates to 1801 delegates as shown in the table below:

There are currently 333 uncommitted superdelegates. To clinch the nomination, Barack Obama will need 135 uncommitted superdelegates to back him, that is 40% of the uncommited superdelegates. In other words, if at the end of the primaries on June 3rd 135 additional superdelegates commit to Barack Obama, this race is officially over.

To decisively end the race after the May 6th primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, Obama would have to pick up 226 superdelegates as shown in the table below:

However, it is quite plausible that after the remaining big states have voted by May 6th, having the extra 135 superdelegates will be more than sufficient. The writing will be written boldly on the wall, and even the most fervent funders of Hillary Clinton’s campaign will not want to throw away money on such a lost cause.

So, the magic number of superdelegates is probably around 135 for Barack Obama. If by May 6th he has reached this magic number, expect Hillary Clinton to concede soon thereafter.

Already the superdelegate endorsements for Barack Obama are rolling in, with Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Bob Casey, and Senator Amy Klobuchar adding to Obama’s total. There is now news that all 7 members of North Carolina’s congressional delegation are poised to endorse Barack Obama. The superdelegates are beginning to exercise that judgment Clinton keeps reminded them of. The final verdict is likely to come on or around May 6th.