Six days until the election, and then this happens! 🙂
You know your presidential campaign is in serious trouble when your vice presidential pick is planning her 2012 run already. I have to hand it to the McCain campaign, they sure are a team of mavericks.
Run, Sarah, Run!
This is Barack Obama’s 30 minute prime time event that aired tonight at 8pm. There was a live portion from his rally in Florida at the end that is not included in the above video.
Let’s face it. John McCain is no longer running against Barack Obama in this race. He is running against Sarah Palin, and vice versa. According to the McCain campaign, Palin has "gone rogue", and become a "diva". Now a top McCain advisor is calling Palin a "whack job". That, seems to me, is a sign of a campaign in turmoil. Sarah Palin wants to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, but the baton handoff from McCain to Palin is apparently not going smoothly.
With one week to go, the trajectory of the race appears to be set. Barring an extraordinary external event, only one thing could alter the arc of the race at this point: if Obama supporters fail to go to the polls on November 4th.
Barack Obama has begun his closing argument, and to help him, tomorrow he is being joined by the Big Dog. Bill Clinton, the master of timing, will appear together for the first time with Barack Obama tomorrow at a rally in Florida. That event, and Obama’s 30 minute prime-time television program, should dominate the news cycle all of tomorrow.
So, its prediction time. I have my shoe ready in case I have to eat it on election night. Here’s how I think election day will play out:
The battleground has shifted decisively in Barack Obama’s favor. A number of states that were contested just a few weeks ago are now firmly in Obama’s column. Others, perennial Republican states, are now genuine toss-ups. This election is being played out in red states. This has forced McCain to try to win a big blue state. Hence, Pennsylvania. But, while McCain throws resources into Pennsylvania Obama is about to pick his pocket in Ohio and Florida. In the end, McCain will probably lose all three – a stunning development for a Republican presidential candidate.
And, of course, there is Virginia. Obama now has a solid lead here, and I see no indication that McCain can close the gap. Virginia will be the bell weather on election day. If Virginia is called for Obama early next Tuesday night, the election is over and we will be on landslide watch.
I predict a national popular vote margin of 53.2% to 46.8% for Barack Obama. I predict an electoral college win of 375 to 163 for Barack Obama.
I predict John McCain will win Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and South Carolina.
I predict Barack Obama will win Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC. Obama will also win the battleground states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Indiana looks very good for Obama. My sense is there is enough enthusiasm on the ground there to pull out a narrow win for Obama.
I am tempted to put Georgia in Obama’s column, but I think I will hold off. All in all, this is headed toward a landslide.
So, what are your predictions?
Barack Obama is within striking distance of winning deep red Georgia next Tuesday. The latest poll out of Georgia shows a statistical tie. If McCain loses Georgia he will lose it as part of a larger national Barack Obama landslide.
Down ballot the Georgia Senate race is heating up. Democrat Jim Martin is in a dead heat with Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.
Chambliss won his senate seat in 2002 by beating Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Senator Max Cleland in one of the sleaziest campaigns in recent times. Chambliss questioned Cleland’s patriotism and played the fear card to the hilt. Here’s a Chambliss ad from 2002:
Georgia now has a chance to retire Saxby Chambliss and his brand of politics. Next Tuesday night, this is the Senate race (except for the expected Mark Warner rout in Virginia) I will be paying the most attention to. And so will Max Cleland.
